[Mtl JP]

Of Belligerence
–
President Trump’s 90 day pause expires on the 12th
– new tariff gimmicks likely on deck

Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” promises the first new tax break for older Americans since 2017, a temporary “senior bonus” deduction that could reduce many retirees’ taxable income by up to $6,000 each year from 2025-28.

Beijing excludes European companies
China announced on Sunday that it was excluding European Union companies from large public orders for medical equipment.
… measures presented as “reciprocal” after similar restrictions taken against Chinese firms in the EU.

[Mtl JP]

Lets see if “Fool and his money soon part company” holds ?

Musk says ‘America Party’ is formed in US
By Reuters – July 5, 20254

[Mtl JP]

Opinion and speculation

Xi Jinping’s surprise no-show at BRICS Summit fuels speculation about China’s global standing

The first-ever absence by Xi from the key emerging economies gathering raises questions about China’s dominance in the fractious alliance
By Morgan Phillips Fox News

[Belgrade Bobby]

ETHUSD – Ethereum

Ether just couldn’t profit with this last push Up.

Now the whole picture is starting to look very Bearish.

There are some important supports that might give some footing, but if lost space is open for run at 1360.00

Supports: 2440.00, 2275.00 & 2105.00

Resistances: 2530.00, 2635.00 & 2725.00

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

BTC got rejected at horizontal resistance at 110.600/110.800

This is now triple top , paired with probable bearish close tonight – below 108.050 would bring tomorrow test of supports.

Supports: 107.300, 105.000 & 102.635

To avoid this scenario BTC should finish tonight above 108.500

[GVI News]

Trump tariff letters going to a dozen countries Monday

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights 7-11th July 2025

Highlights include Trump trade deadlines, FOMC Minutes, OPEC+, RBA, RBNZ, UK GDP and Canada jobs

[Mtl JP]

meaning … that as tariffs raise revenue and some governments, now including the U.S., see them as a better tax than some others

hahahaha …. tariffs will be with us for a long while – Jack Mintz, FPost

[Mtl JP]

Addicted to Money

–

U.S. tariff receipts surge in Donald Trump’s trade war
Figures show record US$24.2 billion raised from the levies in May but highlight potential for distortion to global trade flows

United States tariff revenues surged almost fourfold from a year earlier to a record US$24.2 billion in May.

[ST London]

After striking only a few trade deals since declaring a 90-day pause in April, President Trump said he would announce new duties starting Friday.

[ST London]

Are markets too complacent?

From Reuters

Trump’s propensity to issue a threat, or impose a new tariff, only to reverse course shortly afterwards has led to turmoil over the past three months.

Investors, however, have now become somewhat inured to this sort of policymaking on the fly. And, as a result, there is little evidence at this point that many are preparing for fireworks on July 9. Instead, most expect some kind of delay, pause or compromise.

What that will look like, however, is anyone’s guess.

[Mtl JP]

American patriots, besides their own heros, need to give recognition and apprecation to Britsh General Thomas Gage for his military screw-up (“shot heard around the world”) – which remains under dispute as to who fired it first – at Lexington and Concord

[Mtl JP]

Risk-off on this july 4th with little tariff nego progress
players appear apprehensive about trump’s tariff letters to countries
ranging from 10-70% , to be in force august 1

DXY bias tilted down. Sup 96.50
“incoming data” does not look like a motivation for FED gang to cut in july
yyik-yak squawkings from the peanut gallery continue to diss the fed, bessent postulating a no july cut would likely mean bigger one in sept. bessent appears to be making a case for a political FED

[GV News]

Bitcoin price can hit $150K in weeks thanks to Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’

Key points:

·         Bitcoin gained 38% when US President Trump signed a major spending bill in late 2020.

·         Doing so again would put BTCUSD at $150,000 as Trump prepares to sign his “Big Beautiful Bill” into law.

·         Global liquidity trends continue to favor BTC price upside, but Bitcoin may peak first.

 

Bitcoin BTCUSD could gain nearly 40% after US President Donald Trump signs his “Big Beautiful Bill” on Independence Day.

Crypto market participants are eyeing swift BTC price gains as Trump’s “massive” spending bill becomes reality.

”Big Beautiful Bill” sparks COVID-19 bull market comparisons

Bitcoin has historically reacted extremely positively to signals that US borrowing will increase. Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” could be no exception, as estimates see US national debt exploding to $40 trillion in 2025.

If the same price action were to follow the Big Beautiful Bill, Bitcoin would end up passing $150,000.

On July 3, global M2 hit a new all-time high of more than $55.4 trillion.

[GV News]

Hong Kong Stocks End Week in Red Amid Report on Deteriorating Business Conditions, US Tariff Uncertainty; Anjoy Foods Slumps on Hong Kong Debut

Hong Kong stocks ended the week in red on Friday amid a report the region’s private sector continues to experience deterioration and renewed uncertainty over US tariff policy as a 90-day pause on higher levies nears its end.

The Hang Seng Index fell 153.88 points, or 0.64%, to 23,916.06, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was down 39.17 points, or 0.45%, to 8,609.27.

New orders and output fell more sharply in June than in May, marking the fifth consecutive month of contraction, S&P Global said on Thursday.

The S&P Global Hong Kong SAR Purchasing Manager’s Index fell to 47.8 in June from 49.0 in May, with private sector firms citing weaker demand across both local and international markets, the report said.

Meanwhile, the US will begin sending letters on Friday to countries detailing 20%-30% tariff rates on goods, marking a shift from earlier plans to strike individual trade deals, President Donald Trump said.

In corporate news, one company made its trading debut on the Hong Kong bourse today.

