[SF Monedge]

Rode the short all day from early US and hit the bid at 155.00 even, prime t/p is 145.90 to be safe.  The Asian session bias is at equilibrium at 145.25 and non-committal to breaching 145.60 or 144.90 decisively headed into the second half.  Europe should be interesting.

Of interest to me is how democrats/FED are going to explain away the almost 1 million job losses they just confessed to that they hid from plain sight.  Saxo Bank and Goldman just publicly voiced the same interest in an explanation on Bloomberg.

[SF Monedge]

And Kudos to you too JP as always, I almost spit out my tea laughing at a couple of your comments below.  Good to retain a sense of humor and awareness at the same time eh…

[Mtl JP]

SF 12:37 atta boy ! KUDOS
odds are for 146.5+

[SF Monedge]

Good enough on the sell side of UsdJpy.  Fundamentals supported the sell on top of the technicals and the predatory stop running and absolute Bs market movement.  Should see 146+ again in coming days and perhaps by tomorrow unless there is considerable disconnect with established metrics.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, If I told you that there was a large order in the market to buy EUR and sell GBP would you be looking to sell EURUSD and buy GBPUSD, do the opposite or step aside as the order gets executed?

How You Can Use Currency Crosses to Trade Spot Forex

 

[Mtl JP]

HOW WRONG is Justin Lahart ?

Kamala Harris Wants to Ban Price Gouging. What Do Economists Say? The line between gouging and normal market forces can be pretty thin. And stopping it is no easy feat either. – By Justin Lahart in WSJ

Lets see…
Price gouging solves itself when 1) the first gouger runs out of supply and when “me too” opportunists arrive with new supply.

2) price gouging, in its pure certified form, gets solved when the gouger gets either shot by pissed gougee or by govt price-control enforcement forces.

[Mtl JP]

Jay 8:50 / I think I see all I need (including especially sentiment and bias) in my simple (but multi-timeframe) chart charts in their aggregate.

How is that eur-gbp pratico-practically used in real-time trading of the eurdlr?
tia

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – 145!!

Support at 145.18 is this week’s low but 145 is perhaps more important as only 144.03 lies below ahead of the 141.68 low.

No key resistance levels until much higher so use 145.50-80 as an initial band.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD leading (res 1.1135-50) while GBPUSD lagging after early run through stops and then quick retreat?

Why?

Look at a EURGBP chart

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

TRADER ALERT

A downward revision of 1 million jobs would reduce employment creation to 1.6 million jobs for the year, from 2.6 million, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

“That’s why I think that the market is still pricing in about a 25% chance of a 50-basis-point cut in September,” Chandler said. “People thought the Fed was behind the curve in raising rates, and now many people think the Fed is behind the curve in cutting rates.”

Dollar slumps ahead of payrolls revisions, Powell speech

[Mtl JP]

IF n WHEN

EURO hits +/- 3 pip around 1.1140

I d be expecting it to be sudden rapid and not last

[Mtl JP]

Greta … where tfk ARE you ?!

Starbucks’ new CEO will supercommute 1,000 miles from California to Seattle office instead of relocating

[GVI Forex 2]

Here is one of my “rules” when discussing The Amazing Trader.

Don’t guess at a top or bottom until there is a reason (i.e. AT tells you) to do so.

See my earlier post… there was a setup that was never confirmed (EURUSD hekd 1.11)

[Mtl JP]

Jay 4:23 / c my 12:56

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 15 MINUTE CHGART – STOP HUNT

One oif my favorite sayings is…

The forex market lives to run stops.

Look at this GBPUSD chart to see what I mean.

Note the break of 1.3044 tested the “:50” level.

Only back below 1,30 would ease the risk though.

