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Market Update: Risk off
Stocks tumbling after Meta and Tesla earnings failed to impress, weighing on yields with USDJPY following.
USDJPY currently pivoting 157.00 (low 156.82) with key support at 156.37 the last line of defense before a void on the downside. Upside limited unless 157.50+ is regained.
XAUUSD failing again to catch a safe haven bid with its tumble testing and holding its 4066 low for a double bottom. However, this is so far only offering a respite as back above 4106 is needed to cool the risk.
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is trading down (except vs. the AUD and NZD) as a risk off mood (weaker equities) has sent US yields lower (US bonds seeing a safe haven bid) to the benefit of an outperforming JPY and CHFÂ while EUR and GBP lag.
The CAD is also extending its recovery vs. the dollar, testing its 50% FIBO (1.4020) potential obstacles at 1.40 and 1.3950 (61.8% levels below it.
EURGBP is only marginally lower despite the French vs German bond spread widening further.
Tesla
Tesla’s Q3 revenue was flat at $28.05B, in line with forecasts. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.48 beat the ~$0.45 consensus. Gross margin recovered to 19.6%, but operating income fell 56% to $718M as AI and Optimus spending climbed. Free cash flow swung back positive at $1.53B. The earnings call is at 5:30 pm ET.
Meta
Meta beat on both lines. Q3 revenue came in at $64.6B, up 26% y/y, against roughly $63.3B expected, and EPS was $3.83 versus about $3.57. A $9.9B legal charge pushed operating income down 37%; excluding it, EPS would have been $7.40. Q4 revenue guidance was above consensus, and shares rose after hours.
Dollar Steady, Yields Parked Above 5%
Treasuries barely moved: the 10-year was near 5.11%, the 2-year rose 2bp to 4.80%, and the 30-year eased to 5.42%. The euro is under pressure from fiscal concerns in France, trading near 1.1225. Buyers have support near 1.1190 but have yet to clear resistance at 1.1245.
Gold Slips for a Fourth Straight Session
Spot gold fell for a fourth straight session to around $4,121, hitting its lowest since October 15 in earlier trade. The driver is oil feeding rate expectations. Hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI last week showed price pressures remain elevated on soaring energy prices. Gold is down about 5.4% over the past month.
Brent Back Above $110, Then Fades
Oil jumped more than $2, with Brent reaching $110.85 by 1048 GMT. The EIA added fuel: US crude inventories dropped 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million, more than the expected 820,000-barrel decline. The gains didn’t hold, though. Brent later stood at $109.04 and WTI at $97.72
US500 vs NAS100 (4 hour CFD charts)
US500: Break of 7765 so far not holding (high 7772), firmly above still needed to confirm a shift in risk and build momentum for a run at 7800+. Otherwise, upside cools but keeps a bid as long as 7700+ trades.
NAS100: As noted, has a bigger hill to climb to negate its risk where 30027 needs to be taken out to indicate a shift.
US500 vs NAS100 (4 hour CFD charts)
US500 trying to break a 6-day pivot around 7700, which would be a bullish sign but only confirmed by a firm break of 7765.
NAS100 has more of an uphill climb with 30027 needing to be taken out to confirm a break in momentum. Key focus is looking ahead to earnings reports after the close.
USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX) 4 HOUR: Lagging indicator
On the defensive as the dollar side seems to be having more trouble absorbing the various cross flows. Key support is at 101.51 with a weaker EUR (e.g. EURGBP) making USDX more of a lagging than leading indicator. Note EUR represents 57.6% of the index.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) raised its outlook on stronger demand for AI systems,
SpaceX (SPCX) gained after results as AI revenue and Starlink growth encouraged buyers.
Netflix (NFLX), meanwhile, fell after a disappointing fourth-quarter outlook overshadowed better-than-expected earnings, a reminder that beating estimates does not guarantee a higher stock price.
In the US attention turns to tech after the close. Meta’s call is at 4:30 p.m. ET, with Tesla’s following an hour later. FactSet expects Tesla to earn $0.45 a share on about $27.9 billion in revenue, and Meta $6.67 a share. IBM and Lam Research also report tonight. With NAS100 already struggling below 30K, the reaction to these numbers could set the tone for indices into Thursday.
Market Movers: UK inflation surprise, Meta and Tesla tonight
UK CPI rose 3.5% year on year in September, up from 3.1% in August and above the 3.4% consensus. That’s the highest rate since September 2023. Fuel prices were the main driver, and the print has firmed up expectations of a Bank of England rate rise. That keeps GBP crosses and gilt yields in focus.
How Currency Crosses Help You Find the Side to Trade
A forex chart shows where a currency pair is trading. It does not always explain why it is moving.
You might see GBPUSD rally while EURUSD barely changes. At another time, the euro falls while sterling rises, leaving traders who are focused on the dollar searching for an explanation.
One place to look is the currency crosses.
AUDUSD DAILY: Weekly whipsaw
AUDUSD trying for a breakout to the upside following last week’s outside week to the downside.
While .7000 is likely most important in keeping a strong bid, .7013+ is needed to maintain a breakout.
Looking for a driver, look at AUD crosses, not just EURAUD but AUDJPY as well.
GBPUSD 4 HOUR: Path of least resistance
Supported by a weaker EURGBP, GBPUSD would need to establish 1.3400+ as support to open a void to 1.35+ (high 1.3409).
If not, potential for a lower top that needs to hold 1.3362 to avoid some down momentum although only sub-1.3298 would negate the risk to the upside.
Note market following the path of least resistance by selling EURGBP.
Worth a read after another attempt by markets at a “Hope Trade” today
Hope Is Not a Trading Strategy: Understanding Hope Trades
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