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Crypto Market Slows Down As Fed Rate Cut Expected In September
Bitcoin is hovering near $103,700. There is growing uncertainty in its price action as global tensions rise. Retail sentiment is also weakening, adding to the pressure on BTC. But the current dip may just be a cool-off phase, and not the end of the bull cycle.
Retail Sentiment Hits April Lows
Crypto analytics firm Santiment shared recently that the retail sentiment has turned sharply negative, hitting its lowest point since early April. This is similar to levels seen in April, just before Bitcoin rebounded. With bearish comments rising, the panic could signal a rebound.
The Fed rates are also steady, which has kept BTC stuck between $100K and $ 110 K. On-chain data shows that whales are accumulating while traders pull back.
A Healthy Cool-Off Phase?
The crypto market is currently in a slow correction phase. Altcoins have been declining since December, while Bitcoin remains stuck between $100K and $ 107K. Ethereum is struggling below $3,000, and overall trading volume is dropping, which are clear signs that retail investors are staying out for now.
However, there have been no major crashes or negative events. This is a typical cooling-off period within a larger uptrend, similar to what happened in 2017 and 2021. These phases often follow major rallies and can last a few months.
Looking ahead, there is a positive macro signal too. The Fed may cut rates in September, with a 71.8% chance according to CME FedWatch. This could boost crypto markets, and even the anticipation of rate cuts can lift sentiment and bring life back to risk assets.
Cycle May Extend Into 2026
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal also believes that the current crypto market closely resembles 2017, when Bitcoin rose steadily before exploding in December. He notes that macro conditions indicate that this cycle could be longer than expected, possibly extending into Q2 2026.
Many long traders were recently wiped out on Binance as open interest dropped. This “cleanup” happened right after the Fed paused rate hikes. With fewer traders now in risky positions and past trends showing Bitcoin often rises after such events, CryptoQuant analysts see this as a potential setup for a Bitcoin bounce.
ETH Sell Off Surge! Who Is Selling Ethereum?
Ethereum is currently trading at $2442.32, down over 4% in the past day. In the last 24 hours, Ethereum has moved between $2389.71 and $2556.98.
Bearish Pressure Grows as Dormant Wallets Turn Active
ETH’s Liveliness has hit a record high of 0.69, according to Glassnode, indicating that long-term holders are moving their coins and are likely to sell. This rise shows dormant accounts are becoming active amid weak demand and a sluggish market, adding to the growing bearish pressure on Ethereum.
Data from Defilama shows that the Ethereum chain has experienced a significant drop over the past few weeks. It has dropped from 27.99 million ETH on the 6th of May to around $25 million.
Besides, weak buying interest and falling capital inflows are adding to the pressure. If selling continues, it could fall to $2,185 or even to its May low. However, a bounce in demand could flip the trend and shift momentum back to the upside.
ETF Outflows Add to Short-Term Price Risks
On June 20, Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $11.3 million, according to Farside Investors. The biggest withdrawal came from ETHA with $19.7 million, while ETH and ETHV saw modest inflows of $6.6M and $1.8M. Other ETFs reported no activity.
Ether Sees Huge Liquidations
Ethereum has seen $170 million liquidations in the last 24 hours, with $157 million in long positions. Santiment data shows that ETH is flowing into centralized exchanges at an unusually high rate, significantly more than outflows. Unless buying picks up, ETH could face more short-term downside.
ETH Stuck Below $2.5K
Ethereum’s moving averages also show a mostly bearish picture. Short-term indicators like the 10-day to 30-day EMAs and SMAs are all signaling sell, with prices below key resistance levels around $2,500.
If Ethereum breaks above the $2,800–$2,850 resistance zone in the next 30 days, it could climb toward $3,000. This move may be backed by strong fundamentals and new inflows from ETH ETFs. But the current trend is weak, so a real breakout will need stronger buying momentum to hold. But if macro conditions worsen, it risks dropping to $2,280.
ETHUSD – Ethereum
Ether correcting nicely after hitting a high at 2880.00
Resistances: 2450.00, 2480.00 & 2505.00
Supports: 2380.00, 2365.00 & 2250.00
Ideal scenario would be for Ether to reach support trendline at 2250.00 and bounce back up – and continue towards current target in 3200.00 area
If however 2250.00 lost, the whole rally would be negated and would open a road for retest of 1380.00
XAUUSD
Momentum: Down but trying to form support… still a retracement?
Trying to regain a safe haven bid after pausing in 2 attempts to break 3338 support.
On the upside, 3378+ is needed to cool the risk but only 3400-05+ would reverse it.
Note 3350 = 50% of 3200 => 3500, a “50” level that will help set the tone going forward.
3315 = 61.8%
<p style=”text-align: center;”>XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART</p>
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