[SF Monedge]

You should be absolutely safe selling Dow 4240 today  if seen again and/or not already in.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 30 MINUTE CHART

Note how GBPUSD regained its bid (last 1.3408) after whatever order flow that was driving this cross higher was filled.

.8355 support needs to hold to contain the downside.

[SF Monedge]

I feel generous today.  Cycle parameters almost always include either the 50 and 70 mark or the 60 and 40 mark for spots of conflict and potential reversal.  Today it is UsdJpy 143.50 and 70.  The more significant value magnet is 143.25 today.  Yesterday it was 143.35.

[SF Monedge]

Cycle parameters adjusted to 144.15 soon after initial parameters noted earlier and so UsdJpy is in sell mode from there in tandem with DX.

[GVI Forex 2]

CME Fed Watch 62/38 for a 50bps rate cut (vs 56/44 earlier)… USD weaker but be aware with about 6 weeks to go before the next meeting, this indicator can be erratic.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 5 MINUTE CHART – WHY I LOVE THE AMAZING TRADER

Look at the bounce off AT support at 1.11918… this is no coincidence…why it is called “Amazing”… same support on a 15 minute chart

[SF Monedge]

Dow futures 42555 is your make or break point for the intraday cycle.  Currently 42575.

[SF Monedge]

I am expecting DX to hit 100.25 today.  Let the games begin.

[GVI Forex 2]

As I have said many times, the forex market lives to run stops… EURUSD stops run above 1.12, then quick retreat

[SF Monedge]

Case in point on market internals – Yields opened up strongly moments ago but immediately began pulling back which carried over to UsdJpy seeing a sudden, albeit small shot downhill.  I would pay attention to those internals today, which are mixed with a slight tint to the downside in the pair.  Again, however, the geopolitical element today should have stocks apprehensive and buoy USD unless it becomes dramatic and we see safe haven flows into CHF and such.

[SF Monedge]

 

UsdJpy remains dominant on the buy side until 143.95 is compromised definitively.  Why not just 143?  This time, only this time, my cycle oriented system simply has that number this time.  It is not stagnant.  Entering the US day stock markets are apprehensive with the geopolitical turmoil and rightfully so.  What could change that?  Either some significant development or global markets simply revisiting the rate reduction effect in my view.  Right now some components behind the scenes are negative Dollar so entirely possible. Yesterday they were decidedly positive but there was a delay in those orders filling through the market, which caused UsdJpy to run uphill overnight.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 4 HOUR CHART

Here is another source of EURUSD buying and USDJPY demand as you can see by the rising red AT lines.

It could be a combination of shorts being squared up and the end of the carry trade sell off.

Whatever the case, key resistance is at 162.80

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Resistances : 1.12050 , 1.12350 & 1.13100

Supports : 1.11750 , 1.11450 & 1.11150

Close of this bar above 1.11850 would call for another leg Up

Close below 1.11750 – more of supports testing.

Direction is Up

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.1201 is also the high for the year… o far EURGBP (.8368) along with EURJPY are helping to keep a bid.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

The unexpected downturn in U.S. household confidence this month and growing anxiety about jobs has spurred aggressive interest rate cut bets anew – dragging Treasury yields, the dollar and stock futures lower into Wednesday’s open.

Morning Bid: US confidence wobble weighs, China buoyed

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART

Let’s take a look at what technical traders are looking at.

Last week was an outside week and close to an outside week key reversal although I was told many years ago that it doesn’t work well with currencies.

I just took a look at a broker’s sentiment and it shows 50% of trader positions are short USDJPY.

So, looking at the COT report as well, short USDJPY positions no longer look extended so it might take a move outside of 140-145 to expose key levels.

In any case, this can still be considered a retracement phase with FIBOS for 161.93-139.58 shown below

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – BOUNCE FROM MULTI-YEAR LOW

If trading EURUSD and GBPUSD, it pays to keep an eye on EURGBP, which is firmer today… weighing on GBPUSD while EURUSD follows with a lag

This follows a bounce from ,8317, lowest level since early 2022.

