[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 

False breakout above 6538 (high 6545) following the US CPI report

Leaves .6479-90 needing to hold to keep a bid although 6500 is clearly pivotal in setting the tone going forward.

Below 6479 would expose 6447 as a target.

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD

Trend: Up BUT consolidating between 6479-6538

6538 has been a tough resistance, beyond that 6550 blocks a void to almost .6700

Support on dips while above 6479-90. stronger bid while above .6500

Below 6479 would tilt momentum the other way.

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD

Momentum: up BUT

Still faces a double top around .6538. Beyond that .6550 blocks a void to almost .6700

Support on dips while above .6479, stronger bid while above .6500

Below 6479 would tilt momentum the other way.

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD

Momentum: up BUT

Faces a double top around .6538. Beyond that .6550 blocks a void to almost .6700

Support on dips while above .6479, stronger bid while above .6500

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows…

.. the dollar trading mixed

USDJPY up, EURUSD about unchanged, AUDUSD and NZDUSD down

Suggests sell JPY orders vs. the AUD and NZD

Gold is firmer

US stocks steady

Waiting for

ECB rate decision (25bp cut widely expected)

US weekly jobless claims

[GV News]

SocGen’s Overnight Economic News Summary

— US dollar mildly bid with stocks, United States Treasury yields consolidate overnight gains after upside surprise on JOLTS job openings. U.S. 50% tariff on steel/aluminium imports take effect on Wednesday. U.S./European Union trade representatives Greer/Sefcovic meet Wednesday in Paris.

— Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic: in no rush to cut rates, want to see “a lot” more progress on inflation. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook: Tariff-led price increases to complicate rate policy.

— Day ahead: U.S. ADP employment, ISM services. Fed speakers Bostic and Cook. Bank of Canada forecast to stay on hold at 2.75%. Poland’s central bank to stay on hold at 5.25%. The Czech Republic’s consumer price index.

— Australia’s Q1 gross domestic product growth is 0.2% quarter over quarter (1.3% year over year) versus 0.6% in Q4 2024, below forecast. Household spending up 0.4% quarter over quarter, government spending flat, private investment up 0.7%, net trade subtracts 0.1%. AUDUSD flat at 0.6462.

— South Korea’s CPI eases to 1.9% year over year in May, core down a tick to 2.0%, paving way for further Bank of Korea policy loosening. KRW bid after Democratic candidate Lee Jae-myung wins presidential election, defeats Kim Moon-soo of the incumbent People Power Party.

— Nikkei +1.0%, EUR 10-year IRS unchanged at 2.52%, Brent crude -0.4% at $65.4/barrel, Gold +0.1% at $3,360/oz.

 

Nikkei Chart

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD

Underperforming after hitting a wall at .6500

At the risk of repeating myself, low so has been the “50” level (6450).far

Contains downside while 6450 holds…mood would turn if broken but layers of support to 6407 should it give way.

AUDUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAPP shows…

… the dollar trading firmer but well below yesterday’s highs

AUDUSD weakest followed by EURUSD

GOLD is down but well above Thursday’s low

US stocks steady

US bonds steady after yields fell yesterday

Month end today – stay alert for the 4PM London fix

April PCE and Chicago PMI

[GVI Forex 2]

What’s Hot and What’s Not?

What’s Hot

USD firmer: GBP (hot) vs EUR (i.e. EURGBP weaker)

Bitcoin… continues into unchartered territory but faces a tough obstacle at 112000

What’s Not?

EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD

GOLD down after failing to test 3348

What’s lukewarm

US stocks going sideways after bounce off the low

US bonds… yields remain elevated but off its highs

[GVI Forex 2]

What’s Hot and Not Hot?

What’s Hot?

XAUUSD (GOLD): Very hot: About filling opening week gap (3203) and then blasting through 3252-65 resistance

USDJPY: Down after filling opening week gap around 145.50 but off earlier low (144.08) so not as hot as earlier

EURUSD trying to heat up (i.e. back above 1.1250) after being not hot earlier but still in its range.

What’s Not Hot?

AUDUSD down after dovish RBA rate cut

US bonds with yields rebounding from early lows

US stocks down on the day

[GVI Forex 2]

For Seinfeld fans, remember their pilot being “It’s a show about nothing.”

Except for AUDUSD (down nearly 1%, all others have so far been a day about nothing.

With that said. USDJPY 145 (still below) and EURUSD 1.1250 (currently below) are pivotal.

