[Mtl JP]

again … euro 1.0951

another moment of magical level’s anxiety

[Mtl JP]

“key data this week”

—

Well … “Putin’s Top Defense Officials Are In Tehran Amid Countdown To Zero Hour

And US CENTCOM chief is in Tel Aviv” … – zh

So here is the known known :   they are talking
And the known unknown:  we don’t know how belligerent their talk is.

So as long as they are only talking there is little opp for profit from geopolitical risk

I have alerts on gold and crude.

[SF Monedge]

You could see this coming a quarter ago with the variance in commodities vs stocks and the politicization of the FED resulting in questionable management/mis-management of rates.

The prior Asian session saw the worst drawdown in Asian stocks since the Fukushima nuclear facility meltdown in 2011.  Asian stocks have seen the worst 3 day route on record.

Earlier in the year, corn dropped to the lowest price levels since 1974.  Commodities have been showing disconnect with some imaginary gold medal economic performance touted by politicians.  The reality is something very different.

There has also been Natural Gas only recently saw record high levels of gas for power generation in the US, which was politically hamstrung the prior 3 years to nearly zero output growth in various respects.  Natural Gas production dropped to the lowest levels since 1990.  Demand only moderately declined and will increase as will price.  The lack of production became a genuine national security weakness of substantial weight until now.  As were oil leasing permits.  There is a considerable difference between leases and actual permits.

Gold rose in contrast to other commodities due to geopolitical structural malaise.  Basically, the people in charge are a mess and so are their cheerleaders.

US Rates should have seen a .25 reduction 2 meetings ago.

I see the S/P 500 possibly declining 200-300 hundred points further before stabilizing.  The only real rotation in stocks has been to MSCI emerging and Russel type low cap stocks in the search for growth.

That equates to more risk off environment overall for a bit further.

1.       There will be no emergency rate cut.

2.      There will be no .50 rate cut.

3.      There will be a .25 rate cut in September.

4.      There will be no rate hike.

Performance Grade on current political and finance officials:   D.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY performing as suggested…143.97 break => 144.89 => 144.09 as US stocks back off but still above 143,97

[Mtl JP]

If memery serves me right there was , or should have been, a discussion about setting the most optimal Stop/Loss

[Mtl JP]

jay’s moment of “magic” approaching

EURO 1.0950
THE MOMENT OF ANXIETY, for maybe the first 10 minutes or getting stopped, whicheve comes first

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 30 MINUTE –EASING PRESSURE

 

QUICK SUMMARY –

SEE MY EARLIER POST ABOUT 142 AND 141.68 BEING A GOOD SUPPORT

ISM SERVCIE3S PMI THREW STOCKS A LIFELINE’

THIS WAS FORESHADOWED BY A BOUNCE IN COMMODTY CURRENCIES (SEE MY POST)

CHART:

WATCH 143.97 (SUGGESTS 144.00), IF ABOVE FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO 145.

[Mtl JP]

yes ! YES !!

cnbc squawk box:

“Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says if economy deteriorates, Fed will ‘fix it’
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee spoke Monday morning on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

[GVI Forex 2]

That’s it for key US data this week…

Key political events:

Harris picks a VP

Geopolitical risk

Iran retaliation vs Israel

[Mtl JP]

AB hk – animal spirits awoken
dog eat dog

FED would be making a grave mistake to heed jeremy siegel

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM Services beats on upside…

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

Commodity currencies bouncing (AUD and NZD joining CAD)… see if it is a leading sign for stocks

[GVI Forex 2]

Bobby, Hidden hand = BoJ

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

That lowest trend line – a bit of Thumb analysis –  width of the channel….

It was there before all this happened…

As for a “Hidden hand” Jay, how about BoJ ….they don’t like any extremes….screwing up with their economy big time.

Every single Japanese product is about 15% more expensive compared to 15 days ago…

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD tests 1.10.. repelled on first test

Is there a hidden hand supporting USDJPY below 142?

Stocks bouncing after S&P reached 10% correction – Plunge Protection Team?

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Weekly

After this sharp move Up, had to check it out on Weekly…

Supports : 1.09600 , 1.09250 & 1.08500

Resistances : 1.10950 , 1.11500 & 1.12750

Target ( within weeks ) at 1.13500

[Ab hk]

JP//Simply fear and greed.

[Mtl JP]

AB about your =128 this week

think the toyotas and hondas of the world would be able to adjust to such a massive n rapid ccy move ?

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD WEEKLY CHART – PAUSE BELOW MAJOR HIGH

USDCAD reversing after pause below 1.3977

Still just a retracement as key levels are distant.

The move down is consistent with the repatriation argument during times of stress.

