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AUDUSD MONTHLY CHART – BIGGEST LOSER
While Australia avoided the wrath of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, it has been the biggest loser today, down nearly 3,50% currently after trading even lower earlier (low .6049).
I assume this is fallout from the impact on China from the risk of a trade war with the USX.
As the chart shows there is little on the monthly until 5500 so use 6000-6200 as a range… 6000 needing to hold to contain the downside… 6200+ needed to deflect the risk
Using my platform as a HEATMAP
Mixed start to the week
EURUSD backing off towards (but still above) 1.08.… USDJPY weaker ==> EURJPY weaker (GBPJPY as well) asa JPY gets safe haven flows.
AUDUSD, NZDUSD a touch firmer, USDCAD about unchanged
Tariffs, trade war risk, recession talk weighing on US equities
The Savvy Trader was ahead of the curve when he wrote this article’
Is the U.S. headed for a recession by the Savvy Trader?
Light calendar so another headline watching day after Trump weekend comments (scroll below) added to a risk off mood
Using my platform as a HEATMAP
Dollar trading a touch firmer bu
EURUSD continues its trade around 1.05
USDCAD remains bid awaiting the March 4 tariff deadline
AUDUSD slips after CPI raises talk of another rate cut
Stocks up a touch waiting for Nvidia earnings after the close
Trump holds first cabinet meeting, watch for headlines
Using my platform as a HEATMAP
US is back so real start to the week
Dollar trading a touch firmer
GBP initially outperforming via firmer crosses…helped by the UK jobs report (dip in jobless rate, hotter wages)… but giving back early gains,,, e.g. EURGBP bounced after holding .8290 support (cited yesterday)
USDJPY focus is back on pivotal 152, brief test above failed to hold … US 10 year back above 4.50% marginally so far
EURUSD moves farther below 1.05. needs to hold 1.0447 or focus shifts to 1.0370-00
AUDUSD up marginally after widely expected 25bps rate cut, first one in 4 yearsa
Light US economic calendar means looking for news headlines elsewhere
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows
USD Is firmer (except vs JPY but USDJPY Is still above 155)) ahead of the FOMC (and BOC) rate decisions despite lower bond yields as market is showing little fear of the Fed.
USDCAD is firmer ahead of a widely expected BoN 25bps rate cut.
AUDUSD hit after CPI raised expectations of Feb rate cut.
Using my Platform as a HEATMAP shows
Markets on hold awaiting the US jobs report in 3+ hours
GS and Citi calling for a weaker report …
But not showing up in bonds, where yields have edged higher
To keep it simple, watch big figures to guide the respective tones post-data
EURUSD 1.03
USDJPY 158** (traded 4 days in a row)
GBPUSD 1.23
USDCAD 1.44
AUDUSD .62**
**More significant big figures than the others
Using my platform, as a HEATMAP
A
AUDUSD trading at its lowest level for the year… 2023 low is at ,6270
USDCAD trading at a 4+ year high
EURUSD extended its trade around 1.05 to \7 days in a row… the longer it goes on the greater the risk of a directional move once it ends
Key focus today is the FOMC… a hawkish rate cut (i.e. pause in January) is expected… given the time of year it is hard to suggest a follow through reaction so watch the US bond market for a clue to how much is already discounted.
Using my Platform as a Heatmap
AUDUSD outperforming after strong jobs report although there are questions whether it is an outlier
CHF underperforming after the 50bps rate cuit (not a surprise)
US bond yields continue to creep higher, givimg USDFJPY som,e support (held 151.90-00 cited yesterday as support)… inside day so far
EURUSD 1.05 remains the pivotal point ahead of ECB,,, surprise would be a 50bps cut, 25bps expected
Using my platform as a heatmap
USD is up as market seems to be biding its time ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI
EURUSD still within 1.05-1.06 where Power of 1.0550 sets the bias
USDJPY found support above 150.77… needs to stay above 151.21 to keep a strong bid but t52 a potential obstacle
GBPUSD lagging… note weeaker EURGBP
USDCAD broke its 1.4178 key high but so far not following through
AUDUSD an underperformer (NZDUSD as well), falling after RBA but holding above Monday’s .6372 low
AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – WAITING FOR THE RBA
An outperformer to start the week, boosted by China economic stimulus hopes (note firmer AUDJPY).
Brief break of .6445-55 leaves this area as needing to become support to shift the risk to .65
Resistance is at Monday’s .6471 high, key support is not until .6372.
Event risk: RBA decision
With EURUSD bouncing from 1.05, USDJPY focued on 155 , USDCAD moving below 1.40 and AUDUSD above .65, all pivotal levels, this article in our blog is worth revisiting.
In the world of electronic and automated trading programs, it still amazes me that psychological levels are still a factor.
The Magic Levels Trading Pattern
