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EURJPY Weekly
I don’t trade EURJPY ( or any other Cross – prefer Majors ), but had to check it out to see “what if “ happens.
And that “If” is a possibility for EUR to continue strengthening vs USD and on the other side USD becoming stronger vs JPY
Looking at this weekly chart, becomes clear that EURJPY is going for at least 180.500 if not even 185.000
In such a case, with EURJPY at 185.000, and EURUSD at 1.2 – USDJPY would be at 154.000
Duly noted 😀
XAUUSD – Gold
Resistances: 3345.00, 3365.00 & 3395.00
Supports: 3310.00, 3295.00 & 3250.00
Gold is correcting tight now and before it goes back up above 3365.00 it will continue to do so.
Sharp Uptrend will continue to be intact as long as Gold doesn’t go below 3250.00
Target on the upside is at 3785.00
USDJPY Daily
Supports: 144.825, 144.515 & 144.255
Resistances: 145.250, 145.400 & 145.600
If USDJPY losses support at 144.825 – uptrend angle, road would be open for attack at 142.700
This is mixed pattern – it says Sell, but that underlying angle can easily change it to Buy.
So we’ll see how it develops tomorrow.
XAUUSD (GOLD)
As noted, there are signs of a potential low but so far just leading to consolidation.
On the upside, needs to regain 3338-40+ to ease the downside risk… high today 3337
Above 3358 would then be needed to put 3400 back on the radar.
Supports between 3310-15 block exposing 3293-95 again
XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART.
U.S. Crude Oil Stockpiles Fall More Than Expected
U.S. crude oil inventories posted a fifth straight weekly decline, leaving stocks 11% below the five-year average for the time of year, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Commercial crude oil stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 5.8 million barrels to 415.1 million barrels in the week ended June 20, the EIA said. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted crude stockpiles would fall by 1.3 million barrels.
Oil stored in the SPR rose by 237,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels. Oil stocks at Cushing, Okla., the Nymex delivery hub, were down by 464,000 barrels at 22.2 million barrels.
Estimated U.S. crude oil production was steady at 13.4 million barrels a day, while imports rose by 439,000 barrels a day to 5.9 million barrels a day and exports fell by 91,000 barrels a day to 4.3 million barrels a day.
Refinery capacity use increased by 1.5 percentage points to 94.7%, compared with expectations of a half percentage point increase in the Journal survey. Crude oil input to refineries increased by 125,000 barrels a day to just under 17 million barrels a day.
Gasoline stocks fell by 2.1 million barrels to 227.9 million barrels against expectations of a 200,000 barrel increase, and were about 3% below the five-year average. Gasoline demand rose by 389,000 barrels a day to 9.7 million barrels a day.
Distillate fuel inventories were down by 4.1 million barrels at 105.3 million barrels, and were 20% below the five-year average, the EIA said. Distillate inventories were forecast to have risen by 700,000 barrels.
Oil Prices Rise After Three-Day Slide; S&P 500 Opens Higher
With the Israel-Iran cease-fire holding, stocks are back in rarefied territory.
Stocks were muted early Wednesday, but it won’t take much of an uptick in regular trading to set records. The S&P 500 closed Tuesday within 1% of an all-time high, while the Nasdaq Composite ended 1.3% off a fresh peak.
Oil prices nudged higher, suggesting the selloff of the past three sessions could have overshot. While the Israel-Iran truce appears fragile, analysts say oil prices are likely to stay subdued-as long as neither side attacks energy-export infrastructure or disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set for a second day of testimony on Capitol Hill. Bets on a July interest-rate cut have risen modestly in recent days, after two Fed officials signaled they were open to the possibility. Powell said Tuesday recent economic data would likely have justified cutting, were it not for concerns higher tariffs might fuel price rises.
Countries are racing to secure deals with the U.S. ahead of looming tariff increases. Canada’s new lead negotiator, Kirsten Hillman, said U.S. and Canadian officials would meet three times this week to hash out an agreement. Ottawa wants the U.S. to back down from levies on steel, aluminum and autos.
The European Union also is rushing to clinch a deal. But the bloc will launch retaliatory levies if the U.S. opts for even baseline tariffs on its goods, the bloc’s industry chief warned, according to a Bloomberg News report.
