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FTSE 100 Little Changed on Tuesday
The FTSE 100 traded mostly flat on Tuesday as investors kept a close eye on developments around US tariffs.
President Donald Trump issued his first round of letters warning trading partners of higher duties, while Europe is negotiating to lock in a 10% tariff rate past the August 1 deadline, seeking exemptions for key products.
Trump stated that the increased tariffs won’t take effect until August, signaling that there’s still room for negotiation.
On the corporate front, Entain shares rose 2.5% after Bank of America upgraded the stock, citing strong performance from its BetMGM joint venture in the US. BP shares were little changed after the company signed a deal with Libya’s National Oil Corporation to explore reviving two major oil fields.
XRP price must break this key level to reclaim $3
Key takeaways:
· XRP price needs to break above the $2.20-$2.30 range and 200-day SMA at $2.36 to clear a path to $3.
· XRP/BTC breaks multimonth downtrend as RSI shows a bullish divergence.
XRP XRPUSD price remained unchanged on Tuesday, down 0.1% over the last 24 hours to trade at $2.26. Analysts highlighted the key resistance levels that must be broken on the path toward $3.
XRP must reclaim the 200-day SMA
XRP must close above the $2.20-$2.30 range on the daily chart. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is at $2.22, and the 100-day SMA is at $2.20. After that, bulls are required to overcome the resistance at $2.36, the 200-day SMA, to target higher highs above $3.
Historically, flipping the 200-day SMA into support has always preceded a massive rally in XRP price. For example, the last time the XRPUSD pair crossed above the 200-day SMA in November 2024 was followed by a 430% rally in price to a multiyear high of $2.90 reached on Dec. 3, 2024.
XRP/BTC looks to snap multimonth downtrend
XRP is also showing bullish signs against Bitcoin (BTC). On Sunday, the XRP/BTC pair broke above a multimonth descending trendline at 0.00002065. This line has acted as resistance for the pair since March.
A retest of the trendline will confirm the end of the downward trend, clearing the path for the XRP/BTC pair to break out higher.
XRP/BTC breakout from a symmetrical triangle could lead to 70% gains, which would also probably send the XRP price above $3.
FX option expiries for 8 July 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day
That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1700 level. The pair is keeping just below its key hourly moving averages but the expiries here should help to limit further downside for now.
The dollar may have advanced yesterday but EUR/USD is still up over 8.5% since the start of April. So, that puts into context the dollar’s state of being since the whole reciprocal tariffs drama. And that is now extending further to 1 August at the very least.
There’s also relatively large expiries at the 1.1700 mark all through the week. So, that might also keep price action more interested around the region. Or at least act as some added layer that sellers will have to chew through depending on market developments.
We’ll be getting €3.0 billion tomorrow, then €1.4 billion on Thursday, and then €1.5 billion on Friday – based on the current snapshot. The sizes should change as we move closer to the respective expiry dates above.
USD/JPY: Yen Plummets Against Dollar as Trump Slaps Japan with 25% Tariff
Key points:
· Yen wipes out 1.5%
· Trump issues tariff plan
· Dollar gains across the board
US dollar once again swayed forex markets like a punching bag after Trump sent out letters to heads of countries. Japan’s verdict? Failure to reach a deal and a 25% tariff rate effective August 1.
Yen Craters on 25% Tariff\
The USDJPY pair ripped higher Monday and extended its rally into early Tuesday, blasting through the ¥146.00 mark to hit a fresh session high of ¥146.50 — up 1.5% in less than two days.
The move came after President Trump on Monday confirmed Japan failed to secure a trade deal before the deadline, triggering a snapback to a 25% tariff rate starting August 1.
Forex bros were quick to slam the yen, betting that Japan’s export-heavy economy will take a hit just as it faces fragile growth and stubborn inflation.
Return of the Tariffs
The tariff slap isn’t personal — Trump posted screenshots of identical “form letters” sent to at least 14 nations, including South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar.
The letters dictate blanket tariffs of up to 40% on imports from these countries, with a line that the US will “perhaps” reconsider the rates “depending on our relationship with your Country.”
Under Trump’s original “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2, Japan was looking at a 24% rate, but that was paused to 10% for 90 days. Now, the reprieve is nearing its end — unless the White House walks it back yet again.
FX Just Got Volatile
With just three weeks until the August 1 switch flips the tariffs back to full force, forex markets are bracing for more swings in the yen.
Japanese officials were reportedly blindsided by Trump’s Monday posts, with little hope of brokering a last-minute deal as the US president, in his usual style, updated everyone on social media.
What happens now? Will Japan seek to retaliate — or will the yen stay pinned under pressure as the trade hit ricochets through its massive automotive and tech export sectors?
