[SF Monedge]

GVI – at 1:34 pm … I was active in Asia last night and the activity was completely predatory with zero logic other than a battle being waged with big money sources.  I have 143.20 as a make/break magnet area and if/when compromised would likely lead to 146.20 being seen.  Just my view.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY extending high through 141.40-50… price action suggest real money buying (or selling JPY on its crosses0… I can/t imagine a fund dipping it toes into a carry trade again but would not rule it out

[Mtl JP]

yeah ! …”As anyone trading also knows, markets move when there is a surprise in a news event vs. the consensus forecast.”

IF you look at the Swaps pricing for wednesday u d see that playrs are leaning towards a bigger cut. but u would also notices that it is a wishi-washi conviction.

Bottom line is that
– some will get smashed on wednesday which will likely manifest itself by displays of volatility.

[Mtl JP]

10:00nyt – logan yaks

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Time for a pause?

What caught my attention in USDJPY has been

1) The bounce from sub-140 and then staying above it… deck wiped of sell stops on the break below 140.00-20

2) Typically USDJPY is most sensitive to US interest rates but it has not reacted to the fall in bond yields.

Price action suggests a pause for now but would need to get above 141.40-50, then 142+ to put 143.04 in play and make a case that the low is in for now.

[GVI Forex 2]

Posted here earlier… NOTE the post-data low was dead on at 1.1115 (This is another reason we call it The Amazing Trader)-

Posted earlier

On the downside, it keeps a bid as long as it stays above 1.11 with a stronger bid as long as 1.1115 holds as support

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – CPI bounce

Key resistance is at 1.3623, above which there is a void of key levels until 1.3738… catalyst for the bounce wa softer CPI

Support is still at 1,3580 but probably needs to stay above 1.36 to keep a stronger bid

[GVI Forex 2]

CDA CPI softer… see link to our Economic Calendar below… raises risk of a 50nps rate cut at next meeting…

[GVI Forex 2]

US Retail sales due up next… High impact report. CDA CPI due as well.

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

As any trader knows, it is the reaction to news (e.g. economic reports, monetary policy decisions0 that counts. This is where the saying Buy the rumor, sell the fact comes from. It also reminds me of the old trading adage, It is the reaction to news, more than the news itself that matters.

As anyone trading also knows, markets move when there is a surprise in a news event vs. the consensus forecast. In the current week, there is a full calendar where the focus will be on central bank monetary decisions from the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.

So, let’s take a look at what might produce a surprise.

Will There Be a Forex Trading Surprise This Week?

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD 4h

Supports : 1.32100 , 1.31950 & 1.31750

Resistances : 1.32300 , 1.32400 & 1.32650

Watch this bar – in 2h will close : if Above 1.32150 is Bullish, if Below 1.32050 – Not good.

If Cable wants to continue in Up trend, needs to overcome today 1.32650.

[GVI Forex 2]

Current CNE Fed Watch for the Sept 17-18 FOMC Meeting

[GVI Forex 2]

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

With Federal Reserve easing within touching distance, U.S. stocks are not hanging about, underlining an uncomfortable aspect of the central bank’s decision this week.

Amid a fresh rotation of sectors from megacaps to small fry, the equal-weighted S&P500, which adjusts the main index to strip away the overwhelming influence of a handful of outsize stocks, hit a record high…

Morning Bid: New highs, rotation as Fed meets with retail healthcheck

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – TAKING A BREATHER

XAUUSD has taken a pause below 2600 after setting a new record high at 2589, which now becomes key resistance.

Given the sharp move up, let’s take a look at retracement levels as potential levels of support (see our Fibonacci Calculator)

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – BACK ABOVE 1.11

The shift in money market pricing in favor of a 50bpS Fed rate cut tomorrow is giving EURUSD support although it faces resistance at 1.1155 and 1.1190 ahead of the key recent 1,1201 high.

On the downside, it keeps a bid as long as it stays above 1.11 with a stronger bid as long as 1.1115 holds as support

Next event risk: US Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Back above 1.32

GBPUSD is closer to its recent high (1.3266) than a slightly lagging EURUSD (1.1201) as reflected in a softer EURGBP.

Resistance 1.3238, 1.3266

Support i.3200 (keeps a bid while above it), 1.3187, 1,3150

[GVI Forex 2]

Money market pricing for a 50bps rate cut climbed to 67% on Tuesday vs. 50% to end last week and 30% a week ago.

[Mtl JP]

DLRYEN 140.45

ass-u-me ing that the FED cuts 50 OFF the dlr yield , what are the odds that BoJ HIKES on Friday ?

general rule in japan is not so much about some price point as it is about the speed of exchange rate change.

[Mtl JP]

SF 10:54 in the st me be happy closing the GAP on the DLRx

 

[GVI Forex 2]

As we wait for the Fed to make its widely anticipated interest rate decision, this is one that could go either way. The debate is not whether the Fed will cut rates but by how much.

Will the Fed Cut Rates by 25 or 50 bps.?

[SF Monedge]

JP imo if they do .50 all heck will break loose and not in a good way.

[Mtl JP]

50bps rate cut
–
I already posted links to last week’s pro-big cut yakkings by the FT and wsj’s timiraos

and more today by Greg Ip

Interest Rates Are Too High. The Fed Should Cut by a Half Point. With rates so far from ‘neutral’ and the labor market cooling, it’s better to start big

take it fwiw, BUT probably more importantly: how will the market react

[Mtl JP]

50bps rate cut
–
I already posted links to last week’s pro-big cut yakkings by the FT and wsj’s timiraos

So here is more screaming:
from never-trumper Dudley

An Opinion: The Fed Should Go Big Now. I Think It Will. An aggressive 50-basis-point reduction in interest rates makes sense.

[Mtl JP]

ding ding ding ding (small caps for “low tone)

DLRx not going down and only ever so gently sneaking up …

like a puma in the sahara eaballing an addax

[Mtl JP]

GAP – Dlrx 100.36

when the GAP will close, it will not be good or better.
It will close superbly marvelously and terrifically

[Mtl JP]

brainard … remember her ?

National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard speaks at a press briefing
Mon, September 16, 2024 at 12:40 p.m. EDT
(Reuters) – Top White House economic adviser Lael Brainard on Monday declared that the U.S. economy had turned the corner in bringing down inflation and it was now time to focus on safeguarding recent progress in the labor market.

“Today, we are at an important turning point. Inflation is coming back down close to normal levels, and it is important to safeguard the important labor market progress we have made,” Brainard

[GVI Forex 2]

FWIW USDJPY high was 140.91 vs. 141.00 resistance.

US yields are at the lows for the day (10-year 3.629%)

Stocks mixed, Nasdaq is lower.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY extending it’s rebound from sub-140 (was there a hidden hand?)… charts show a resistance at 141.00 and 141.40

[SF Monedge]

Just a quick comment on a present condition.  EU productivity has grown on average only 0.7% a year since 2015.  I spoke with a CTA in the 1990’s about the EU and he did not believe it would survive in the long run in part because the major sovereigns were acting like dominant powers and camouflaging it.  Draghi has a viable plan but the framework and agendas of the dominant powers are too fragmented and power hungry for it to take root.  I do not feel this is a “European thing” as much as it is human nature.

The EU is facing that moment when the façade requires major structural adjustment or it will fail in time.  They need to re-write the contracts to save themselves.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPJPY 4 HOUR CHART – DOUBLE BOTTOM

Is the double bottom the low or just a pause?

The jury is out but at a minimum it suggests a pause.

[Author]

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