Crude getting hit… GOLD catching a bid… US 10 year yield back above 4.50% at 4.52% and stocks off (bad mix)

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 1 HOUR – What AT is showing

Once again, it’s the reaction to news that matters with AUDUSD falling after the dovish RBA rate cut

If 6388-95 holds, downside will be contained… if not, key 6355 comes on the radar

Back above 6408 needed to slow the risk.

[GVI Forex 2]

.Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

Tough Tuesday trading

… the dollar trading mixed to slightly weaker with follow through so far proving difficult on both sides

USDJPY fell after closing its opening week gap

.. AUDUSD weaker after dovish RBA rate cut

GOLD up a touch but still in its tight range

US stocks lower

US bond yields lower, fully reversing yesterday’s downgrade ruse

No key U.S. data today, more Fedspeak

Geopolitics: Elusive Ukraine-Russia peace talks, Iran nuclear deal seems a long shot

 

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR – What AT is showing

Upside failure to establish 6500+ and test 6524 have forced a retracement.

Key level is at 6355. an inviting target but only below there would confirm the end of this up episode.

One change now is that there are no key stops to run on the upside unless .6501 is taken ouit.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR – What the Amazing Trader is saying

Along with the NZD, the clear outperformer, up almost 1.5% today

One obstacle remains at .6464 ahead of the recent .6514 high.

Support on dips while above .6400-20

AT = The Amazing Trader… get your 30 day trial by clicking on the Amazing Trader link in the menu bar at the top of this page)

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my premise that the forex market lives to run stops, it would take a break of Monday’s dollar highs to trigger more stops

EURUSD 1.1065
USDJPY 148,65
GBPUSD 1.3140
USDCHF ,8476
USDCAD 1.4015
AUDUSD 6356

[GVI Forex 2]

Dollsr highs today

EURUSD 1.1082
USDJPY 148.23
GBPUSD 1.3159
USDCHF .8468
AUDUSD .6392
USDCAD 1.3980
NZDUSD .5941

Why are these levels important?

Deck is cleared of USD buy stops until/unless any of these levels are taken out.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows…

…The dollar is trading softer after yesterday’s surge higher

EURUSD bounced from support just below 1.12 but iss till below yesterday’s 1.1265 breakdown level

USDJPY backed off from another 2nd failure to hold above test 146+ but remains above 145… tested 145.08 (resistance broken yesterday)

AUDUSD and USDCAD about unchanged

GOLD is back above 3300 after extending its low to 3275

US stocks are about unchanged

BTCUSD holding firm after soaring above $103K

Light. calendar: CDA job, full slate of Fed speakers

US-China meeting is on Saturday so there is a headline risk over the weekend ahead of next week’s open

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – WHAT IS AT SHOWING?

Failure above .6500 followed by the break/close below 6434 ends the latest episode/leg to the upside

Not much below it so watch 6434 as below it exposes a deeper move down but only above .6515 would revive the uptrend.

AT = The Amazing Trader (see link is in the top menu bar for a 30 day trial)

[Belgrade Bobby]

AUDUSD Daily

Aussie is in daily Uptrend, and looks pretty bullish to me.

Obvious target is 0.67650 – long term declination resistance line originating back to February 2021.

Resistances: 0.65150, 0.65450 & 0.66550

Supports: 0.64450, 0.63950 & 0.63450

As long as above 0.6350 it should continue Upwards

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows…

…the dollar trading firmer after the news of US-China talks (on Saturday in Geneva) caught the market wrongfooted just after the NY close. Talks are said to be preliminary but any hint of a thaw sees a reaction.

Dollar firmer… EURUSD lags as EUR getting the cross flows (1.3350 remains pivotal while within 1.13-1.14) … JPY underperforming after failing to hold below 142.50…EURGBP extending its rebound above .8500 has been a weight on GBPUSD so far (note BOIE meets tomorrow)… AUDUSD failed to hold .6500+

GOLD is back below 3400

Stocks are up but so far not following through on the knee jerk reaction to the US-China news

Key focus today is on the FOMC decision where no change in rates is widely expected

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows…

Dollar ending the day on a soft note

USDJPY trading below 142.50… if break holds then 141.50-00 at risk… one thought is Asian currency buying is spilling over to the JPY

EURUSD above 1.1350… earlier lag reversed after EURGBP bounce back to .8500, reversed earlier selling (low .8462)

GBPUSD led earlier, now lagging on the bounce in EURGBP

AUDUSD making another run at .6500 (tested)… if firmly above then clear path for .6550

[GV News]

Dollar under pressure as Asian counterparts charge higher

Key points:

·         Taiwan dollar steadies after surging at start of week

·         Hong Kong buys $7.8 billion to maintain currency peg

·         Investors still selling U.S. dollars

 

The dollar struggled to make headway on Tuesday as an unprecedented two-day surge in its Taiwanese counterpart spilled over to other regional peers and highlighted the fragility of the U.S. currency.

