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EURUSD 4h
Supports : 1.09050 , 1.08850 & 1.08650
Resistance : 1.09250 , 1.09350 & 1.09600
Last 24h EURUSD is biding its time in some kind of a sideways correction.
Needs to go above 1.09350 to renew the pressure to Up.
Pattern wise – it is in the middle of nowhere…
Time wise – it should move in next 2 h.
USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – testing support
As noted, commodity currencies benefiting from a bounce in risk and end, for now, to the carry trade unwind.
As this chart shows, USDCAD has layers of support (tested 1.3743) but is on the defensive as long as it trades below 1.3787/90/1.38
If it trades 1,37-1.38, then keep an eye on 1.3750 to set its tone.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – 150?
The old trading adage that what matters is the reaction to news more than the news itself was evident today in the reaction to the BOJ Deputy Governor’s comments (scroll below). It is a form of verbal intervention without even having to mention the currency market.
Scoll below for FIBO levels.
On the upside, 148 is one of those pivotal levels, high today 147.89. Above 148 would put 150 back on the radar.
On the downside, expect support as long as it trades above 146.35
Note, whenever you see a sharp move in USDJPY, look at other currencies as there is usually an offset (see prior post)
AUDJJPY 4 HOUR CHART – On the rebound
As I have been noting, with JPY carry trade unwinds appearing to be over for now and the deck cleared of JPY buy stops, the mood in markets has changed.
This has seen JPY give back some ground, especially vs. the commodity currencies.,
This has lifted AUDUSD as AUDJPY recovers although NZDJPY is the outperformer today.
As this chart shows, key level is not until 98.72, a break would confirm the low is in.
In any case, expect support on dips as long as above 95.49
One of my favorite articles I wrote as a warning to all traders is entitled, The Market Isn’t Your Enemy and it is worth repeating in the current market.
I posted this (see below) several years ago to go along with the article and if it was today, I would not be surprised to see traders trying to fight the current trend the other way and sell the JPY with similar results. This is an article that has stood the test of time.
AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Focus on ,6500
Same levels on this chart posted yesterday with .6547-59 the key area needing to be broken to confirm the low is in.
AUDUSD came close but paused below it as a late day swoon in US stocks took away some of the risk on mood.
In any case, .6500 is one of those pivotal levels that will dictate whether this rebound has legs.
NOTE, .6500 HAS TRADED 5 DAYS IN A ROW. LOOK FOR THE RISK OF A DIRECTIONAL MOVE ONCE THIS PATTERN IS BROKEN.
S&P500 – SPX
Indexes end with strong gains, rebounding from global market rout
Uber jumps after Q2 revenue beatCaterpillar rises after Q2 profit beat
All major S&P 500 sectors also rose sharply.
U.S. central bank policymakers pushed back against the idea that weaker-than-expected July jobs data means the economy is headed for a recession, but they also warned that the Fed will need to cut interest rates to avoid such an outcome.
Nvidia NVDA gave the biggest boost to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Nvidia – NVDA
Nvidia’s Unexpected 35% Stock Plunge Amid Chip Delay Could Set The Stage For A Surprising Turn In Stock Performance
Nvidia has postponed the launch of its new AI chip, the Blackwell B200, due to a design flaw.The delay impacts major cloud service providers like Microsoft, Google, and Meta.
Nvidia’s stock has experienced volatility, dropping 35% from a June 2024 high of $140 to $90 in August.
Nasdaq 100 – NDX
Nasdaq jump 2% after dramatic sell-off
Traders are pricing in a 75% chance the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points at its next policy meeting in September, and a 25% chance of a 25 basis point reduction. A 50 basis point cut was fully priced in on Monday, with a 75 basis point cut also seen possible.
USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – 1.38
While there are layers of (red line) support below the market, the spike high and quick retreat has wiped the deck of buy stops.
As this chart shows, 1.3787 is a key support but as noted, there are layers of (red line) support below it.
In any case, 1,38 will set its tone.
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