A close below 1,3834 would produce an outside day key reversal (questionable how well it works in FX). but 1.38 is likely most important in keeping the bid.

[Ab hk]

seems truth unveils……

When will bitcoin at 20000? When a lot are yelling for 150K?

[Mtl JP]

YES or NO
———
Earlier Dudley was screaming that his hair caught fire (in reaction to Sahm indicator)

Now ….” as speculation about hurried and dramatic interest rate cuts mounts”

more moRE MORE screamers:
Leading economist issues dire warning about the US economy
A leading economist has issued a dire warning about the US economy – tearing into the Federal Reserve for a ‘policy blunder’ that could send the country into recession. Mohamed El-Erian (Pictured), the chief economic advisor at Allianz, said on Sunday he fears the economy may be spiraling following a dismal unemployment report last week.

Wharton’s Jeremey Siegel on Monday called on the Federal Reserve to make an emergency 75 basis points emergency cut in the federal funds rate after Friday’s disappointing jobs report.
In addition, there should be “another 75 basis point cut indicated for next month at the September meeting — and that’s minimum,”

So here is THE bet:
Will the FED gang heed the screamers:
YES
NO

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Inner channel broken .

Supports : 1.27050 , 1.26150 & 1.24050

Resistances : 1.28200, 1.28500/600 & 1.28950

Close tonight below 1.27750 would be a clear signal for more losses in next few days

[GVI Forex 2]

10% correction rule

I believe it is 10% off the record closing high.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Whether the prospect of a U.S. recession is real or imagined, the mere return of the discussion has been enough to send world stocks and bond yields reeling just as AI doubts and a Japan-led volatility spike have barreled into holiday-thinned August.

And like many global selloffs before it, there’s the risk of a self-feeding spiral amid a frantic search for “safe” bonds as speculation about hurried and dramatic interest rate cuts mounts.

Morning Bid: Stocks reel on ‘R-word’ return, Nikkei dives 12%

[GVI Forex 2]

USD500 WEEKLY CHART – 10% CORRECTION LEVEL

With Nasdaq already in correction territory (more than 10% off the record high), an equivalent level in US500 comes in at 5105.

Calling for a bottom in this type of market is like throwing a dart so watch 5200 as one of those pivotal levels as well as 5192, briefly broken so far.’

Chart shows 4923 as next key support, making 5000-52000 a pivotal zone.

[GVI Forex 2]

USD500 WEEKLY CHART – 10% CORRECTION LEVEL

With NAsdaq already in correction territory (more than 10% off the record high), an equivalent level in US500 comes in at 5105.

Calling for a bottom in this type of market is like throwing a dart so watch 5200 as one of those pivotal levels as well as 5192, briefly broken so far.’

Cahrt shows 4923 as next key support, making 5000-52000 a potential area that could cause a pause.

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC WEEKLY CHART – HE BIGGEST LOSER

BTC BRIEF BREAK BELOW 50k SETS THIS AS THE KEY LEVEL.

You can see why ON THIS CHART with a big void of key levels on the downside.

Back above 53435 would be needed to slow the threat.

Why is BTC so weak and not acting as a safe haven?

I can answer that with more questions than answers

Is it unwindibg of JPY carry trades>

Is it a need for liquidity to cover losses/margin calls in other markets?

Is it part of a deleveraging process?

Is it that cryptos are just a house of cards?

Contact me at [email protected] with your thoughts

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC WEEKLY CHART – HE BIGGEST LOSER

 

BTC BRIEF BREAK BELOW 50k SETS THIS AS THE KEY LEVEL.

You can see why ON THIS CHART with a big void of key levels on the downside.

Back above 53435 would be needed to slow the threat.

Why is BTC so weak and not acting as a safe haven?

I can answer that with more questions than answers

Is it unwindibg of JPY carry trades>

Is it a need for liquidity to cover losses/margin calls in other markets?

Is it part of a deleveraging process?

Is it that cryptos are just a house of cards?

Conatc me at [email protected] with your thoughts

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART – WATCH 142

The last time USDJOY traded below 142 was 27 weeks ago enroute to 161.93 and only 5 weeks to trade back below 142.

Why am I focusing on 142?

It is one of those pivotal levels and the last line of defense before 140 comes on the radar.

Support: 141.68 (Monday low), 140.23, 140.00

141.68 showing signs of pretty good support

More important than resistance is how USDJPY trades vs. 142 as that will dictate whether 140 comes under attack.

[Mtl JP]

michael 2:11 – Market Playing Theme: M/E tension vs recession prospects

Grand scheme market is currently fickle playing this-one or that-a-one
arguing (pricing) about dominant theme:
overnite brent is actually down some to 75-ish from 77-ish

[Author]

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