Quick-frozen food company Anjoy Foods Group 603345 closed at HK$57, down 5% from its IPO price of HK$60.

HSI Index

 

[GV News]

USD/JPY: Dollar Falls Against Yen as Japan’s Tariff Deadline Looms — What Happens on July 9?

Key points:

·         Yen making moves early Friday

·         Japan’s tariff deadline is days away

·         Can the two sides reach a deal?

Japan’s currency is in limbo — officials now have just a few more days to come up with a proposal that will please Trump. But what if they don’t?

Yen Pops as Deadline Drama Builds

·         The USDJPY pair ticked lower against the yen early Friday, with the pair tumbling near ¥144.20 from a session high of ¥145.00 as traders were bracing for what could be a messy few days ahead.

·         All eyes are on July 9 — the date President Trump set for Japan to deliver a trade deal or face the threat of more tariffs, including a potential cap on auto exports.

·         The pair remains locked in its range, with Japan’s currency in limbo as uncertainty swirls over whether Tokyo and Washington can find common ground.

Japan Sticks to Its Rice and Cars

·         Behind the scenes, Japan’s negotiators have refused to bend to US demands that it swallow Trump’s 25% auto tariff, even when Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Trade Rep Greer threatened extra penalties.

·         Trump hasn’t helped clarity: one day he rants that Japan “won’t take our rice,” (even amid a domestic shortage) the next day he hints at scrapping the tariff deadline altogether.

·         Tokyo’s strategy: hold firm, reject any “voluntary export restriction,” and gamble that Trump either softens his stance or extends the clock.

·          Deadline or Bluff?

·         The July 9 date is starting to look more like a moving target, with Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trump sending mixed signals on whether an extension is possible.

·         Japan’s standoff mirrors the wider uncertainty — even as Trump boasts of new deals with Vietnam, China, and the UK, fresh threats keep traders guessing.

·         For the dollar-yen, the big question is whether a deadline surprise will break the pair out of its current range — or if this tariff saga just drags on into the summer.

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

Supports: 108.550, 106.600 & 105.150

Resistances: 110.000, 110.650 & 112.050

For today BTC has to hold above 108.550 to be able to continue up uninterrupted.

This is Bullish pattern on Daily and most probably 112K will be taken out in coming days.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports: 1.17700, 1.17500 & 1.17300

Resistances: 1.17850, 1.18100 & 1.18400

EUR in consolidation after being rejected on first attempt at 1.18400

Pressure is Up right now, but if goes below 1.17600 that will change

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows…

Thin markets and light liquidity with the US closed for the 4th of July

… the dollar trading modestly weaker… JPY the overperformer

… U.S. stock indices (CFDs) trading lower

… GOLD up but still below 3350

Hard to say which is the main focus

— Looming July 9 Trump tariff deal deadline

— Closer look at the US jobs report where a better NFP and drop in the jobless rate masked a slowing employment picture (which we pointed out yesterday after the report)

… Litle imnpact from the passing of the Big Beautiful Tax and Spending bull for now at least

[ST London]

Donald Trump has said the US will start sending letters to trading partners setting out tariff rates that countries will have to pay from the beginning of next month.

The US president told the media that about “10 or 12” letters would be sent out on Friday, with further letters sent out over the “next few days”.

His administration is expected to write to all of its trading partners without a deal in place before 9 July, the end of a 90-day pause on Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs”.

[GVI News]

Here’s what drove the June drop in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.1%:

Key Drivers Behind the Fall

1. Solid Job Growth
• Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 in June—well above the ~110K economists estimated .
• However, this strength was concentrated in government roles (especially state and local education), which added about 73K jobs .

2. Weak Private Sector Hiring
• The private sector saw only 74K new jobs, its slowest pace in roughly eight months .
• Gains were largely in healthcare, with other industries either stagnant or shedding jobs .

3. Labor Force Decline
• About 130K people exited the labor force in June .
• More comprehensive data point to a 329K drop in labor force participants .
• A shrinking labor force automatically puts downward pressure on the unemployment rate, even if job creation is modest.

To sum up

Headline rates look strong, but “under the hood,” there’s evidence of cooling labor demand, especially in private industries

[GVI News]

Test for GOLD without a safe haven bid

Hamas said okay with US guarantee on talks to end Gaza war, as ceasefire momentum grows

US-Iran nuclear talks to resume in Oslo next week for first time since war — report

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia – NVDA

Nvidia broke above last resistance – 158.65 in front of the Major one – 161.00 and stopped cold at it ( high 160.98 )

Close above 159.00 today gives it a chance to deal with 161.00 on Monday – tomorrow is 4th of July , so markets are closed for a prolonged weekend.

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX

Dax did all mentioned last night :

Support at 23.700 ( low 23.762 ) held

Resistance at 23.865 taken out

Higher high achieved -23.944

So what next?

The Pattern that we have right now suggests not only higher high tomorrow, but 24.120 attacked

If taken out, next target is at 24.480 – All time high

[GVI News]

JP they are state government jobs, not federal

[Mtl JP]

Jump in government payrolls … DOGE NOT doing an effectively good job

[GVI Forex 2]

XAU (GOLD)

Failure to hold the break above 3350-58 cools the upside but only back below 3300-11 would put the 3248 low in play again.

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD

My Amazing Trader chart speak for itself…I should frame it and hang it on my office wall… ISM services overreaction stopped dead on at 1.1790 (also the trendline), which fully retraces the US jobs drop

Focus stays on 1.1750 as a potential magnet and in any case, the bias setter

EURUSD 15 MINUTE CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM services slight beat, back above 50 but employment and prices paid down… typical FX overreaction

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[Author]

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