[GVI News]

Trading alert

US traders will head for the exits once data comes out tomorrow.

Yes, on Thursday, July 3, 2025, U.S. markets will have early closures ahead of Independence Day:
• Stock markets (NYSE and Nasdaq) will close at 1 p.m. ET. 
• Bond markets will close at 2 p.m. ET. 

On Friday, July 4, both stock and bond markets will remain fully closed in observance of Independence Day.

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold

3360.00 & 3395.00 are Prime obstacles in front of the Gold

It needs to take them out today-tomorrow to confirm return of the Uptrend

First target is at 3435.00 followed closely by 3455.00

Supports: 3330.00 & 3295.00

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

And here we have it – BTC broke above downtrend line at 109.235

Support at 105.100 held nicely and propelled it all the way to high at 109.717

Now BTC has to hold onto gains and not lose 108.800

Lowest support needed to hold is at 108.250 right now.

Close tonight above 109.235 opens a clear road for 112.350

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

EUR turning bullish on 4h

Support for it is at 1.17850 & 1.17600

Resistances: 1.18100 & 1.18150

Close tonight above 1.17850 would be bullish for tomorrow – Leg Up

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX

Key facts today:

–          Dax tested support at 23.620 ( SMA 5 ) and rebounded

–          Has to overcome 23.865 tomorrow to be able to continue Up

–          If losses tomorrow 23.700 targets 23.200 in coming few days

This is a Bullish close today and if proven right DAX will continue towards 24.525 & 24.745 ultimately

However, loss of 23.200 would leave Double top in place and door would be open for change of trend and levels as low as 20.000

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Trying to build momentum to the upside but requires a firm break of 3358 to complete this setup.

Back below 3327 would postpone it.

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Guess which currency is the outperformer today?

If you guessed the CAD you are right, the only currency up vs. the USD today although the dollar has turned soft.

[ST London]

It is now all about NFP and what side will be the surprise.

[GVI Forex 2]

Why I suggested reading the article on crosses posted below is it can give you a clue (on a day like this) what is driving the sp[ot market

EURGBP .8670 (HIGH) => ,8648 (LAST)

GBPUSD 1.3563 (LOW) => 1.3596 (LAST)

[GVI Forex 2]

Not a sweetheart deal

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

What’s Hot and What’s Not?

What’s Hot

US dollar is up vs. all but the CAD’

US stocks trying to turn hot with US500 back above 6200 after an earlier dip

What’s not

GBP down sharply, both vs the USD and on its crosses

US bonds down (yields up) but the big loser is UK Gilts

US jobs market if you believe the ADP report… key will be NFP released one day early on Thursday ahead of the long US July 4 weekend.

What’s Mixed Hot and Cold

GOLD trading in the background and consolidating below yesterday’s 3358 high

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks blip up on trade deal headline

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD

GBPUSD extending its slide below 1.3590… chart shows  a void to 1.3370 (not a forecast, just pointing out the void)

To state the obvious, back above 1.3590 needed to cool the risk

EURUSD lagging as EURGBP extends its high

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Catalyst for GBP sell-off is seen in a sharp rise in Gilt yields on speculation that Chancellor Reeves would be replaced and lead to a loosening of the fiscal side.

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields continue to tick higher despite the weak ADP report… it may be a coincidence but yields are up (bonds weaker) ahead of the House vote on the tax and spending bill

[GVI Forex 2]

This article is worth a read given the way EURGBP (last 8658) is trading today, impacting both GBPUSD and EURUSD

How You Can Use Currency Crosses to Trade Spot Forex

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP TESTING 8650 AGAIN… TUG-OF-WAR BETWEEN GBPUSD AND EURUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD

Freefall held AT support at 1.3590

It coincided with EURGBP high around .8650, which needs to hold to keep GBPUSD above 1.3590

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields showing little reaction to ADP… Forex market seems more focused on a weak GBP

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGGBP

GBP still feeling the effects of the earlier sell-off and lack of recovery when news was refuted

If the breaK above 8624 holds, charts show little until 8737, making the intra-day high key resistance.

EURGBP 15 MINUTE CHART

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.1780 = minor Res

[GVI Forex 2]

Big miss is ADP jobs… USD down but cuatiously as ADP is not considered a good indicator of NFP, which comes out Thursday due to the July 4 holiday on Friday.

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

No resignation but GBP bounce so far limited 

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

GBP just got ehacked, vs. the EUR and ZUSD… The only news I have seen

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up: APP employment… not a good indicator of NFP but market often reacts

See our Economic Data Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP

Up then down like a mirror… tog-of-war market having more difficuly absorbing the EUR sell side.

EURGBP 15 MINUTE CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Why ECB is oikay with a stronger EURUSD

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[GVI Forex 2]

EUR crosses (EURJPY, EURGBP) backing down… creating a tug-of-war (e.g. USDJPY down, EURUSD down)

EURUSD support: Tuesday’s 1.1761 low (not tested) , 1.1750, 1.1707

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY

Good call on the intra-day directional risk (up) by Bobby at July 2, 2025 at 7:22 am

2 red AT lines indicate the directional risk turned up as well

Obstacles to 145: 144.50 and 144.95

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

[Author]

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