Euro Nears 2021 High Amid Progress on US-EU Trade Deal
The euro rose slightly above $1.175, nearing its highest level since August 2021, as trade tensions eased after news that the US had proposed a deal to the EU maintaining a 10% baseline tariff, with exemptions for sensitive sectors such as aircraft and spirits.
The EU is aiming to finalize a preliminary agreement with the US this week to lock in the 10% rate beyond the August 1 deadline while negotiations continue toward a permanent deal.
Investor sentiment also improved after President Donald Trump spared the EU from additional tariffs ahead of the initial July 9 deadline.
On Monday, the EU announced it was preparing retaliatory tariffs on a range of US products in response to US metal duties.
Officials warned that if an agreement isn’t reached, further actions—such as export controls and restrictions on US access to public contracts—could be implemented.
On the monetary policy front, markets are now pricing in just one more rate cut from the European Central Bank this year.
SocGen’s Overnight Economic News Summary
— US dollar soft with lower United States Treasury yields in Asia, yen (JPY) and won (KRW) fractionally firmer after President Trump announces intent to impose 25% tariffs on goods from Japan and South Korea on Aug. 1, raise levies on South Africa, Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia. Deadline not firm, open to extensions.
— Reserve Bank of Australia leaves cash rate target at 3.85% by 6-3 MPC vote versus consensus forecast of 25bps cut to 3.60%. Board needs more time to judge whether inflation is on track to reach 2.5% on a sustainable basis. AUDUSD +0.7% at 0.6540, three-year ACGB yield +12bps at 3.43%.
— Day ahead: U.S. NFIB small business optimism, three-year UST auction. European Central Bank speaker Nagel. Romania’s central bank (NBR) forecast to stay on hold. Chile’s consumer price index.
— CFTC foreign exchange positions: euro net longs reduced to 13.8%, yen longs trimmed to 40.5%, sterling longs decreased to 16.6%, Australian dollar shorts reduced to 46.3%, Canadian dollar (CAD or loonir) shorts raised to 31.2%, short Swiss franc upped to 32.8%, Mexico’s peso longs increased to 35.6%.
— Nikkei +0.1%, EUR 10-year IRS 2.5bps at 2.62%, Brent crude -0.3% at $69.4/barel, Gold -0.1% at $3,333/oz.
AUDUSD Chart
USDJPY
Extending high to 146.44, just shy of pivotal 146.50.
With little on charts until 148.02, I posted this last night
One potential range is 145.50-146.50, above the upper end is what would be needed to put 148 on the radar
In any case, upside at risk as long as it trades above today’s 145.82 low.
USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows..
…the dollar trading mixed to weaker
EURUSD firmed but struggling to stay above 1.1750 after failing yesterday to test 1.1680 and then popping higher after the 10% tariff report, It was a classic example of it’s the news that matters as the report came from an EU source and not the White House
AUDUSD firmed after A surprise RBA hold on rates
USDJPY has been an exception by trading firmer but has backed off its high after pausing below 146.50
Gold is lower as it consolidates after a quiet start to the day
US bonds yields up as touch more after rising yesterday.
US stocks trading a touch higher
Quiet data day
July 9 trade deal deadline pushed out to August 1
14 letters with tariff rates included Japan, South Korea, Thailand
EURUSD pops higher on this headline but treat such reports cautiously, especially given the word “caveats” and until/unless you get confirmation from Trump’s lips
Is anyone really surprised to see the tariff can kicked down the road?
NAS100 (NASDAQ)
Similar to US500
Two blue Amazing Trader lines drawn off the high and followed by the break of 22632 indicates a top and potential change in direction or at a minimum a loss of upward momentum.
For downside momentum to build, 22390 would need to be taken out.
Otherwise it is consolidation with a limited upside unless 22843 is broken
NAS100 4 HOUR CHART
US500 (SP500)
Two blue Amazing Trader lines drawn off the high and followed by the break of 6224 indicates a top and potential change in direction or at a minimum a loss of upward momentum. .
For downside momentum to build, 6177 would need to be taken out.
Otherwise it is consolidation with a limited upside unless 6270- is broken
US500 4 HOUR CHART
XAUUSD (GOLD)
A key takeaway from XAUUSD today is that it caught a safe haven bid when risk off mood increased.
On the upside, needs to take out 3345-65 to build momentum. Otherwise, it is more consolidation BUT
On the downside, 3295 has flipped again between support and resistance, now the former provides a floor while above it.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART
ST has been warning us since last week about being complacent… stocks got whacked, USD popped higher
What’s Hot and What’s Not?
What’s Hot
US dollar remains firmer on the day but off earlier high
Crude oil has bounced following a gap down opening
What’s not
All currencies with JPY an underperformer and GBP an outperformer (note crosses0
Gold is down on the day but found support and rebounded from 3295 support
US stocks are lower vs. Thursday’s closing levels
US bonds are weaker (yields higher)
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