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- Risk on day
- USD slipping, EURUSD pivoting 1.18, GBPUSD bid above 1.35, USDJPY off high but still above 156.29 breakout, AUDUSD outperforming after hotter CPI
- US stocks up, awaiting Nvidia earnings after the close
- XAUUSD pivoting 5200 after short-lived retracement’
- Crude oil lower after EIA data
- BTCUSD catching a bid back above 65K and trying to shift risk to 70K
- Crude oil lower after EIA data
AUDUSD (1HR)
The Australian dollar is trading near 0.7060, staying inside its downward channel. Earlier, the price broke above the initial resistance around 0.7080, but it failed to hold those gains and pulled back. The pair continues to move within the same bearish channel.
Key levels to watch are support near 0.7020 and resistance around 0.7070.
AUDUSD (4HR)
The Australian dollar strengthened on Friday following volatility in the US dollar after the Supreme Court of the US struck down President Donald Trump’s tariffs. As the dollar weakened on the news, AUDUSD moved higher, with the reaction visible on the chart as buyers stepped in and pushed the pair upward.
Technically, the move reflects renewed short-term bullish momentum rather than a pull-back. AUD climbed after the announcement, signalling stronger demand and a shift in near-term direction. As long as the pair holds above recent support levels, the bias remains tilted to the upside. Support and resistance around 0.7100 and 0.7010 from recent weekly highs and lows.
AUDUSD(1HR)
The Australian dollar slipped to below 0.703 and just touched the weekly downward support channel, heading for a roughly 1% weekly loss, pressured by a stronger US dollar and softer domestic PMI figures.The pair still trading within this bearish channel current support and resistances around 0.7020 and 0.7070
AUDUSD (1HR)
The Aussie bounced to 0.7068, recovering after a 0.6% decline overnight. Key support levels are $0.7028 and $0.6897 from the previous lows, with immediate resistance at 0.7097.
Data showed the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a seven-month low of 4.1%, while employment rose 17,800, driven entirely by full-time roles. The upbeat figures reinforced the RBA’s view that the labor market remains tight and pushed markets to price a higher chance of a May hike.
AUDUSD (4HR)
AUDUSD retreated during the recent trading session after facing resistance near the 0.7100 level, triggering a mild corrective decline. The move appears to reflect a short-term pause in upward momentum rather than signaling a confirmed trend reversal.
Despite the short-term weakness, the pair continues to trade above the EMA50. Price action still remains aligned from the ascending trend line extending from mid-January lows. The broader technical outlook remains constructive as long as the pair holds above the support formed by the EMA50 and the rising trend line
AUDUSD (4HR)
AUDUSD moved slightly lower today, showing signs of short-term consolidation after failing to extend gains above the recent swing high near 0.7150. Despite this, the pair continues to trade above the EMA50 and EMA100, maintaining its position within the broader bullish structure alongside the supports from technical indicators
As long as price stabilizes above the 0.7050–0.7080 support zone, the bullish scenario remains. On the downside, a confirmed break below the trend line and 0.7050 could trigger a deeper correction toward 0.7000 (EMA200 area), which still represents a key structural support.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its rates to 3.85% earlier this month and minutes of that board meeting, due in 7hrs as of time of writing, could show how hawkish the members were about the outlook.
Forex Market Snapshot
TGIF on Friday the 13th
- Markets are picking up the pieces from yesterday’s sharp sell-off in US stocks and metals. Gold has rebounded but remains below $5000. US stocks remain on the defensive hoping to get a reprieve from today’s release of US CPI.
- The dollar is trading mixed to slightly firmer with the trading focus remaining on the JPY where USDJPY has not set a lower low for the first time this week. However, so far, it has not set a higher high, which is needed to break the strong momentum with the high at 153.66 vs, Thursday’s 153.75 high.
- EURUSD remains on the defensive while below 1.19 (3-day pivot around this level broken yesterday but still up on the week) , so far consolidating in a tight range after finding support just below the pivotal 1.1850 level and above 1.1833 (Wed low)
- GBPUSD is currently unchanged on the day
- The AUDUSD is the second underperformer after retreating from its 3-year high as the mood turned to risk off.
- US CPI is due at 13:30 GMT (08:30 EST)
- Another partial government shutdown looms
AUDUSD (1HR)
AUDUSD continues to trade around its short term bullish structure following last week’s breakout. However, momentum is currently stalled near the previously highlighted resistance zone around 0.70000. So far It had failed to achieve a decisive break above this level.
