[SF Monedge]

Bobby – Thanks, there is never a day I discount your input.  Of same sentiment actually, it either plays out or I adjust.  Lets see what happens.

On the sell side of AudUsd despite the early strength in the Commodities and related currencies.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Monedge – most of the time I fully agree with you and your ways of trading, but this time I have to warn you – If below 1.37850 USDCAD become very Bearish on mid term

1.35900 comes to play…

[SF Monedge]

I like the buy side of UsdCad under 3800 and eventually Sterling on the next pass down.

[GVI Forex 2]

Nice pop in US stocks, eases pressure on GBP and lifts commodity currencies
‘
USDJPY so far not reacting to risk on.

[Mtl JP]

UPDATING GVI’s
That’s it for key US data this week…

Key political events:

Harris picks a VP ——- pick walz / market zzzzzzz s

Geopolitical risk

Iran retaliation vs Israel

[Belgrade Bobby]

Mtl, you know as well as I do that no messages can turn the market – Show me the money where your mouth is would do the trick….

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports : 1.09050 , 1.08800 & 1.08600

Resistances : 1.09250 , 1.09450 & 1.09650

Pair needs now to overcome 1.09650 once again to Confirm the Bullish bias.

[Mtl JP]

What is WRONG with these people ??
are these folks wanna-be soviet planners ?

The popular ‘carry trade’ is unwinding — and economists fear Fed rate cuts could make matters worse – on cnbc

…”Led by Freya Beamish, economists at the investment strategy research firm said they hoped to see a coordinated message from the Bank of Japan and Fed to soothe market nerves.” …

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 3.819%, ever so slightly uP
DLRx 102.80 marginally uP

DLR has , imo, limited uPside seeing how breathless for a FED (aggressive?) rate cut the market is.

13:00 – janet peddles off 58bln of 3-yr paper

[Mtl JP]

IMMINENT

“President Biden and Vice President Harris were told by their national security team on Monday that it is still unclear when Iran and Hezbollah are likely to launch an attack against Israel and what specifically the attack might entail, three U.S. officials told Axios.”

Oil is off some at 75
GOLD is off some at 2396

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY staying correlated with US stocks

GBP remains a weak link (note EURGBP)

EURUSD lower but on sidelines unless 1.0892 is taken out.

[Mtl JP]

further to “the FED as biggest problem”

blame game by Myles Udland, Head of News at yahoo
…” last week’s market turn had a clear catalyst: the Federal Reserve. this remains the cleanest way to understand why the stock market’s year of smooth sailing has come to an abrupt end. When the Fed held interest rates steady last week, investor reactions suggested the central bank had made a policy mistake by not taking the chance to lower rates before the economy showed signs of weakness.

which , really, is not news but hind-sight rehash of what is now history

probably more useful opinion is JMP’s musing that things carry-trade are only half done

[Mtl JP]

better late than not at all ?
gimme a break !! … by early afternoon

(Bloomberg) — Retail brokerages Charles Schwab Corp. and Fidelity Investments reported outages amid a global stock-market selloff Monday, though both said their issues were resolved by the early afternoon.

More than 15,000 users had reported an outage at Schwab at 9:50 a.m. in New York
“We apologize for the inconvenience,” Schwab

[Mtl JP]

Headlines digest
and, allegedly, “the biggest problem”
–
Reuters Futures recover on positive Fed rate remarks

Japan Officials Strive to Restore Calm After Market Whipsaws
(Bloomberg) — Japan’s government and central bank sought to show a united front and restore calm to financial markets, after blablabla

JPMorgan Says Unraveling of Carry Trade Is Only Half Complete
(Bloomberg) — The recent unwinding in carry trade has more room to run as the yen remains

Stocks still have the same problem after a wild Monday in markets: Morning Brief
The stock market was rocked Monday, but a third straight day of selling pressure didn’t change the biggest problem for investors right now: the Federal Reserve. (hahahahaha, rofl)

(Bloomberg) — Buying US stocks after a slump of the scale witnessed over the past month has usually been profitable, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysis of four decades of data.

Since 1980, the S&P 500 Index has generated a median return of 6% in the three months that followed a 5% decline from a recent high, according to the Goldman strategy team led by David Kostin. The benchmark has slumped 8.5% from its mid-July peak.

