[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHARTT – REcORD HIGH LOOMS ABOVE

I could have included XAUUSD 2500 as one of those pivotal levels.

Levels:

2543 (record high)

2508 (minor but support while above it)

2500 (key bias setter going forward)

2472 (retracement low0

[GVI Forex 2]

I don’t remember a time when all the key currencies were focused on pivotal levels, which will dictate respective tones going forward.

(EURUSD 1.12, USDJPY 145, GBPUSD 1.32, USDCAD 1.35, AUDUSD .68)

See our

Weekly FX Charts Update

 

[GVI Forex 2]

UK markets  are closed today for the Summer Bank Holiday.

[GVI Forex 2]

UK markets  are closed Monday for the Summer Bank Holiday.

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

German CPI flashes on Thursday aren’t expected to show much improvement unlike Eurozone flashes on Friday where forecasters see the headline slowing to 2.3 from 2.6 percent with the HICP reading, however, only seen slowing to 2.8 from 2.9percent. Australian monthly CPI on Wednesday is expected to cool to 3.4 from 3.8 percent in a report that will help set expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next move.

US durable goods orders on Monday are expected to recover only a portion of June’s sharp decline on aircraft cancellations. US consumer confidence on Tuesday is expected to remain depressed while PCE price indexes on Friday, part of the personal income and outlays report, are expected to show modest pressure on the month (up 0.2 percent) and no more than moderate pressure on the year (up 2.6 percent).

GDPs from India and Canada are both on Friday, with the former expected to slow to 6.9 from 7.8 percent year-over-year growth and the latter expected to slow to monthly growth of 0.1 from 0.2 percent.

Econoday

[SF Monedge]

Please allow me.  There are many Youtube videos referring to Quant alalysis which are quite poignant.  But they have never been the interviewer on the other side of the equation.  I ran firms, I am the one who interviews you.  I believe that sums it up.  The ball is in your court.

[SF Monedge]

I found the comments from Michael interesting due to, in part, that I am and remain a verifiable Quant.  Not Youtube Quant but real Quant.  A Quant who has actually run an investment firm and had coffee over a chair in multiple cities by invite, all paid for.  It is how this CTA approaches markets.  That said, After careful analysis I believe that person is almost absolute in analysis.

Very simply, if you take a breath and look at the math “vibration” there is a median in markets which will be met 100% of the time.  What matters as an active trader is your timing within the timing.  That is difficult.

For example, anyone can say that Euro will hit Ysquared in time.  That would be theoretically correct regardless of indicator.  The variables is what causes discount in equations, factors that cannot replace real time motion.

And so, you must factor such variations.  Which is why such things as standard deviations of 3.0% and 3.5% matter more than the usual 2/0% deviations that you hear about on any given form of media, including the more popular formats.

After back testing and real time performance, the back testing is garbage in real world scenarios when you are on the phone with a major broker.  They can tell if you are a skilled linguist or for real.

I concur with  the mention of vibration in markets.  I have a deep past with calculations that lives depend on, and so there is no room for variance.

I felt it important to acknowledge that prior to making a call for the end of week price level in various currencies.  My hit rate is 98.6%.

How you approach it is what matters based on how you attack markets and your existing tolerance levels.

[michael Calif]

that same law of vibration projects lower Euro and Yen futures prices beginning anytime this week    :gtwo3

[michael Calif]

oddly enough  …  per the law of vibration, 10yr rates have bottomed for now and should move higher    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Since calling the top in USDJPY AT 160-162, I have been posting updates from one of Global-View’s long time and highly respected members who I nicknamed the “Savvy Trader.”

Scroll below and you will see highlights from and links to blog posts with updates from the Savvy Trader.

Scroll to the bottom and you will see his latest USDJPY update and trading strategy.

A New USDJPY Update From the Savvy Trader

 

[SF Monedge]

If were running a portfolio I would be thinking about tempering risk … CEO chat speak in plain language … It will be a little choppy next week, be on your toes

[Mtl JP]

Market Research ?
–
fwiw Markets are now wondering whether the Fed might cut by half a point in September – Jeff Cox

——-

Fed Chair Powell indicates interest rate cuts ahead: ‘The time has come for policy to adjust’
Jeff Cox

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead 26th – 28th August

Newsquawk.com Week Ahead 26th-30th August 2024: Highlights include US PCE, UoM, Global CPI’s, and NVDA earnings

[Mtl JP]

Summers says
(Bloomberg) Fed Recovered From Egregious Inflation Mistake
• Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says the Fed has redeemed itself.
• He told Bloomberg TV the central bank’s post-COVID policy was an “egregious” mistake.
• But the Fed appears to have avoided his worst-case recession predictions, he said.
Future jobs prints could sway this. For instance, if unemployment or nonfarm payroll data worsens, analysts have argued that a deeper cut could be worthwhile.