In recent trading:
Treasury yields rose above 4.3%. They settled Tuesday at 4.291%, the lowest level since early May.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose. On Tuesday, indexes rallied on the Middle East cease-fire, and the Nasdaq-100 hit a new record.
FedEx stock dropped premarket, after the delivery company said it expects a $170 million hit from a change in tariff rules that crushed demand for packages from China.
European stocks mostly fell, while Chinese indexes gained 1%.
SP 500 Chart
What’s Hot and What’s Not?
What’s Hot?
NAS100; SETTING A NEW INTRADAY RECORD HIGH
USDJPY up but off its high
EURUSD trying to heat up but so far just lukewarm
What’s Not?
The JPY, which is weaker both vs. the dollar and on its crosses
US bonds (yields tick up)
What’s hot/not?
GOLD consolidating
Crude oil less of a focus
FX Market seemed to react to weaker housing data but bond yields are not reacting, now up on the day
Commerzbank on Overnight News
Markets: United States Treasuries remain better bid in late New York session, slightly weaker in Asia. E-minis remain close to Tuesday’s highs, Asian stocks are mixed. EUR trades at $1.162. Brent stabilizes around $68/barrel.
Fed: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees no rush to cut rates as economy is still strong; expects rate cuts “rather sooner than later” if inflation pressure remains contained. He also says that USD is still number-one safe-haven currency and thinks changes to leverage ratio would help UST markets.
More Fed: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari wants more clarity on the tariff impact before adjusting monetary policy. Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr expects tariffs to cause higher inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins considers modestly restrictive monetary policy necessary. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams thinks it is “entirely appropriate” to hold rates steady.
US: Intelligence report says that bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities likely only sets back program by a few months. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff claims reports that US did not achieve its objectives in Iran are “completely preposterous.”
==EUROPE:
ECB: Governing Council Philip Lane says the European Central Bank would react to “material” changes in inflation outlook while ignoring “tiny” ones.
EU warns of retaliatory tariffs if the U.S. insists on asymmetrical deal, including if the 10% baseline tariffs remain.
France: Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s administration faces a no-confidence vote within 48 hours after pension talks failed.
Italy: The treasury announces to tap BTP 2.7% Oct30 (1.25 billion-1.5 billion euros), 2.95% July30 (1.25 billion-1.5 billion euros), 3.6% Oct35 (3.0 billion-3.5 billion euros) and CCTeu Apr34 (1.5 billion-2.0 billion euros) on Friday. Treasury announces to launch new three-, seven- and 10-year BTP in Q3. Implications for gross funding in 2025 ranges from 338 billion-348 billion euros, slightly below earlier guidance.
BoE: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey says quantitative tightening (QT) decision will be “more interesting this year” given the steepening of the yield curve.
==ASIA:
Japan: Bank of Japan’s Board member Naoki says rates may need to rise decisively if upside inflation risks rise.
Crude Oil Chart
US Equity Futures Rise Ahead of Powell Testimony
US equity futures were higher pre-bell Wednesday, ahead of the second day of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the US Congress, as the fragile peace process for the Middle East remained in the backdrop.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were slightly higher, S&P 500 futures were up 0.2%, and Nasdaq futures added 0.4%.
Powell will return to Capitol Hill at 10 am ET for day 2 of his testimony, this time speaking before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.
Oil prices were higher, with front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent crude up 0.7% at $66.65 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude up 1% at $65.04 per barrel.
The May new home sales report, scheduled for release at 10 am ET, is expected to show the number of newly constructed home sales fell to a 694,000 annual rate in May from 743,000 previously, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
In other world markets, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.4% higher, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended 1.2% higher, and China’s Shanghai Composite finished 1% higher. Meanwhile, the UK’s FTSE 100 was down 0.2%, and Germany’s DAX index was down 0.5% in Europe’s early afternoon session.
In equities, QuantumScape QS stock was up 41% after the battery developer said late Tuesday it has integrated its Cobra separator technology in battery production.
Precision BioSciences DTIL shares were 16% higher after the company said its potential Duchenne muscular dystrophy treatment has secured the US Food and Drug Administration’s rare pediatric disease designation.
