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Fed Interest Rate Decision, Economic Data, Lennar Earnings, and What Else to Watch This Week
Equities were moving higher on the week in a narrow trading range before news broke late Thursday that Israel had attacked Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Subsequently oil prices spiked, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, up 7% on Friday to $74.23 a barrel. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% on the day, ending the week down 0.4% at 5976.97.
But even before the latest flare up of Middle East tensions, stocks could barely muster a rally despite benign inflation readings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Wednesday and Thursday. That suggests that it’ll take a new catalyst for the S&P 500 to push above its record close of 6144.15 from earlier this year.
One such candidate: A more dovish Federal Reserve.
The main event of the coming shortened trading week is the two-day Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary-policy meeting, which will culminate at 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. Wall Street will be eager to hear Powell’s current view on the balance of risks to the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
The Census Bureau is slated to release retail sales and housing starts data on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
On a sparse earnings calendar, Lennar reports quarterly results on Monday, followed by Jabil on Tuesday. After Thursday’s June tenth national holiday, traders come back to earnings from Accenture, CarMax, and Kroger on Friday.
Monday 6/16
Lennar reports second-quarter earnings for its 2025 fiscal year.
Tuesday 6/17
The Census Bureau reports retail and food services sales for May. Economists tracked by Bloomberg forecast a 0.7% month-over-month decline, following a 0.1% rise in April. Excluding autos, retail sales are expected to increase 0.2%, one-tenth of a percentage point more than previously.
The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for June. Consensus estimate is for a 36 reading, two points more than in May. Readings less than 50 suggest the homebuilders aren’t confident about the current and near-term outlook for the housing market.
Wednesday 6/18
The Census Bureau reports residential construction data for May. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.36 million privately-owned housing starts, about even with the April figure.
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. The FOMC is all but certain to leave the federal-funds rate unchanged at 4.25% — 4.50%. The central bank will also release its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. In the March SEP, the committee pencilled in two quarter-point rate cuts through the end of the year.
Of greater interest on Wall Street is Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s press conference. Powell has been in wait-and-see mode ever since the implementation of the White House’s tariff policy, stating on multiple occasions that the FOMC didn’t need to be in a hurry to adjust interest rates and was well positioned to respond once there was more clarity through the incoming economic data.
With this past week’s benign inflation data and small cracks in the labor market–initial jobless claims have averaged 240,250 over the past four weeks, up 27,750 since the beginning of year–investors will be keen to hear if Powell changes his tune.
Thursday 6/19
Equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day.
Friday 6/20
Accenture, CarMax, Darden Restaurants, and Kroger release quarterly results.
XAUUSD – Gold 4h
I said million times : “ Do NOT Hold a position over the weekend, and especially not when the bombs are falling “
Also, taking a position in XAUEUR, you are taking a very risky position as it depends not only on Gold, but EURUSD as well…so double trouble.
This is where we left it on Friday:
This is a Rally that started 5 days ago
It is overdue for some correction already
Correction can go to at least 3405.00 if not all the way to 3370.00
If lucky, it can hit first some more Up – like 3480.00 and then down.
But it can also start a correction from here….
BTCUSD 1h
Look now Adam – Pay attention to the following:
Resistance ( downtrend line) at 105.750
Supports: 105.350 & 104.850
This is your “living” space
Seems that it will push down for at least few hours, unless it pushes back Up above 105.645 in this hour and then it would have a chance to take out 105.750
BTCUSD 4h
On the BTC technical front, this is what we have:
Supports: 105.550, 105.050 & 104.600
Resistances: 105.900, 106.200 & 106.550
BTC is right now forming an attack formation, but for a confirmation it has to go above 106.900 – on the daily chart even a bit higher – 107.200
But if 106.200 proves to be a nut hard to crack today, we will see some more support testing.
Bitcoin Investors Remain Calm Despite Israel-Iran Conflict Escalation
The price of Bitcoin has managed to stay afloat over the past few days despite the growing conflict in the Middle East and the ensuing bearish pressure. The premier cryptocurrency continues to hover around the $105,000 level, with its value down by merely 0.8% in the past week.