Overall, the bias remains neutral in the short term. While the bullish structure is still intact, the lack of a clear breakout leaves room for uncertainty. This could develop into further sideways movement, but a sustained move lower from here would increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward nearby support levels.
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is consolidating in mixed trade after yesterday’s sell-off except vs a firmer JPY, both vs the USD and on its crosses
Worth noting is that yesterday’s USD selling was said to have been triggered by a news report that China had told its private banks not to buy US Treasuries. This saw yields tick up and the dollar fall but when yields dipped back later in the day the USD did not react. This suggest there was more to the selling than just a headline.
In forex.
- EURUSD is consolidating in a tight range following yesterday’s rally after a 5-day pivot of 1.18 was broken
- USDJPY extended its post-election retreat that paused so far above 155. While prospects of economic stimulus have boosted the stock market to record highs, talk is that a loose fiscal policy increases the risk of the BoJ turning hawkish
- GBP continues to be jerked around by pressure on PM Starmer to resign while his cabinet members have circled the wagons as he vows to stay in office.
- AUDUSD has backed off from .7100 (but stays bid above .7000) as AUDJPY slips as well.
- On the data front, attention is looking ahead to Wednesday’s release of the delayed January US jobs report.
AUDUSD (1HR)
AUDUSD was previously trading in a downtrend but has since broken out successfully. Price has pushed through a key resistance level and is now re-challenging recent highs, particularly around the 0.70950 area. The pair is currently extending gains from the previous week, supported by improved sentiment after the Reserve Bank of Australia signaled a cautious approach toward interest rates this year.
AUDUSD (1HR)
AUDUSD staged a bullish rebound having just dipped on the $0.6900 level and confirming it as a key and solid support. The pair managed to recover part of its recent losses, supported by improving short-term momentum and the easing of oversold condition.
From a technical perspective, the short-term outlook has turned more constructive as AUDUSD has reclaimed and is now trading above all key EMA, easing prior downside pressure. The successful defense of the $0.6900 support zone has reinforced its importance as a base, allowing the pair to build bullish momentum with the pair now attempting to extend gains toward higher resistance levels.
Immediate resistance is around the 0.7040 – 0.7050 region, followed by a stronger resistance near 0.7090 – 0.7100, where previous highs and supply are likely to emerge
AUDUSD (1HR)
AUDUSD has eased from recent highs as the pair was flat around $0.7000 after dipping roughly 0.3% overnight, pulling back from its three-year peak near $0.7094. The move appears more corrective than impulsive, as the market digests strong prior gains. While near-term momentum has cooled, broader sentiment toward the Australian dollar remains supported. JPMorgan analysts expect the pair to trade toward the $0.7150 level, suggesting there is still some room for upside although gains may be limited
From a technical perspective, the current outlook is looking weak having the pair trading below the EMA200 placing the pair under renewed negative pressure. Price is now hovering above the critical $0.6900 support zone, aligned with longer-term moving averages, making this area significant in deciding the direction of the pair. A hold above this region could validate the pull-back as corrective, while a clean break below it would likely open the door for a deeper retracement.
AUDUSD (1HR)
The Australian dollar strengthened further to around $0.703, extending the prior session’s hawkish-policy-driven rally. The move brings the pair back toward three-year highs, supported by market expectations of further rate hikes and upbeat services PMI data.
The price is currently holding above resistance 0.700, supported by the emergence of positive signals from relative strength indicators. Continued trading above EMA50 provides dynamic support and will reinforcing the stability and dominance of the main bullish trend on short-term basis.
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is trading mixed with the AUD and NZD outperforming while the US currency is up modestly elsewhere after trading softer overnight.
- AUDUSD is up although off its high after spiking up following what is being described as a hawkish rate hike (i.e. 25bps hike as expected but forward guidance indicated 2 more rate hikes this year vs. prior expectations of one more).
- EURUSD is back below the pivotal 1.18 level after trading higher overnight. focus. Is on the pivotal 1.18 level, currently back above it.
- USDJPY is underperforming and holding a bid after weekend comments by PM Takaichi that indicated benefits of a weaker JPY and ahead of the Feb 8 election.
- US stocks are modestly higher.
- US 10 year yield in inching closer to 4.30%
- Reminder, today’s JUS JOLTS and Friday’s US January jobs reports has been delayed due to the partial government shutdown.
