[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART – Tug-of War

.8580 is a pivotal area with the key .8625 high exposed if trading above it

Catalyst today was UK CPI

Note, when two currencies trade in opposite directions vs the USD, like a tug-of-war, it is a sign of real money cross flows driving it.

Market is having more trouble absorbing the EUR buying.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Let the Lines speak for themselves…..

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD WEEKLY CHART – ONLY ONE LEVEL MATTERS

What have you done for me lately?

This came to mind this morning after I nailed the direction and support yesterday (1.0945-50).

Looking across all currencies, the NZD is the big loser (-1.1%) while EURUSD is the outperformer, up while GBP and JPY are down vs. the dollar, providing demand for EUR out of its crosses.

EURUSD

The only level that matters is 1.10 as it just broke its 1.1008 daily resistance with key levels beyond it shown on this chart. I the absence of key nearby levels, 1.1020-50 is a potential resistance zone.

The support zone is 1.0980-00 and 1.0945-50/

Next key focus is on US CPI… tone will be set by 1.10 post-data

[Mtl JP]

TG If you are trading off some fundamental such as “not until the shooting starts from Iran” ….

Biden: Iran expected to push off attacking Israel if Gaza ceasefire deal clinched – timesofisrael

Iran officials suggest planned retaliation may be scrapped if Gaza ceasefire reached – timesofisrael

You just may have to wait some … and ignore David Ignatius in WaPO claim that “America anxiously awaits Iran’s threatened reprisal”

[SF Monedge]

I won’t take any “risk on” positions such as buying Eu until the shooting starts from Iran.  After the initial selling off and the US/Britain start firing back then ok.  Until then it will be trailing sell stop orders in EurUsd, EurJpy, and UsdChf and perhaps EurChf.

If the Islamic terrorists that Msnbc are so proud of actually do enough damage the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group will end that 3,000 year war in a week.

[GVI Forex 2]

MEMBERSHIP IS FREE!  (ignore free trial)
‘

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets treated PPI like it was CPI.

A soft PPI does not necessarily translate into a similar CPI reading.

With that said, it would take a hotter CPI to shake markets but even then it would not alter a widely expected Fed rate cut.

[Mtl JP]

Fed’s Bostic Says
More Data Needed, Rate Cut Likely by Year-End
Rate Cuts Are ‘Coming’—But He Needs More Data to Be Sure
a ‘little more data’ needed to support cutting rates

my translation of Bostic’s ‘says’:
*don’t get too hot under the collar you sons and daughters of mothers without a known father

Check out leisman:

[GVI Forex 2]

No change… USD upside limited ahead of CPI… so if it can’t go up, then risk is down… risk on mood otherwise

[SF Monedge]

AI PCs accounted for 14% of all personal computers shipped in the second quarter with Apple leading the way – Reuters.

Here is a simple window into how far AI has to go until it can rival the human mind in trading.  The section “Popular In Your Area” in a particular and massively visited site has the headlines “Ukrainian Forces Describe Rapid Offensive,” and “This Financial Firm’s Stock Dropped 50% Monday and Here is Why.”

I don’t live in Ukraine and I’m pretty sure that financial firm has offices on multiple continents, not just “near you.”

Its coming along though.  Just a tool Quants are developing for now.  Another 3 years or so.

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year 3.86%

Seeing some correlation with USDJPY (weaker)

EURUSD holding 1.0950

[SF Monedge]

This relative area should be the ceiling for the day in normal conditions for Eu.

[Mtl JP]

K.I.S.S – I currently lean towards NO CHANGE in sept from the FED

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – IS 1.10 BACK ON THE RADAR?

Needs to hold above 1.0945 (suggests 1.0945-50) to keep a bid that puts 1.10 back on the radar.

In any case, look for support on dips ahead of Wed’s US CPI but a stronger bid  if it can stay above 1.0945-50. .

[SF Monedge]

Good move in Eu.  Not enough to change the overall sell bias yet around 0950 in my view.  Other data pending and geopolitical tension not in support of a full on risk on environment.  Could overshoot on bids but not likely by much.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

This is where it goes – Up there…see the downtrend line…around 1.10

We see what happens there and we reassess again.

[GVI Forex 2]

By limit all I can say is USD shouldn’t race away ahead of CPI…

[Mtl JP]

Jay 12:44 – what is the limit to dlr’s downside

zero ?

[Mtl JP]

post PPI
US 10-YR 3.879% -0.03

[GVI Forex 2]

PPIP reactions have so far been limited but at a minimum, there should be a limit on the USD upside ahead of CPI barring some geopolitical event.

[GVI Forex 2]

US PPI softer than forecasts…

Yields down…dollar down…stocks up

I remember whebn PPI was largely ignored… not the case nowadays

See our Economic Calendar

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0927
–
Inside its range
Res 1.0950
Sup 1.0875

[Mtl JP]

Overnite Japanese stock players went nuts and it looks like carry trades are hot hot hot again ( tralalalaaah)
——–
August 13, 2024
pundits to the right of me, pundits to the left of me
if I only had a roc …
–
08:30 – PPI (ahead of Wednesday’s CPI)
– Expectation : +0.2% plus a few other metrics
– Players are want oh so badly to see data to be increasing FED’s “confidence” about inflation rate’s trajectory
– ATM players are pricing a sept cut but 50%-er is currently an outlier.
– Pretty well all market components appear discombobulated: DLRx up tiny bit, bonds narrow ditto stocks
–
VIX 20.50 screams volatility, tension, anxiety (all good things in my optique)

DLRx 102.95 looks softish atm
Sup 102.90; Res 103.50

13:15 – bostic yaks – on economy

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Much like Wall Street’s rapid healing on Friday, Japanese stocks completed their week-long, hair-raising round trip on Tuesday as Tokyo markets returned from holiday, wiped out the remainder of last week’s losses and nudged the yen lower.

Morning Bid: Market lull as PPI eyed, Nikkei returns to base

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATING

A case can be made for a 145-148 (or 146-148) consolidation range after the brief blip yesterday to 148.22 failed to follow through. A solid move above 148 would be needed to put 150 in play again.

If USDJPY settles into a range, then the cost of carrying a long JPY may become a factor.

Otherwise markets seem to be waiting for

Iran to attack

US CPI on Wednesday

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD retracement levels (high today 1,2813)

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Cable is testing the resistance at 1.28150 .

Supports come at : 1.27750 , 1.27600 & 1.27200

Only above 1.28150 we can talk about Bullish.

So far this looks like correction of a previous drop.

[GVI Forex 2]

Risk on start (stocks up)

GBPUSD tests 1.28 after UK jobs report

JPY trading softer (but USDJPY is still below 148)

EURUSD lagging on EURGBP dip

XAUUSD backing off after testing 2477 resistance (noted yesterday)

Markets seem to be betting on no Middle East escalation assuming Iran will launch its strike

US CPI on Wed is not expected to alter rate cut expectations barring a surprise

[Mtl JP]

SF 5:52 —- after the “intelligence” types laid out all their intelligence to the commander in chief, did biden plan and decide all that ?

[Mtl JP]

Jay 3:49 my personal preference is for timesofisrael

like this latest on their f/page

“IDF on ‘peak alert’ for Iran, Hezbollah attacks; US expects it may happen this week
By Agencies, Emanuel Fabian, ToI Staff and Jacob Magid
Senior officials say Iran has made same preparations as it did before April attack, though exact timing of launch unknown; army says still no changes to civilian guidelines”

FWIW

[Author]

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