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Note, one hour shorter time difference US vs UK and Europe as US does not move clocks back until this weekend.
GBPUSD Daily
Supports : 1.29550 , 1.29250 & 1.29050
Resistances : 1.30000 , 1.30200 & 1.30550
Above 1.29750 Bullish
Below 1.29650 Bearish
Pattern wise – preparing to break Up
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Even as public borrowing estimates were shaved on Monday, U.S. Treasury yields continue to probe three-month highs as markets lean toward a win for Donald Trump in next week’s election and a possible clean sweep in Congress for his Republican party.
In an event-packed fortnight that sees the first of this week’s five U.S. megacap earnings later on Tuesday alongside critical job openings data, Wall Street stock indexes remain buoyant near record highs.
Morning Bid: Election-Agitated Treasuries Meet Megacap Earnings
Eye on Yellen
–
Hey peasants, listen here !
..you ”are better off than they were when President Joe Biden took office.”
But … “more work was needed to bring down the cost of living but said that wages have risen faster than prices.
“Which means that the typical American can afford more goods and services than before the pandemic. And Americans are starting new businesses at a record rate, reflecting optimism about the economy,”
A week before US vote, Yellen revives arguments on strong economy – RTRS
EURUSD 30 MINUTE CHART – Will 1.08 trade again?
As noted in the eek ahead and again yesterday, my view is to treat moves to the upside as retracements unless 1.0839 is firmly taken out.
See this chart and how the Amazing Trader resistance line held.
Now we see if 1.08 can exert a magnetic pull as it enters a 1.0800-10 support zone.
Note how EUR crosses have undercut the earlier EURUSD bid (e.g. EURJPY held resistance, EURGBP dips).
Verbal intervention (no reaction)
Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa says he is closely monitoring currency moves; notes that a weak yen can have various imoacts on the economy
Source: Newsquawk.com
There us soime US data that could spark soime movements’
US Trade balance (largely ignored)
JOLTS (job openings)
CB Consumer Confidence
See our Economic Data Calendar
profits of the other kind
–
wsj
Pentagon Runs Low on Air-Defense Missiles – BOOOO! – as Demand Surges – YEeeeey !
The U.S. is running low on some types of air defense missiles, forcing the Pentagon to make difficult decisions about how it defends against attacks by Iran and its allied militias in the region.
You ll have to do your own homework who and which company is facing the Air Defense Missiles surging demand
EURJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Retests the high
JPY weakness following Japanese elections is providing offset support to currencies such as the EUR and GBP while upporting USDJPY.. Curious that AUD has not benefited.
As for EURJPY, yesterday’s 166.08 high has been re-tested and its significance is there is little on the upside for another 9-10 big figures. This makes 166,08 a key level.
Note this follows yesterday’s bounce from just above the bottom of the ipoening week gap.
USDJOY DAILY CHART – Fun and Games
Fun and game yesterday after USDJ{Y retreat from a 153.85 post-election high found support in its opening week gap (above 152.35-40) and popped back above 153. Scroll back to yesterday’s posts to see a good real-time illustration of trading opening week gaps.
Here is a way to keep it simple
If current range is 152-155, then the 153.50 midpoint will dictate which side is ultimately at risk
If the range i a tighter 152-154, then 153 sets the tone.
Otherwise, uptrend is intact unless 151.44 is taken out but consolidating while below 153.85.
This is nit a normal week
Fallout from Japanese election’
US election uncertainty
Full calendar
Mega tech stocks earning
GoLd (and BTC) suggest geopolitical concerns despite relief after Israel strike on Iran spared oil fcilities
AUDUSD DAILY CHART – WILL SUPPORT HOLD?
A noted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook
AUDUSD: Trend: Down
Closing the week below .6621 and the 200 day mva (.6629 confirms a shift in risk that has potential for..6505-55. You can see by this chart why this area i important.
Back above .6610-30 would be needed to slow the risk.
Range this week .6610 => .6658 (today’s low)… so nice textbook move, support target so far holding
BTCUSD WEEKLY CHART – RECORD HIGH ON THE RADAR?
While currencies consolidate, BTCUSD is trying to make a run at its record 73840 high following the long awaited move back above 70K.
To make a run at the high, 72K would need to be firmly broken.
Back beoow 70L would cool the risk, strong bid while above it.
XAUUSD 4 HIUR CHART – AIMING FOR ANOTHER RECORD HIGH?
Keep this one simple
Uptrend consolidating
Watch 2750… if it becomes support, a run at the record high would seem inevitable
Should 2758 be broken, it would then need to become support for 2780-00 to come on the radar.
Back below 2739-50 would cool the risk.
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – FOCUS ON 1.08
Current consolidation range is 1.0761-1.0839, a symmetric 39 pip range either side of 1.08.
1.08 has printed 4 days in a row coming into today… see if this pattern can be extended or broken.. a break of this type of pattern often sends a directional signal.
So, 1.08 is clearly pivotal and will dictate the tone going forward.
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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