According to the latest on-chain data, the Bitcoin price might not be down for too long, as investors seem unbothered by the rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Below is what the BTC investors have been up to since the military action started in the past week.
BTC Investors Still Holding On To Their Assets: Analyst
Bitcoin market has remained relatively quiet despite the ongoing geopolitical events. The relevant indicators here are the Bitcoin exchange netflow and Open Interest.
To start, BTC Exchange Netflow, which measures the difference between Bitcoin sent to and withdrawn from centralized exchanges. Typically, this metric helps to gauge the selling pressure on a particular cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this scenario).
Given that one of the services offered by exchanges is selling, exchange inflows are often considered a bearish signal for the Bitcoin price. However, there has been no significant change in Netflow, meaning that investors are not looking to offload their assets.
Open Interest on centralized exchanges, which estimates the amount of capital
Open Interest still looks strong, and investors are still keeping their positions open FOR NOW despite all the WAR news.
Bitcoin Open Interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), where institutions and speculators trade
Some positions were closed and the Open Interest dropped after the event, there has still not been any significant exit movement on the CME.
Ultimately, the absence of major movements into centralized exchanges suggests that the investors are not in panic mode yet. While most positions on Bitcoin derivatives are still open at the moment, there is no telling what will happen if the war tension escalates further. Hence, investors might want to approach the market with caution over the next few days.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $104,760, reflecting an almost 1% decline in the past 24 hours.
DJI: Dow Jones Washes Out Nearly 800 Points as Iran Strikes Back at Israel, Roiling Global Markets
Key points:
· Dow Jones goes down 1.8%
· Iran shoots missiles at Tel Aviv
· Global markets rattled — for how long?
30-stock American index washed out 1.8% Friday, followed by the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, which were also staring at big losses.
📉 Dow Jones Takes a Hit
· The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJI lost a hefty chunk of its valuation Friday when the surprise warfare between Israel and Iran entered a new phase. Tehran retaliated against Israel’s overnight attack, firing dozens of projectiles that hit Tel Aviv.
· The response came after Israel fired barrages of missiles at Iran’s nuclear site and the nation’s top military brass. The assault claimed one victim — the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
· If there’s anything markets don’t like more than uncertainty, it’s uncertainty paired with warware and geopolitical stresses. And on Friday, we got a lot of that and then some. And markets crashed.
📢 Stocks Retreat amid Global Fears
· The 30-stock Dow Jones erased 770 points, or 1.8%, to settle at 42,197.79. Traders couldn’t lift the index one bit throughout the session as things started spiraling even before the bell with futures contracts diving more than 700 points.
· The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite also slipped deep under the flatline for the day with the broad-based benchmark finishing lower by 1.1%. The tech-heavy stock gauge signed off with a 1.3% loss with all but one of the Magnificent Seven members in the red. Tesla TSLA was up 2%.
· The US dollar, in the meantime, got a rush of adrenaline as stock bros converted to forex bros who were seeking a safe place to park their cash. The buck wrapped up the session modestly higher against the euro.
👀 Looking Ahead: Scary Weekend
· What happens now? It’s a weekend full of uncertainty as both sides have vowed to keep fighting and carry on with the war even if that means more destruction, casualties, and risk to global peace and market stability.
· “The Iranian nation won’t permit the blood of its valued martyrs to go unavenged, nor will it ignore the violation of its airspace,” Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on X. “Our Armed Forces are ready, and the country’s officials and all the people are behind the Armed Forces,” he added.
· Trading instruments to watch: Gold XAUUSD is certainly an asset worth keeping your eye on. The precious metal rose 1.4% Friday to close at $3,432.83 per ounce. Oil was the biggest beneficiary, up about $5, or 7%, as markets reacted to an expected supply risk from the oil-rich Middle East areas.
