[GVI Forex 2]

While past performance is no guarantee f future results, I pay attention to Michael’s calls on the EURO

August 14, 2024 at 1:54 pm
michael Calif

time to Sell EURUSD; USD futures have bottomed :gtwo3

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.1020
anxiety pricepoint for those who went long here earlier

[GVI Forex 2]

Power of 50: EURUSD high paused below 1.1050 (high 1.1047)

[Mtl JP]

IF euro 1.1025 breaks
odds are for 1.10

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1027/25 s/t Sup

[Mtl JP]

the average investor
vs the top dog investor vs numnuts

then there is the legendary Nigel Jubbs,
with power to instill fear in any class of not investor but gamers including bank prop desk operators
only because do not invest and all they try to do is skin moola in a pure effort for one-way insta-benefit.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1039
–
looks like euro has seen its (double) top today

gunsligger time

[SF Monedge]

For the average investor the big question every day is “just shut up and tell me to buy or sell.”  For portfolio managers at Goldman Sachs the question of the day is “where are we in our positioning with relation to our ongoing allocations and Volume Weighted Average Valuations and are we at valuations that warrant further input or further hedging.”  So the net result is the people running billions try to talk to day traders but they have trouble understanding their language, which sounds like Martian to them, and which is based on a lot of understanding.  And so the day traders lose patience and say again, “just shut up and tell me to buy or sell.”

Which is a missed opportunity if you don’t have the patience to listen.

So Mars to Earth – I prefer the sell side on these pull ups today even though it is against the grain, because I am seeing things that point to a gradual shift in overall bias.  In fact, when Dow hit 398.50 that was a decent spot worth consideration.

And I will be buying more UsdJpy any minute now.

[GVI Forex 2]

You need a roadmap to pick out what flows are driving the market… JOY up, CAD up, AUD (and NZD) down

[SF Monedge]

JP- The PM was already impotent, which is the opposite of important, so the reaction has been muted and not conducive to population growth or impactful Prime Minestering.  New era.

[Mtl JP]

anyone care that japan PM goes POOF! ?

[GVI Forex 2]

A major cyberattack has targeted the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) and several other banks, leading to widespread disruptions in the country’s banking system, according to Iran Ibternational

Source: Newsquawk.com

[Mtl JP]

warning: political theme musing
–
DNC 4-day convention start next Monday

harris n walz are officially the Dem’s ticket
still, delegates will cast – ceremoniously I informed – their votes for harris n walz

I am also told that everyone of the speakers’ list will be happy and excited
including joe who is slated to yak first (on monday, hahaha, everyone knows the importance of the order in which yakkers yak)

kamala is apparently slated to yak last and gracefully accept her nomination.

I am being informed (by msnbc’s morning joe) that a repeat of 1968 convention has a 0% chance

[SF Monedge]

Yen futures have a bundle of mid-size orders (you won’t see it with your broker but I can) about 20pips higher than current market.

[michael Calif]

time to Sell EURUSD; USD futures have bottomed    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, good alert

EURUSD WEEKLY –  200 WEEK MVA IS AROUND 1.1070

 

[Mtl JP]

me bad … not 200dma
200 week ma

[SF Monedge]

What is transpiring is the primary market participants are pricing in reduced US rates as of September, with many supportive events or conditions being amplified in scope and/or duration with respect to price activity.  The opposite applies for many counter pricing developments.  This will dissipate gradually as September nears.  Interest rate differentials will still exist.  It would take profoundly strong conditions to drop US dollar aggressively from here to the point of altering Index parameters (101).

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.1037
bulls on coke
–
letsee priceaction around 200dma

[SF Monedge]

Just a note the volume of participation in some Eu related instruments is quite low at the moment interestingly.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD, in its role as the anti-dollar, sets the overall tone by how it trades vs. 1.10

[GVI Forex 2]

Some buy the rumor sell the fact reaction but little change in rate cut expectations.

[Mtl JP]

DOLLAR going the way of a morning soft turd
as players are feeding off each other betting that this morn’s 8:30 CPI will prove as further confidence builder to the FED rate cut.

I am not posting the various concesus numbers

I am biased. I think the current risk is that players have gotten ahead of themselves.
For reference: eurdlr 1.1025 as I type

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets
 
 
Feeding off impressive disinflation and a growing list of central bank interest rate cuts around the world, global stocks and bonds are rallying anew – with today’s U.S. consumer price update set to clear the deck for Fed easing next month.

US clears inflation decks, NZ cut surprises

[GVI Forex 2]

US CPI

If UK CPI is a guide, headline was up but core slipped. Markets reacted to the core.

See consensus forecasts in our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

Sept BOE rate cut risk is back on the table after UK CPI

Japan PM resigned

RBNZ surprised with a 25bp rate cut

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART – Tug-of War

.8580 is a pivotal area with the key .8625 high exposed if trading above it

Catalyst today was UK CPI

Note, when two currencies trade in opposite directions vs the USD, like a tug-of-war, it is a sign of real money cross flows driving it.

Market is having more trouble absorbing the EUR buying.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Let the Lines speak for themselves…..

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD WEEKLY CHART – ONLY ONE LEVEL MATTERS

What have you done for me lately?

This came to mind this morning after I nailed the direction and support yesterday (1.0945-50).

Looking across all currencies, the NZD is the big loser (-1.1%) while EURUSD is the outperformer, up while GBP and JPY are down vs. the dollar, providing demand for EUR out of its crosses.

EURUSD

The only level that matters is 1.10 as it just broke its 1.1008 daily resistance with key levels beyond it shown on this chart. I the absence of key nearby levels, 1.1020-50 is a potential resistance zone.

The support zone is 1.0980-00 and 1.0945-50/

Next key focus is on US CPI… tone will be set by 1.10 post-data

[Mtl JP]

TG If you are trading off some fundamental such as “not until the shooting starts from Iran” ….

Biden: Iran expected to push off attacking Israel if Gaza ceasefire deal clinched – timesofisrael

Iran officials suggest planned retaliation may be scrapped if Gaza ceasefire reached – timesofisrael

You just may have to wait some … and ignore David Ignatius in WaPO claim that “America anxiously awaits Iran’s threatened reprisal”

[Author]

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