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What to Do When a Stop Loss Is Not a Stop
XAUUSD (GOLD)
Performing technically…
Held our 3310 support and then bounced off this key support
To give legs to the bounce off this double bottom and put 3377 back in play, 3340, 3352 and 3357 would need to be regained.
Break of 3310 would turn it into a downtrend.
Otherwise it is more chop in a 3310-77 range.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART
What’s Hot and What’s Not?
What’s hot
Dollar is firmer but not hot enough to take out yesterday’s USD highs vs. the EUR, JPY and GBP while AUD has been the underperformer after a weak jobs report
US stocks are up, NAS100 closest to testing its record high
US bonds are up (yields lower)… 10 year continues to stall below 4.50%
What’s not
XAUUSD is lower but held and then bounced from our 3310 key support.
Trump jawboning Powell is like the boy who cried wolf unless he is willing to fire him
Trading Tip: Forex market moves when there are KEY stops to run.
Closest stops are on the USD upside (e.g. below EURUSD 1.1562 , GBPUSD 1.3365, USDJPY 149.18)
Farthest away are at USD lows set yesaterday.
This suggests a more vulnerable USD upside but only if the stop levels come into view.
Same case can be made for intra-day highs and lows as there are generally stops above/beloiw them.
When there are no stops to run markets often turn into a range.
Why Meme Coins Are Surging Today: FLOKI, BONK, and Pudgy Penguins in Focus
In just the last 24 hours, meme coins have surged by 7.2%, led by standout performances from FLOKI, Bonk, and the unexpectedly booming Fartcoin. FLOKI alone has shot up by a massive 32.8%, while Bonk jumped 16.2%, and Fartcoin rallied 23.5%.
Other notable gains include Dogecoin up 7.4%, Shiba Inu by 5.5%, and Pepe by 6%. This rally comes as the crypto market rides a wave of bullish sentiment, fueled by signs of an incoming altseason and renewed momentum behind the pro-crypto GENIUS Act in the U.S.
The current total market cap of meme coins stands at an impressive $79.87 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of over $33 billion, according to CoinGecko. Apart from Pudgy Penguins and Pump.fun, all other top meme coins have seen notable green candles.
FLOKI, Bonk, and Fartcoin Dominate the Charts
FLOKI has taken center stage. With a 24-hour trading volume explosion of over 402%, the coin has managed a 42% rise over the past seven days, and its market cap now sits at $1.28 billion. This kind of sustained momentum, combined with community hype, is creating serious FOMO across social platforms.
Bonk, the Solana-based meme coin, is riding high too. It’s gained nearly 69% over the week, with 16.2% of that coming just in the last day. With its market cap nearing $3 billion and trading volume surpassing it, Bonk’s surge is closely tied to Solana’s increasing DeFi activity and broader bullish pressure.
Then comes Fartcoin—a name few took seriously until now. Posting an eye-popping 23.5% daily gain, it’s suddenly all over crypto Reddit and Telegram trading chats. While the fundamentals may be light, the market doesn’t care. The meme economy is running on vibes and volatility.
Bullish Macro Sentiment and the Altcoin Revival
The crypto market as a whole is heating up fast. Bitcoin recently touched $123K, gaining 6.8% over the past week. Ethereum surged by nearly 25%, while XRP exploded by 32.9%. Cardano, Solana, and Dogecoin also saw significant gains, with Cardano leading that pack with a 29.5% rise.
Is this the start of altcoin season?
It certainly looks like it. Bitcoin dominance is slipping, and altcoins—including meme coins—are outperforming. The Fear and Greed Index is deep in “Greed” territory, and institutional interest is shifting toward alternatives like Ethereum and Solana.
Floki Chart
DXY Rises to Over 3-Week High
The US dollar index climbed above 98.7 on Thursday, reaching its highest level in over three weeks, after stronger-than-expected retail sales data eased concerns about consumer spending.
Retail sales rose 0.6% in June, bouncing back from May’s sharp 0.9% drop and surpassing forecasts of 0.1%.
The rebound suggests resilience in household demand and supports the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for now.
As a result, traders have scaled back expectations for rate cuts in 2025, with markets now pricing in fewer than two reductions this year, down from three anticipated earlier in July.
Political uncertainty added to recent market volatility, as speculation swirled about Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s future.
However, President Trump later clarified he had no immediate plans to replace Powell, though he continued to criticize the central bank for not cutting rates more quickly.
Crude Futures Hold Ground in Sideways Trade
Crude oil futures are holding up after three days of moderate declines. Downward pressure on prices this week has been limited despite underlying concerns about increased output by OPEC+ and an eventual economic impact on demand from U.S. tariffs. “Obviously, as we progress to the latter half of the year, more supply is going to come into the market from OPEC, but ultimately I don’t think demand is going to be as bad as had been feared,” says Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com. “There’s going to be more sideways chop for the rest of the year than a trend emerging.” WTI is up 0.3% at $66.59 a barrel, and Brent is flat at $68.52.