Supports: .8339, .8317

Resistance: .8389 (this week’s high)

[GVI Forex 2]

Early observations

USDJPY trading back above 144 but below yesterday’s 144.68 high

EURUSD failed to test 1.1201 but lagging GBPUSD

GBPUSD failed to hold new high above 1.34, firmer EURGBP appears to be a factor

AUDUSD went through its .6899 target and now back below it

[GVI Forex 2]

Since Fed rate cut expectation had an influence yesterday, let’s take a look what the CME Fedwatch is showing today…

58/42 for a 50 bps rate cur vs. 62/38 late yesterday

[GVI Forex 2]

I have been scanning the news looking for reasons for the bounce in USDJPY back to 144

I have so far come up empty but this caught my eye

The COT (futures) report showed a huge drop in long positions, which explains some of the recent USDJPY support

Open interest fell -47%, fastest weekly pace on record

177k contracts closed

Open interest at 376.5k contracts in the prior week was its second highest level on record

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is a weekly market report that summarizes the holdings of participants in the US futures market. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes the report every Friday at 3:30 PM Eastern Time, and it covers the previous Tuesday’s trading day.

(AI Overview)

[GVI Forex 2]

I have been scanning the news looking for reasons for the bounce in USDJPY back to 144

I have so far come up empty but this caught my eye

The COT (futures) report showed a huge drop in long positions, which explains some of USSDJPY support

Open interest fell -47%, fastest weekly pace on record

The -177k contracts closed

Open interest at 376.5k contracts in the prior week prior was its second highest level on record

[GVI Forex 2]

The forex market is largely controlled by interest rates. In fact, the interest rate is generally the single most important factor when it comes to determining the value of that specific currency. Investors will constantly look at how the interest rate on one currency compares to another, and they will use this information to take action in the markets.

Interest Rates and Why they Matter to Forex Traders

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets trade on interest rate expectations… looking at how they have shifted after the weaker Consumer Confidence report from 50/50 to 62/38 in favor of a 50bps rate cut at the Nov FOMC, it explains today’s (weaker USD) price moves

CME Fed Watch (62/38)

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY CHART – 20k ON THE RADAR?

Weaker US data => lower yields => weaker USD => higher NAS100

Chart is clear, firm break of 19372 i needed to make a run at 20K with major levels above it.

On the downside, expect support on dips while red support lines hold.

[SF Monedge]

UsdJpy began a buy cycle last Thursday which changed to a near term sell cycle as of the European session last night.  The conviction on the buy side is quite lateral this time around but there is feasibility for the pair to hold around 142.20.

[SF Monedge]

When I mention price/value magnets these are either reoccurring values or range related values of importance to large firms.  You won’t find that with an Macd it comes from experience in banking (Jay of GVI) or as a CTA.  With Yen much of that is import/export related entities, especially in the Asian session.  UsdJpy 143.20 and 142.90 are medium term cycle magnets.  If the latter is definitively compromised then look out below.  If it holds we see likely see 146 in time.

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields edging down…USD correlating

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART – More of the same

I wish I had something new to say other than while within a 60-65k range expect more chop.

The sideways price action since last week suggests more of the same unless 65-66K is taken out, which would open the door for 70K.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Another day, another record high

With another record high day, there is no change to:

When in unchartered record territory, resistance is only a guess so use the latest high as the only level that matters,

Otherwise, look for a strong bid if it stays above 2640, scaled down buy interest as long as it trades above 2600.

To suggest a pause, it would need a day without a new high.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – RESISTANCE?

Note that CFD price feeds can differ between broker, even those using the same symbol. Ss, look at the chart pattern if the levels below do not line up with the prices on your chart.

US500 ran into resistance at yesterday’s record high (5735 on this chart).

As I have said, there is no reason to guess at a top when in record high territory but it pays to keep an eye on the high to see if it holds.

Supports 5697, 5671

Resistance, 5735, ?

[Author]

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