[GVI Forex 2]

Next Fed pick?

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[Mtl JP]

GVI 2:27 / supply and demand … miehh

I see traders as insidious minds, society’s marginals, laying in some hideout behind some bush, waiting, thinking , analysing the environment and not shy to shoot in the back. Certainly not willing to share the number of bullets or their caliber prior to deployment.

The only goal is to take maximum advantage of the surroundings such as gaming Jerome’s “agony” of being in charge of a FED with a dual mandate.

[Mtl JP]

ST 11:28 / stagflation does not have a generally accepted precise numerical value metric
In fact assorted “experts” argue about a yes or no “are we in it”

So peasants like me can only surmize how various devinations by the policy-makers are affected by their own fear of a y or n and their trickle here trickle there signalings of their un-ease and what they might be preparing to interfere. (see kashkari for ex)

And then of course is market’s own perception and what IT is doing to various assets pricing.

Which is the rubbing point: making profits from the phenomenon.
Wheter it is bad or good for the state is not as important as is how to position for juicing it for profits.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD… void on charts to near 1.18

Above 1.16 targets 1.1650 if 1.1635 (holding so far) is taken out.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

To turn the retracement into a short-term uptrend, 6292 needs to hold and 6354 (61.8%) taken out.

Otherwise, consolidation.

Below 6292 would target 6254.

Major levels: 6214 and 6441

[GVI Forex 2]

Crude oil  pops briefly (pop and drop) on this headline

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[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD

This is why I use my Amazing Trader charting algo… it always gives me a level to trade (and where to place a stop) in the heat oif batte.

Pause above 1.1615 kept the bid and has seen a run back to the upside.

EURUSD 15 MINUTE CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, Trading Tip

It is all about supply and demand and ability or inability of market to absorb one side or the other.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Equity Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

Dollar down,mled by EURUSD, following dovish Fed comments

 

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[Mtl JP]

USDYEN 147.50
–
looking at some charts (like the 1 hr)
puppy is currently and still in a range

feels like something should be happening to the pair too

[Mtl JP]

GVI 12:12 “Trading Tip”

Concider that FX market is unfriendly and that it loves to inflict pain (by backing up and taking one’s stop)
it delights in shaking off the “weak” (read fearful, anxious) players which does not refer to size of account but the greed and fear turbulemce between one’s ears.

[GVI Forex 2]

Crypto Update

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BTCUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin 4h

Supports: 113.800, 113.500 & 112.800

Resistances: 114.420, 115.100 & 115.755

Intraday pressure Up – as long as 113.800 holds

BTC has to take out 116.500 to be able to test previous highs.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

1.15950 gave a way and now EUR is going for 1.16900

Resistances: 1.16150, 1.16450 & 1.16900

Supports: 1.15950, 1.15850 & 1.15700

Intraday pressure UP as long as 1.15950 holds its ground.

[GVI Forex 2]

 

Trading Tip:

Retracements are a necessary evil as weak longs or shorts need to be shaken out before making a run at a new high or low. This is true for longer term as well as shorter time frame charts.

Example 1: Tuesday’s EURUSD correction dip to 1.1527 failed to reach 1,1516 support and helped set up today’s move through 1.16.

Example 2: Today: 1.1564 => 1.1610 => 1.1593  (mini retracement) =>  setup near retest 1.1610 => 1.1598 (mini retracement) => setup new high at 1.1615

It looks easy in hindsight but you can see why shaking out weak shorts or longs makes it harder for a market to absorb fresh buying or selling with the prevailing trend. While technical traders tend to focus just on FIBO retracement levels, there is a logic behind how retracements impact trading.

 

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1607
–
bias: uP
Res 1.1640/50
Sup 1.1550/40/30

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 98.52 at 7:43 AM EDT
– currently puppy looks tilted down
— for an amalgam of various fundamental reasons

bessent peddles off 42bln of 10yr paper

cook, collins and daly yak in the afternoon

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD

Why levels matter

Tested next resistance at 1.3330 (see earlier post)

Support on dips while above 1.3300 but likely take its cue from EURUSD 1.16

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART

 

[ST London]

I said this before

Bad mix for US if growth slows with sticky inflation

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSDL DOUBLE TOP AT 1.1610… keepa a bid while above 1.1593, stronger if 1.16+

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD in its role as the anti-dollar sets the overall tone for the dollar… this is why 1.16 is now pivotal

GBPUSD playing a little catchup.. resistance remains around 1.3530

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX

Break of 98.60 (low 98.57) coincided with EURUSD stops run above 1.16

Using USDX as a proxy for the EURUSD (57.6% of the index) suggests sub-98.60 would require a solid 1.16+ to build momentum below it

EURUSD last at 1.1594 after a high at 1.1610

USDX 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Finally… EURUSD 1.16 trades… see now if it becomes support

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD)

3 blue AT (Amazing Trader) lines indicating a potential change in direction BUT this would only be confirmed by a break of 3350.

Otherwise, just consolidation between 3350-90 with fallback support at 3340-50.

Another way to look at it is using these pivotal levels

Keeps a bid while above 3350

3380 dictates whether it makes a run at 3400 and above

XAUUSD (GOLD)

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a Heatmap shows…

… the dollar trading mixed with EURUSD continuing to hover but hesitate below a tempting 1.16 and USDJPY up a touch but staying below 148.

AUD and NZD outperforming, suggesting some cross flows vs the JPY

Gold has backed off but remains above 3350

US stocks are up but just consolidating.

US bond yields are up with US 10 year yield again stalling just below 4.20%

Quiet economic calendar.

One day until tariff rates kick in on Aug 7

Aug 7-9 is Trump’s deadline for new sanctions against Russia

[ST London]

This caught my attention

Stagflation-ISM

The stagflation red flags raised by U.S. service sector activity figures on Tuesday are a reminder that the world’s largest economy and most important central bank face significant challenges in the months ahead.

Investors took their cue more from the bubbling price pressures in the ISM services report than the signs of softening activity. Treasury yields crept up and rate cut expectations were trimmed as a result.

From a Reuters teport

[Mtl JP]

euronews
French PM Bayrou launches podcast and YouTube series to defend his 2026 budget cuts

France’s public deficit hit 5.8% of GDP in 2024, totalling €168.6 billion, a figure well above the maximum allowed by EU rules.

On 15 July, the prime minister presented a massive savings plan, targeting nearly €44 billion for the 2026 budget.

In his announcement, Bayrou outlined significant budget cuts to slash tens of billions of euros, aiming to bring the deficit down to 5.4% of GDP this year and 4.6% in 2026.

Among the most controversial measures are slashing two bank holidays and freezing retirement pensions and social benefits.

chief frog macron stands behing his PM claiming that the presented strategy is solid, factual and lucid, one that the country needs …

[Author]

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