Crude Oil Chart
US Equity Indexes Fall This Week as Israeli Strikes on Iran Wipe Out Gains Linked to Fed Rate-Cut Expectations
US equity indexes fell as Israel’s strike against Iran mainly drove the decline this week, outweighing the gains from earlier in the week when soft inflation prints lifted bets in favor of interest-rate cuts.
* The S&P 500 closed at 5,976.97 on Friday versus 6,000.36 a week ago. The Nasdaq Composite stood at 19,406.83 compared with 19,529.95, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 42,197.79 versus 42,762.87.
* Israel’s military warned “all of Israel is under fire” after Tehran launched retaliatory strikes on Friday, CNN reported. Iran confirmed firing “hundreds of various ballistic missiles” at Israel, calling it the “beginning” of its “crushing response.” WTI crude oil futures surged 8% intraday.
* In economic news, the producer price index rebounded less than expected in May, following a surprise sequential deceleration in the headline consumer price inflation last month.
* The CME’s FedWatch tool showed a 23% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut the target range for its federal funds rate by 25 basis points, ending its policy pause. That likelihood stood at 16% a week ago. In September, the chances of the cut stood at 57%, versus 52% a week earlier. The probability of a 50 basis-point slash in September climbed to 14% from 9% a week ago.
* Trump reportedly turned the heat on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump claimed that lowering rates by two percentage points would save the US $600 billion per year, “but we can’t get this guy to do it.”
* US and Chinese negotiators said they’ve agreed on a framework to implement an agreement reached at talks in Geneva, Switzerland. Trump said he plans to impose import tariffs on countries that failed to agree to new trade deals.
* Tesla TSLA stands to benefit from a reconciliation between CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump as the electric vehicle maker prepares to launch its Robotaxi service later this month, Wedbush Securities said in a client note Wednesday. Shares were up about 11% this week.
Tesla chart
BTCUSD Weekly – Bitcoin
Support – 102.200
Resistances – 105.400, 106.200 & 109.250
Close of this week above 105.150 would leave BTC in attacking position for next week.
However, close below 103.800 would signal possible test of 102.200
If lost, BTC can go in a correction all the way to 89 and even 82K
Currently it is having a hard time with the resistance at 105.400 – and if it wants to reach higher today, it has to take it out in next 4h.
EURUSD 4h
To start with the bigger picture – Close on both : Daily & Weekly chart is very Bullish EUR
If we take into account all that is happening around us right now, EUR behaved very stable.
I said on Thursday that Friday might be a day for some supports testing, and it was.
And we finished Friday exactly as expected – EUR should continue pushing upwards, going into weekly close tonight.
Even with all the turmoil around, technical view was fully preserved.
So I am going to continue to look at it as nothing is happening out of the ordinary.
By that view, we can expect EUR to continue Up Monday.
Supports: 1.15400, 1.15200 & 1.15050
Resistances: 1.15550, 1.15700 & 1.15900
Bitcoin clings to $105K as opinions diverge on oil price outlook
Key points:
· Bitcoin recovers from a trip below $103,000 with markets on edge over the Israel-Iran conflict.
· Oil steals the show on the day, but analysis is far from unanimous on the outlook.
· BTC price predictions see the rebound persisting, shaking off the likelihood of further losses.
Bitcoin BTCUSD bounced past $105,000 around the June 13 Wall Street open as markets awaited cues from the Israel-Iran conflict.
Oil may yet see “final flush” after day of gains
Geopolitical tensions had sparked snap losses across crypto and stocks overnight, while oil soared and gold hit two-month highs.
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index were down around 1% on the day at the time of writing.
Reacting, crypto commentators had mixed opinions over how a resurgent oil price might impact Bitcoin and altcoins going forward.
“Oil up. Gold up. Bitcoin down”
“Bitcoin ended up outperforming the other two over the first 48 hours in that situation. Will be interesting to see what happens here”
“Oil might have significant move down after this. So far it looks clear that they aren’t and won’t be targeting Iran’s oil facilities”
“Bitcoin is stored energy in digital form. Therefore, if energy prices rise, Bitcoin will be worth more in terms of fiat currency”
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