The past two-day sharp moves in the Taiwan dollar subsided during the session, but Hong Kong’s de-facto central bank intervened to stop the local currency from strengthening and China’s yuan jumped in its return from an extended break.

Investors were also awaiting actual progress in trade negotiations with the United States and evidence of a thaw in Sino-U.S. relations, as opposed to just hints from officials.

The Taiwan dollar  on Monday surged to a three-year high of 29.59 per dollar, having leapt 8% in two days, in a move which coincided with the end of U.S.-Taiwan trade talks in Washington. It was last slightly weaker at 30.185 per dollar.

The Hong Kong dollar  was also testing the strong end of its trading band between 7.75 and 7.85 per dollar, which prompted the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to buy $7.8 billion (HK$60.5 billion) earlier in the day to prevent the currency from breaking its peg to the U.S. dollar.

The onshore yuan  was 0.7% higher at 7.2212 per dollar following the reopen of trade after an extended break, while its offshore counterpart USDCNH strayed not too far from a six-month high at 7.2135.

Currencies like the Australian dollar and the yen also benefited from the fallout, with the Aussie AUDUSD last hovering near Monday’s five-month high at $0.6467.

The yen USDJPY steadied at 143.69 per dollar, having risen 0.9% in the previous session.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD WEEKLY CHART – 6500 looms

Up almost 10% in less than 5 weeks and trading to a new 2025 high that now faces a key pivotal level at 65000

6550 on the radar if 6500, which will set the tone going forward, is regained.

Keeps a bid as long as 6450 holds as support. .

[GVI Forex 2]

Heatmap:

Dollar feels offered but is actually up on the day (closest to flat is USDJPY), biggest losers are the AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows ,,,

,,, the dollar backing off following the late day spike on Trump comments, specifically about not firing Fed Chair Powell and also a glimmer of hope on the tariff front.

Looking at the HEATMAP, FX rates are back to around the levels seen at Tuesday’s close just before the Trump headlines hit… AUDUSD has been an outperformer

Stocks, though, have maintained their gains, perhaps more on hope than fact so far.

XAUUSD is off its low but still feeling the effects of yesterday’s sell-off after testing 3500

Data on WED: EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Apr)

REMINDER: OUR SITE WILL BE DOWN PART OF TODAY AS WE INSTALL A FULL SITE UPGRADE… IF YOU LOSE ACCESS CHECK BACK LATER WHEN THE SITE UPGRADE REACHES YOU INTERNET SERVER

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog

Weekly Chart Outlook: AUDUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

…the dollar getting smashed across-the-board , led by the EUR, as the trade war with China heats up… main laggard is the AUDUSD… EURUSD
looma, should be tough

US bond yields remain elevated while stocks are down…as noted higher bond yields and falling stocks are a bad combination for a currency (e.g. selling of dollar assets)

Gold continued to move highernew record, surging past 3200

Looking ahead: US PPI, U of M consumer sentiment

Watch inflation expectation in U of M consumer sentiment
U of M consumer sentiment

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP show…

… the dollar TRADING MIXED ahead of Wednesday when traditional tariffs kick in…

Price action suggests a faint hope Trump will blink but no sign of it yet

USDJPY backing off 148 as US bond yields back off a touch after rising sharply yesterday m

EURUSD backing off earlier high after pausing below 1.10 (HIGH 1.0992)

AUDUSD outperforming after finding support below .6000

US stocks up bit within yesterday’s ranges

No key Sara due… watch how markets react to news headlines fir clues

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD MONTHLY CHART – BIGGEST LOSER

While Australia avoided the wrath of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, it has been the biggest loser today, down nearly 3,50% currently after trading even lower earlier (low .6049).

I assume this is fallout from the impact on China from the risk of a trade war with the USX.

As the chart shows there is little on the monthly until 5500 so use 6000-6200 as a range… 6000 needing to hold to contain the downside… 6200+ needed to deflect the risk