[Mtl JP]

YAKKERS ON DECK
–
01:35 bostic – innovating for inclusion – at the Atlanta Fed’s Payment Inclusion Forum
02:45 barr – on cybersecurity

[Mtl JP]

could be , could be not

ahhh … the fear of getting clobbered and eaten by nigel jubbs
the uncertainty of the strenght and ferociousness of the bulls’ mood of some trying to p!ss on their parade
by trying a short for under 1.11

hahahahahaha

[GVI Forex 2]

Could be that the USD lows are in for today… have to watch charts to see if AT confirms and if EURUSD goes back below 1.11 (last 1.1105).

[SF Monedge]

Yesterday I posted (factually per Reuters) that hundreds of millions of individual social security and sensitive data had been hacked and sold on the black market in the dark web in recent weeks.  Almost a billion actually.  The place to go to see if your data has indeed been hacked and sold is https://npd.pentester.com/.

[GVI Forex 2]

UPDATE: USD EXTENDING LOWS (EXCEPT USDCAD)

EURUSD trying to establish 1.1100+ for a run at 1,1135-60 after downside pause above 1.1092.

USDJPY breaking its overnight 145,84 low, 145.18 was Monday’s low. exposed if break holds. Equities opening a touch lower.

GBPUSD 1.3044 high still looms above

[SF Monedge]

(IF)  UsdJpy is to stall on the sell side today it would be around 145.60, if not then 145.20/30 area and you could hit a home run on a retrace.  The bias is short so it’s a technical risk play.

[GVI Forex 2]

Reuters poll: S&P 500 to end 2024 at 5600 (May poll 5302, currently 5600); sees 5900 be end-2025

Source: Newsquawk.com

[SF Monedge]

I could say something egomaniacal like “Euro is now officially a sell” but that would be an absurdly arrogant means of verbiage.  I wonder how many of them said something almost verbatim this morning in other forums.  When a CTA, I learned to be more realistic and responsible than that with one’s language.

[SF Monedge]

There is zero reason to be long UsdJpy today unless some unusual dominant fundamental or market activity condition suddenly arises.  Eu metrics are dominant on the buy side in some metrics but there is clear positioning in other metrics on outside months which shows sell side interest building so current levels are producing a pivot level as I type.  When this happens usually a sustained shift takes place lasting for one week minimum.

[SF Monedge]

Bloomberg – Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. economists expect the government’s preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday to show payrolls growth in the year through March was at least 600,000 weaker than currently estimated — about 50,000 a month.

Has the FED has become a veiled political arm and not a FED?  Many are more than satisfied that is the case.  Regardless, the hidden figures alters the interest rate outlook and the presents the likelihood they are behind the curve in reducing rates which ultimately will cause highly chaotic economic results for quite some time.

[GVI Forex 2]

I do not know why my charts sometimes change the high/low. Now it is showing 1.1134 on a weekly (was showing 1.1137) but I will always go for the “50” level as a key one to watch..

Brief spike just now through 1.11 sets this as the pivotal level to watch (options level?) as that can often lead to being a top.

Has to hold 1.1092 or risk shifts to 1.1082.

[GVI Forex 2]

I do not know why my charts sometimes change the high/low. Now it is showing 1.1134 on a weekly (was showing 1.1137) but I will always go for the “50” level as a key one to watch..

Spike just now through 1.11 sets this as the pivotal level to watch (options level?)

[Mtl JP]

USD’s slide into the toilet is likely a reflection of player high expectations of upcoming Jerome yikyak on Friday about accommodating (assuaging?) them with a signal of sept Fed easing. The one element that may be in for some correcting is whether what-ever easing maybe gifted upon the market is a start of a process.

The degree of perception of any Powell dovishness will likely determine how much more the DLR will weaken or not.
Market is a bit too giddy about Fed’s easing expectations.

[Mtl JP]

fwiw euro 1.1150
= late dec ’23 high

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1095

bull run looks solid odds are for 1.1150 tag BUT

technically a some indicators looks stretched so a corection can not be ruled out as a surprise

bostic and barr yak later today

[Author]

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