Yeah ! …. And start a TREND

I hope that if as I expect vp harris is elected president that the broad economic strategy is going to one that is all about opportunity

[Mtl JP]

Goolsbee says
(Reuters) – Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Friday that while he’s not ready to explicitly call for a central bank rate cut, monetary policy is quite tight and is no longer aligned with current economic conditions.

[Mtl JP]

bostic’s yakkings ;
“recession is not in my book”

there is an easy fix for that raphael: change books
the one you currently have is out-dated

[SF Monedge]

Working on an hour later and the low is 100.60 (2 ticks away from 100.62).  I can be pretty accurate with Quant application in markets.

[SF Monedge]

There is a very moderate probability of DX holding at precisely 100.62 according to quant calculation.

[SF Monedge]

JP – 5:51  You remind me of the great electric violinist from Canada JeanLuc Ponti.

[Mtl JP]

the reason I like a trade around the figure because of the low cost risk
one will know fairly quickly and at low cost if they wrong
just a matter of outlasting jubbs playing “nerves” for violin

[Mtl JP]

1.1197 I smell nigel jubbs

[Mtl JP]

1.1195 euro puppy revisiting previous high

IF it holds – i.e. does not bust out N,
it have made a 2 top and head back S to collect some pips

so now it is a matter of game of nerves

[michael Calif]

Euro futures rally from Oct. 2022 remains a dead cat bounce when viewed from the 2oo8 High    :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

CBOE S/P 100 options are actually still in a sell bias overall and should likely see 2670 area before any decent probabilities are present to warrant entertaining the buy side.  (I also employ a very “neural network” approach)

[SF Monedge]

I employ a largely quant based approach to markets as opposed to use of lines, averages and/or indicators.  If certain properties are stable in UsdJpy looking into next week there is likelihood we see 143.20 or so, which is an area I may consider operating on a dominantly buy side basis again.

Caveat – There is none.  I am smoking hot.

Greatest risk – Look no further than Kamala Harris and the rest of them.

[GVI Forex 2]

I have mentioned this before – beware of one-way Fridays once the dust settles.

This is setting up as one of those days, meaning USD offers lying in wait.

Pivotal levels to watch in all key currencies

EURUSD 1.12
GBPUSD 1.32
USDCAD 1.35
USDJPY 145
AUDUSD .68

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD above 1.32 is at highest level since March 2022

Stay alert BOE Gov Bailey to speak.

[GVI Forex 2]

Sept 6 NFP is 2 weeks away and that is the key event.. so far risk on with stocks happy

If you want a USD bias indicator, use EURUSD 1.1150 intra-day

Watch US stocks for risk mood

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.1150
so in my op he has had it both ways, not overly out-doving himself and introdused still and yet again an element of prudenece ,,, sensitive to incooming data.

ie start pricing next NFP

[SF Monedge]

I have been voicing for days my preference for the buy side of US Dollar which some people very understandably felt was not a good idea.  I have been on fire on the long side of UsdJpy.  I win this time again.

I was short the pair just prior to Powell opening his mouth with DX hitting 101.50 and hit big again.  But my position on the pair further out has not changed.  Still prefer the buy side overall.

Due in part to major banks ranging in recession projections from between 15% to as high as 35%, if they are correct then if there is a recession it should not be expected to be dramatic barring the occurrence of dramatic scenarios.

The hyperbolic sentiments of 50 to 100bps cuts is ridiculous one might think.  Hyperbolic statements create liquidity.

The smile curve in USD is right in the middle at present and so there is plenty of room for risk appetite or doom and gloom since the Dollar appreciates in either scenario.

After all the con-artistry, lies and false claims in the Democratic National Convention and the false figures one thing must be paid attention to  –_–

EMPLOYMENT

One has to wonder if these facts surface from Powell today:

The last three BLS quarterly job data revisions:

Minus 612,000

Minus 735,000

Minus 915,000 (actual is more than 818k reported).

Net Job Losses:

Two Million Two Hundred Sixty Two Thousand

 

·        The hire to job openings ratio between 2018-2020 was 0.85 on average.

·        The ratio has since fallen to its current rate of roughly 0.35, which is a 500% decrease.

·        This equates to hirings having fallen from 8 hires per 10 job postings to 4 out of 10.

For consideration regarding real economics according to the respected source Resume Builder:

1.        4 out of 10 jobs posted in the US in 2024 were “fake.”

2.        3 out of every 10 jobs in 2024 had roles that were not “real.”

[Author]

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