[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Supports at : 1.08200 & 1.08000

Resistances at : 1.08450/500 , 1.08700 & 1.08900

The angle is right, Pattern very Bullish – two options :

It hits straight to Resistance at 1.08900 –  in that case probability is it will Fail to break

It takes a breather and few days of consolidation – in that case we go through the resistance and about another 200 pips up from these levels, just to meet the Major Resistance line at 1.11

[michael Calif]

decline of unknown magnitutde due any time in Euro futures    :gtwo3

[Mtl JP]

twistididee twistididaah
–
in WSJ:
What’s Behind Powell’s Latest Shift on Rates
Achieving lower inflation without a significant slowdown is ‘the No. 1 thing’ keeping the Fed chair up at night. – By Nick Timiraos, July 10, 2024 3:10

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPJPY DAILY CHART – ALL GREEN CANDLES

Look at this Chart as it speaks for itself.

As I have noted, when two currencies move in oppoitte directions like today (GBP up, JPY down), there is real money driving the moves.

Closest support is just below 205.

This also makes it difficult for the BoJ to intervene as it is more than just a USDJPY move.

[SF Monedge]

Correction, 2yr note just went bid overall.  Something to pay attention to.  102’08 futures should hold looking outward.

[SF Monedge]

Reaction to 10yr auction did not change the downward trajectory of notes/bond.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 WEEKLY CHART – ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER RECORD HIGH

OnLy one 3 week retracement all year

Only resistance is the new record high

Daily chart shows closest support at 5444

[SF Monedge]

Had a brief call with someone I respect tremendously yesterday (Jay) regarding EurGbp.  My metrics show the pair remaining offered on buy cycles toward 8450/60 area for now.

On Crypto and the FED and Stablecoin – It is difficult to substantiate the thought that all crypto vehicles will be buried once the use of Stablecoin is established, but the ones that survive will be Bitcoin and a few that help the poor in poor countries, or offer something solidly unique and useful within realistic value of use.

A lot of talk from politicians regarding bank stability should a shock arise during the Powell testimony.  As I noted yesterday, major US banks recently roundingly passed stress tests and technology is improving.  The one issue concerning me is the effect of a major cyber attack should it occur and/or flat out war with the US and another major power(s), which one would think is unlikely unless some insane person gains access to terrible weaponry.  Otherwise the banking industry looks strong.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – EMBRACE THE RETRACE

The reality of trading is that trends often need a retracement, even a minot one before it can make a run at a new high (or low).

This seems to have been the case with GBPUSD, which still needs to Get through 1.2846 to challenege the key target at 1.2860.

Note EURUSD lag as EURGBP retreats further from .8460 tested yesterday (last .8428).

[SF Monedge]

Powell is doing a better job today, especially in fending off political hype mongers, including the genius from Georgia who tried to link FED policy with racial matters.  He noted intent and attention to the development of a Stablecoin, which will inevitably bury meme crypto “currencies.”  They are not currencies.  He also clearly noted the recent US fiscal policies are not sustainable.  This certainly reinforces the idea of a September rate cut of 0.25%.

[GVI Forex 2]

Powell: US fiscal policy is unustainable

[GVI Forex 2]

The old adage: Duh! It’s the reaction to news that matters applies to the GBP pop on Pill’s comments.

1.2846 is this week’s high. 1.2860 is key chart resistance.

[SF Monedge]

If the Sterling jump is going to run out of steam it should be right here around 2840/50.  Metrics noted earlier held weight today.

[SF Monedge]

Bitcoin should target 60000 from 58000 today/tomorrow in my metrics.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD spikes higher on BOE Pill’s comments… he sounded cautious over an August rate cut but didn’t  give any clear signal…thin market reaction but a reaction nonetheless

[SF Monedge]

Swiss Franc futures should bounce around 1212 this morning and so Usd/Chf should do the reverse from 8990ish if the current metrics stick.

[SF Monedge]

Euro metrics do not have the same robustness this morning as Sterling, they are a mix with a slight bid climate, so it could easily retain the existing overall sell cycle, which remains intact to this point today.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4H

Supports at : 1.08150/200 , 1.08050 & 1.07950

Resistances at : 1.08300 , 1.08450/500 & 1.08750

Lame and slow – can turn either way from here.

We need some incentive for this pair to get a life back….

[Mtl JP]

On Deck
after jerome’s act 2:
–
13:00 $39Billion of 10yr paper
14:30 goolsbee and bowman yak
19:30 cook yaks

[GVI Forex 2]

23.5 hours uniil US CPI when billions will trade on a fraction if a miss vs. the consensus, even if it is just the result of rounding up or down.

[SF Monedge]

Internals showing AudJpy wants to go over the figure, time will tell.  Interestingly the sell cycle in Sterling remains intact but internals are a scorching bid, so either Sterling breaks uphill strongly today or tomorrow and establishes a new buy cycle with higher full figure prints targeting 2900 + or continues to decline toward 2780.  Perhaps consider the offer around 2900/10.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – BOUNCE FROM AMAZING TRADER SUPPORT

I will let this chart do the talking and the uncanny ability of The Amazing Trader to identify key chart levels.

2348 held => 2379 then targeted => 2393 is the key recent high

[GVI Forex 2]

Why is the EURO referred to as the ANTI-DOLLAR?

See below

 

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDNZD WEEKLY CHART – BREAKOUT?

AUDNZD 1.1086 is a breakout level as it is a 2 year high.

So watch this level to see if the breakout is maintained.

AUDUSD is about unchanged while NZD is down 0.88%

[Mtl JP]

Yield | 6:54 AM EDT
4.273%
——
Anna Hirtenstein, WSJ:
Powell Set for Second Day of Testimony in Congress
As the Fed chair returns to testify, investors will be listening for further clues on the policy outlook.

Coming up:
Powell’s testimony starts at 10 a.m. ET.
Other Fed officials speaking Wednesday include Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee and Lisa Cook.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Even if U.S. inflation remains too irksome for the Federal Reserve to sound the all clear, there’s much less trepidation overseas.

Fed chair Jerome Powell gave little away in Tuesday’s congressional testimony, remaining coy about the timing of a first interest rate cut as the price picture remains murky but also doffing his cap to a softening jobs market.

Morning Bid: Calm markets as China skirts deflation, NZ doves coo

[GVI Forex 2]

No change to what I posted late yesterday

Let’s see what logic says

If you are short USD you probably would look to hang on until the US CPI report on Thursday, hoping for a surprise on the downside.

[GVI Forex 2]

Calm before the next storm day (US CPI on Thursday).

See our economic calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – 162 LOOMS

Look at how the red Amazing Trader lines are dominating as USDJPY enters the 161.50-162.00 nervous zone.

If I was the BoJ I would hope to see a downward surprise to US CPI tomorrow to give USDJPY some breathing room.

Otherwise, 161.50 is clearly pivotal as above it puts 162 in play.

Key level on the downside is at 160.50

Question going forward is whether there is a line in the sand level for the BoJ.

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – WATCH 1.28

Whatever orders were behind the GBPUSD retreat seem to have run their course (look at GBP crosses, including EURGBP which has backed off after .8460 resistance held).

Key levels:

1.2824, above puts the 1.2846 high in play

1.2779, below it extends the retracement

1.2800, sets the tone

[Author]

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