“Corrections of 10% have also been attractive buying opportunities more often than not,” although the track record is not as strong as after a smaller drop, Kostin wrote in a note. Returns after a 5% decline have been positive in 84% of episodes, the research shows.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

The speed and scale of Tuesday’s 10% Tokyo bounce after its worst day in 37 years suggests the wild global market swings of the past week are more rooted in speculative churn than economic fright.

Morning Bid: Rollercoaster markets, Nikkei rebounds 10%

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP DAILY CHART TESTED KEY LEVEL

One source of GBP selling has come from this cross which has been on a straight line up before holding .8620 yesterday.

Back below .8540-50 would be needed to suggest a top is in.

[David Shepherd]

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – SUPPORT IS CLEAR

EURUSD in retreat after failing above 1.10 and then failing to hold above 1.0950.

Key support is very clear at 1.0892 as it needs to hold or move up is over.

Back above 1.0950 would be needed to out 1.10 back on the radar.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – UNDERPERFORMER

GBP continues to underperform, with weakness SEEN not only vs. the USD but on its crosses (note firmer EURGBP).

Chart wise, key support is not until 1.2612, the base of the move to 1.3044.

Needs to trade below 1.2700-07 to expose it, so far 1.27 is holding,

On the upside, 1.2800-20 would need to be regained to neutralize the risk

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – RETRACEMENT?

Assuming the big part of the JPY carry trade unwind is over, the market will need to find a fresh catalyst to push USDJPY even lower, especially with the BoJ likely lurking to prevent an avalanche of selling.

In any case, USDJPY is clearly pivotal and will eventually dictate whether there is a serious run at either side of 140-150. Note any correlation with how US stocks are trading.

Using retracements, today’s high bounced off the 23,6% FIBO as shown below.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – RETRACEMENT?

Assuming the big part of the JPY carry trade unwind is over, the market will need to find a fresh catalyst to push USDJPY even lower, especially with the BoJ likely lurking to prevent an avalanche of selling.

In any case, USDJPY is clearly pivotal and will eventually dictate whether there is a serious run at either side of 140-150. Note any correlation with how US stocks are trading.

Using retracements, today’s high bounced off the 23,6% FIBO as shown below.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Nikkei Index

34,675.46 +3,217.04 (10.23%)today

[Mtl JP]

nikkei 225 cujrrently appear to be beneficiary of some “love”

[michael Calif]

there has been a sea change in Yen futures; the market is Long and this was the first of possibly multiple waves higher    :gtwo3

[Mtl JP]

DING DING DING

euro 1.0944

breaking out of its since ny luch range
or trying

[Mtl JP]

amongst the few things the piece speculates about is the suggestion that the carry-trade operators – whoever and however they may be scattered around the spectum of types – is that margined as they are an 11% yen appreciation kills many and seriously injure few more.

revealing ?

[GVI Forex 2]

Summary
U.S. data doesn’t support scale of market meltdown – analysts

Huge carry trade unwind a better explanation

Further pain likely short-term

LONDON, Aug 5 (Reuters) – A meltdown in world equity markets in recent days is more reflective of a wind-down of carry trades used by investors to juice their bets than a hard and fast shift in the U.S. economic outlook, analysts say.

Global market rout has more to do with end of cheap funding than US economy

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Summary
U.S. data doesn’t support scale of market meltdown – analysts

Huge carry trade unwind a better explanation

Further pain likely short-term

LONDON, Aug 5 (Reuters) – A meltdown in world equity markets in recent days is more reflective of a wind-down of carry trades used by investors to juice their bets than a hard and fast shift in the U.S. economic outlook, analysts say.

Global market rout has more to do with end of cheap funding than US economy

 

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – RBA ON DECK

 

The spike down to .6348 has wiped the deck of stops on the downside.

On the upside, a move above .6547-59 (use .6545-60) would be needed to confirm the low is in and shift the risk to the upside..

Next up is the RBA decision where ,6500 will dictate whether this rebound has legs.

[Mtl JP]

michael think the “good reaction” is on account of Jay’s 7:17 reference to wapo quote ?

maybe it is something else, like say some blip from someone that US economy is doing swimmingly

[Author]

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