AUDUSD (4H) traded around 0.701 hovering near the three-year high and is looking like heading for its second consecutive weekly gain. The move has been supported by a broadly weaker US dollar and growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates at its meeting next week. The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to meet on tuesday and all four of Australia’s major banks are forecasting a rate hike to 3.85%. However, it is still unclear whether the decision will be unanimous.
AUDUSD declined yesterday and currently showing signs of consolidation after reaching overbought levels with negative signals beginning to appear on momentum indicators. However the move reflects a temporary slowdown rather than a shift in trend as the price remains supported above the EMA50, which continues to reinforce the broader bullish structure in the short term.
DAVOS: Commodity Currencies Rally Along With Gold Prices
The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars rally along with the South African rand as gold prices rise on demand for safe havens amid renewed concerns over a trade war. President Trump has threatened tariffs against several European nations as he seeks to acquire Greenland.
The Australian dollar rises to a 15-month high of $0.6768, LSEG data show. The New Zealand dollar rises to a four-month high of $0.5863. The U.S. dollar falls to a two-week low of 16.2996 South African rand and hits a two-week low of 1.3790 Canadian dollars.
AUDUSD
Forex Market Snapshot
The forex market continues to struggle to find a common theme to drive trading in the new year. This has seen it struggle to build serious momentum as trading remains choppy.
With that said ranges have been tight so far today with
- EURUSD holding below 1.1650
- USDJPY holding above 158 as it consolidates after trading lower yesterday
- GBPUSD showed little reaction to a positive GDP report
- AUDUSD a touch firmer as US stocks are up aa geopolitical tensions with Iran ease a bit.
- USDCAD is a touch firmer as crude oil prices slip back on easing imminent US threat to attak Iran
- US Weekly Jobless Claims highlight a light calendar
Of all markets, forex algos seem to live to run stops
With the USD trading generally firmer, let’s take a look at its highs for the week as breaks would be needed to run potential stops. Otherwise, expect more chop awaiting Friday’s key events.
- EURUSD 1.1659
- USDJPY 157.30
- GBPUSD 1.3414
- USDCAD 1.3888 (new high set yesterday and extended today)
- AUDUSD 6670
- NZDUSD .5741 (retested today, no stops)
Forex Market Snapshot
- The dollar is trading a touch softer in what has so far been a quiet last full trading day of the year.
- EURUSD is back to around midway within 1.1750-1.1800, lagging GBPUSD as EURGBP trades soft.
- GBPUSD 1.35 has traded for the 5th day in a row, currently above it.
- USDJPY has dipped back below 156 but still above 155.55 support.
- AUDUSD has firmed on the back of a rebound in metals.
- US stocks have so far traded a quiet session as well.
- A key focus will be on the FOMC minutes due at 1900 GMT
The Power of “50” Level is playing out in various places
EURUSD 1.1750
GBPUSD 1.3450
USDCAD 1.3750
AUDUSD 6650
US500 6850
NAS100 25500My Favorite Trading Secret: The Power of the “50” Level
Forex Market Snapshot
- Just when it looked like stocks were set up for a clear path Santa Claus rally following the FOMC meeting, an Oracle earnings miss slammed equities overnight. However, as of this writing, stocks are still down but off the lows.
- The dollar, meanwhile, remains on the defensive with one eye on the risk mood set by equities.
- EURUSD has been pivoting 1.17 and USDJPY 156, both likely to set respective trading tones.
- Worth noting is EURUSD holding (2 pips) above the 1.1680 support cited late yesterday (scroll below) and then bounced. A break of the 6 day pattern printing 1.1650 is a positive.
- AUDUSD is weakest but off its low
- USDCHF is lower after an as expected SNB hold on rates.
- In the US, weekly jobless claims will be a focus, expecting a rebound from a surprise drop last week.
- US balance of trade is also due but has not been a market moving report.
Forex Market Snapshot
It feels like the calm in the countdown until the FOMC storm.
- The dollar is trading modestly lower except vs, the JPY although USDJPY has backed off after stalling in its 146.17-56 resistance zone. A dip in US bond yields has eased some of the upward pressure on USDJPY although it is holding above 156.00
- EURUSD printed 1.1650 for the 6th day in a row as this level remains pivotal.
- GBPUSD is trading firmer but has cooled off a bit after earlier cross strength has eased.
- AUDUSD is a modest outperfomer after the RBA decision
- US data: ADP weekly jobs, JOLTS (job openings) report