Brent Crude Oil Chart
SocGen’s Overnight Economic News Summary
— US dollar regains bullish tactical footing in Asia, DXY up against 50dma at 98.76, next hurdles 99.50/100. 10-year United States Treasury +2bps at 4.48%, resistance 4.52%. President Trump on dismissing Federal Reserve Chair Powell: I don’t rule out anything, but it’s highly unlikely.
— Japan: trade deficit narrowed to 235.5 billion yen in June from 291.6 billion yen in May. Exports -0.5% year over year, imports +0.2%. Japanese investors bought 759.3 billion yen international bonds last week. International investors bought 170.4 billion yen Japanese bonds and 446.0 billion yen Japanese stocks.
— United Kingdom average earnings excluding bonuses slow to 5.0% three-month/y over year in May, consensus was 4.9%. Private sector moderates to 4.9%. Employment +134,000 threee-month over three-month. Unemployment rate +0.1pp to 4.7%. Payrolled employees -41,000 in June, May revised up to -25,000 from -109,000.
— Australia’s employment up 2,000 in June, full-time -38,200, unemployment rate climbs to 4.3%, participation rate up a tick at 67.1%. AUDUSD -0.8% at 0.6475. Three-year AGBP yield declines 8bps to 3.43%.
— Day ahead: U.S. retail sales, weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed business outlook. Federal Reserve speakers Kugler, Daly and Cook. European Central Bank’s Villeroy. Bond auctions from Spain, France and the U.K.
— Nikkei +0.4%, EUR 10-year IRS unchanged at 2.67%, Brent crude +0.3% at $68.7/barrel, Gold -0.5% at $3,333/oz.
AUDUSD Chart
FX option expiries for 17 July 10am New York cut
It’s never a dull day with Trump in charge but if you missed the headlines, you’d be thinking major currencies didn’t do all too much in the past day. After all the drama about maybe firing Fed chair Powell, we’re back to square one again in terms of markets moves relative to a day ago. However, make no mistake that the dollar and broader markets were sent for a ride on the headlines yesterday:
· Trump asked GOP leaders if he should fire Powell
· Bloomberg: Pres Trump likely to fire Feds Chair Powell soon
· Trump: Fed Chair Powell is too late, but he does not planning on doing anything
· Trump’s Fed feud escalates: Powell stays, for now
So, did all the drama sway the odds of a July rate cut? Not at all. Fed funds futures are still pointing to ~98% odds of rates being kept unchanged at the end of the month.
Anyway, back to the expiries. After going through that dramatic sequence, the dollar is back to more or less where it was yesterday. And so, that means not doing all too much after the gains in the previous weeks. EUR/USD will see large expiries at 1.1600 and 1.1650, likely to keep price action in a bind before rolling off. That especially with the 100-hour moving average at 1.1655 also helping to cap any upside. As such, the path of least resistance is still lower for now.
Then, there is one for USD/JPY at the 149.00 mark. It’s not one that ties to any technical significance but could help to keep a lid on things in European trading at least before we get to the US retail sales data later. As things stand, the pair remains very much underpinned with yen holding weaker as Trump’s tariffs threaten to derail the BOJ’s rate hike plans.
ETHUSD – Ethereum
Ether’s target at 3465.00 was reached today – high so far 3481.62
Now if Ethereum continues Up straight forward and breaks above 3500.00 , we would be looking at a crazy rally that can reach as high as 4000.00 and above
But we have to take into account reality and a probable possibility that we should be seeing at least a consolidation, if not a full blown correction
Supports down there are : 3210.00, 3085.00 & 2875.00
Resistances: 3525.00, 3750.00 & 4100.00
EURUSD 4h
First I have to say that this kind of market tremors were always present in one or the other way.
As long as charts are having some sense, we can use them and trade accordingly.
I don’t know when someone is going to come out with outrageous statement, and have no clue if Trump will decide to move from USD to MXN Peso, or decide to use Yuan as an exclusive Reserve currency, so as always I will continue to follow the market strictly technical.
After that ridiculous Uptick yesterday ( 1.172150) EURUSD came back to overall direction – Down
With a new low today at 1.15562 , we need EUR to close tonight below 1.16050 to confirm the continuation of downtrend.
Resistances: 1.16050, 1.16150 & 1.16550
Supports: 1.15850, 1.15650 & 1.15550
Current intraday pressure is turning Up – but if it fails everything between 1.16050 & 1.16150 it will continue down again.
US data due next… retail salea, weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed, Export/Impor prices
See consensus forecasts in our Economic Data Calendar
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