On the losing side, Torrid CURV shares were 32% lower after the company said late Tuesday it priced a secondary stock offering at $3.50 per share. Allot ALLT shares were down 14%, a day after the company priced an offering of 5 million shares at $8 apiece for gross proceeds of $40 million.
Dow Jones Index
XRP price breakout is coming between July and September
Key takeaways:
· XRP is stuck within a narrowing range over the last three months.
· Analyst says XRP price consolidation could end as soon as next month.
· XRPUSD price must establish $2.40 as new support to resume the uptrend.
XRP price has been stuck within the $2.00 and $2.40 range over the last 90 days, with traders attempting to predict its next move.
The XRPUSD has traded relatively sideways since turning down from its multi-year high of $3.40 reached on Jan. 16, repeatedly making unsuccessful attempts to break out of the range.
The XRPUSD pair could be preparing for a major upward move this summer
Price action had formed a large symmetrical triangle in the monthly time frame, predicting a big breakout over the next few months.
These types of setups usually resolve between 75% and 95% of the pattern’s total duration.
In this case, XRP has been consolidating within the symmetrical triangle for 334 days. Using historical behaviour as a guide, there are two breakout timelines: 75% of 334 days is 251 days, pointing to early July 2025, and 95% of 334 days is 317 days, suggesting mid-September 2025.
A growing number of analysts believe the next move for XRP is upward, as bears fail to establish new lows.
XRP bulls must reclaim $2.40
XRP’s potential to move higher is part of a recovery that saw the price rally 15% to a high of $2.21 on June 24 from its local low at $1.91.
XRP bulls are focused on breaking the resistance between $2.22 (the 100-day simple moving average (SMA)) and $2.40 (the 200-day SMA).
A close above this level will pave the way for a return to $3.00 or the seven-year high above $3.40.
Yen Steady as BOJ Maintains Cautious Outlook
The Japanese yen held steady around 144.8 per dollar on Wednesday, near a one-week high, as markets digested the Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions.
Policymakers maintained a cautious stance on future policy adjustments, citing heightened uncertainty in the economic outlook.
The central bank reiterated that any rate hikes would depend on whether its projections for economic growth and inflation are realized, while several members stressed the importance of maintaining an accommodative stance amid ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks.
On the trade front, Japanese negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is reportedly preparing for his seventh trip to the US as early as June 26 to press for the removal of US tariffs.
Meanwhile, the US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to hold despite isolated flare-ups.
However, intelligence reports indicated that recent US missile strikes only partially damaged Iran’s nuclear facilities, delaying but not halting its program.
FX option expiries for 25 June 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.
The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 level. The pair finally secured a daily close above 1.1600 yesterday but ever so marginally. So, just be wary that we might not get much of an extension to price action especially if the broader dollar sentiment holds steadier on the day. As such, the expiries could act as a bit of a ceiling for that in the session ahead – if we come to it.
Then, there are ones for USD/JPY at the 144.50 and 145.00 levels. The rejection of the 100-day moving average yesterday coinciding with added dollar weakness puts the focus back on the levels above. The 200-hour moving average sits at 145.10 and will be a testing point for near-term bias. But if price action holds below that, expect the expiries above to help keep things in range in European trading at least.
SocGen’s Overnight Economic News Summary
— Risk tone positive, VIX below 18 after 12% drop yesterday, Nasdaq-100 closed at anew record. US dollar index skids below 98.0. FOMC pricing largely unchanged after Federal Reserve Chair Powell testimony, July steady at -5bps, September -25bps.
— Fed Chair Powell: expect to see meaningful tariff inflation effects in June, July, August. Williams (voter): maintaining modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely appropriate. Schmid (voter) backs wait-and-see approach.
— Australia’s consumer price index cools more than forecast to 2.1% year over year in May from 2.4% in April, core slow to 2.4% from 2.8%. Implied odds of July Reserve Bank of Australia cut climb to 93% from 84%.
— Day ahead: NATO summit. Fed Chair Powell repeats testimony to Senate, different question-and-answer session. United States new home sales, U.S. Treasury five-year auction. Bank of England’s Lombardelli. The Czech central bank (CNB) forecast to stay on hold.
— Nikkei +0.3%, EUR 10-year IRS -1bp at 2.545%, Brent crude +1.6% at $68.2/barrel, Gold +0.4% at $3,330/oz.
Nikkei Chart
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