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COMING UP: Data: Japanese Trade Balance (Aug), UK Inflation (Aug), Italian Inflation Final (Aug), ECB Wage Tracker (Aug), US Retail Sales (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), New Zealand GDP (Q2)
Events: Fed Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement, BoC Minutes
Speakers: ECB’s Vujcic, Elderson, Nagel; Fed Chair Warsh Supply: Australia, Germany
Newsquawk US Market Wrap – Stocks slide and Dollar gains as eyes turn to FOMC
SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries steepen, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold flat
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(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)
US500 4 HOUR: Still on the defensive
Remains on the defensive, especially while below 7600 but so far 7575 (double bottom) has checked the downside. On the upside, back above 7650 would be needed to break current momentum and keep thoughts away from 7500-50 (on this CFD chart). In any case, barring a surprise headline, it is hard to see big bets ahead of the FOMC
Forex Market Snapshot
- USD remains firemr on the day but struggling to build on a higher NY opening.
- JPY remains weakest but spent the session pivoting 155 (currently above) as it stays below its eovernight 155.24 high.\
- US yields still up but backing off (10-year pivoting 5.00%) after moving higher overnbight, leaving markets in a wait-and-see mode ahead of Wed’s FOMC.
Market Update (1 HOUR)
Feels like the calm before the next storm day (FOMC tomorrow) .
US 10-year 4.996% as it pivots 5.00%/- EURUSD: Inside day but upside again contained by 1.1550-52 (USDJPY underperformer, trading just above 155)
- US500: On the defensive but so far holding .7575 again (see chart) for a double bttom
- XBRUSD: Regaining a bid but facing an obstacle at 110+
BTCUSD DAILY: Clinging to support
Clinging to support with a pause just above 75482 (low 75503) as momentum tries to build to the downside. As long as support holds though range is intact.
Just in case: With a huge void below it, use 75K as fallback support that needs to hold to limit the downside and avoid putting 70-72K back on the map.
BTCUSD continues to oscillate within its over-three-week range of roughly 77,000-80,500, losing📉 momentum near 77,270 and putting the floor back in focus. Still, the price remains above the 50- and 200-day moving averages after decisively breaking above its longer-term descending📉 trendline drawn from the yearly highs,
GOLD target for the bears will be the $4,200 level, followed by $4,100. A drop below $4,100 would expose June’s eight- month low of $3,942, putting the yellow metal back on its long-term📉 downtrend path.
However, if the Fed surprises by not raising rates tomorrow, or a hike is not accompanied by a convincingly hawkish tone, gold could 📈bounce higher, initially targeting $4,400. A break above $4,400 would shift the focus to the 200-day SMA at $4,539 before the bulls re-test the August peak just below $4,700
USDJPY 4 HOUR: Will the BoJ intervene?
With short-term momentum turning up and USDJPY testing back above 155 for the first time in over a week, will the BoJ try to resist and intervene? Given a generally firm USD tone and rising US bond yields, the BoJ might try to slow the market but it is doubtful an ambush would be effective. In this last episode before the BoJ ambush, the upside stalled below the 61.8% level so keep an eye on FIBOS in the absence of key nearby levels as well as the pivotal 155 level.
XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR: Key supports?
Trying to build on its break of a 7-day pattern around 4400 where charts show a void of key supports until around 4000. This suggests using the most recent low (4253) and key round numbers (e.g. 4200) as key supports. Back above 4280-00, at a minimum, is needed to slow the risk.
COMING UP: Data: Chinese Activity Data (Aug), UK Jobs/Wages (Jul), French/Spanish Inflation Final (Aug), German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep), US ADP Employment Change Weekly
Speakers: ECB’s Cipollone Supply: Japan, UK, Germany, US
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