[SF Monedge]

Food for thought.

1.      Why would you pay attention to a “bias indicator” based on the total of retail customers of a brokers client base knowing the vast majority of retail traders are wrong and lose their money?  Nice gimmick.

2.      A well known and highly frequented  FX “advisor” frequently quoted in news feeds, primarily to retail audience noted very early this morning before the action really hit that “UsdChf is trading flat, best to stay away.”  Why?  Would it not be better to learn how and why to be active in it successfully?  The pair dropped over 100 points in a short period of time.  They don’t know what they are doing beyond  average in my opinion.  They do have solid informational value if you are novice.

3.      Why would you not listen to a highly skilled and very kind former bank Trader like Jay Meisler instead?  Or a former in demand CTA such as myself or the other actual and very skilled former bank traders who frequently post here in GVI?

I sold UsdJpy right before it collapsed last night in late Asia.  I have been long AudUsd since yesterday.  I have been short UsdChf since yesterday against a lot of opinions to be long US Dollar.  I have been long GbpUsd since yesterday.  Picking away at EurJpy on both sides the entire way.  You won’t find that with Youtube or TikTok gurus or the aforementioned not as stellar as advertised advisory sources which are popular.

You will find it here in GVI.

Disclaimer – I am not paid by GVI or under contract with GVI in any fashion.  I am simply commenting in the hope of being helpful and enjoy the input from others here.

[GVI Forex 2]

Let’s see if I can sum it up

Bigger reaction in FX than in rate expectation (52/48 for a 50bps rate cut)

EURUSD: Tepid test of 1.12
GBPUSDL Paused below its 1.3434 high
USDJPY: Extended its overnight low to 142.50
AUDUSD: New high

[GVI Forex 2]

Took a peek at a major broker’s client sentiment. This is just one broker and a snapshot in time.’

EURUSD 70% short
GBPUSD 71^ shirt
AUDUSD 65^ short
USDJOY 53% long

[SF Monedge]

One might think we see 6950 AudUsd eventually.  If you were thinking long Usd you were premature.  Hence mine and others posts yesterday in the forum to help.

[GVI Forex 2]

One of my trading insights is that when in a trend, a market needs a shakeout before making a run at a new high or low as there is less ability to absorb the fresh buying or selling.

Examples today are in GBPUSD and AUDUSD, yet to make new highs but nit that far away.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – BOUNCE FROM ABOVE SUPPORT

I cited ,6814 yesterday as the key level on the downside and note the pause and bounce from just above it.

There was a rationale why this was more than just a support. It is all part of The Amazing Trader logic, which not only identified the key level but also why this was the key level.

In any case, AUDUSD is in limbo while within .68-.69 with a bid if it can stay above ,6850

Fundamentally AUDUSD stands to benefit from China stimulus given its close ties to the Chinese economy

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – FAILURE?

When we talk about failure, AUDUSD failed to sustain the break of .6899.

Now it is dependent on the trendline and .6814 holding (and .6782-00 as well) or momentum will be broken and the last leg up negated..

In any case, the deck is cleared of buy stops unless 6908 is broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

Early observations

USDJPY trading back above 144 but below yesterday’s 144.68 high

EURUSD failed to test 1.1201 but lagging GBPUSD

GBPUSD failed to hold new high above 1.34, firmer EURGBP appears to be a factor

AUDUSD went through its .6899 target and now back below it

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD MONTHLY CHART – EXTENDING HIGH

AUDUSD extending its high to .6869, up 8% in the past 2 months.

Next target is clear at .6899 (use .6800) if .6869 is broken.

In any case, hard to chase up here but expect support below the market as long a it stays above .6800

[GVI Forex 2]

RBA remains the outlier, keeping rates unchanged, remaining more hawkish than dovish

AUDUSD backed off from a 6869 post-RBA high but keeps a bid as long as .6800 holds as support.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD WEEKLY CHART – AND THE WINNER IS….

AUDUSD up 1% and so far the outperformer

On the downside, 2 levels to watch:

.6825 (key daily resistance broken) and 6800

Maintains a bid while above .6800, stronger bid if .5825 become support

Watch US equities, which are setting the risk on tone

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks up => risk on => usd down but only AUDUSD among the majors has extended its high

Next up is the UK rate decision => no change expected

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up Aussie jobs report

Note AUDUSD firm ahead of it (USDJPY 143+}

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

Thus week’s ranges so far… stops are generaly placed outside the low/high for the week but not sure why anyone would place a stop after a key event kike the fOMC… look at your charts to see key levels outside of these levels

EURUSD 1.1072-1.1146

USDJPY 139.57-1.4246

GBPUSD 1.3111-1.3254

USDCAD 1.3565-1.3515

AUDUSD .6694-.6789

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD DAILY CHART – Up while waiting for the Fed

AUDUSD break of .6766 targets .6824 as long as it trades above it.

Supports below this level are at .6750/40/30 but key post-FOMC level is .6689

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Momentum builder?

Break of .6689 needs to hold to give it a strong bid that would then need take out the trendline to put the key .6767 high in play.

Look for a bid otherwise while above .6656.

[GVI Forex 2]

Long wait until the US jobs report

Some pivotal levels to watch

EURUSD 1.1140 (1.11 is pivotal)
USDJzPY 141.68 (142 will be pivotal)
GBPUSD 1.32 is also pivotal
AUDUSD .6750 is also pivotal

By pivotal I mean will eventually set the tone and bias to trade.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD DAILY CHART – Support broken but…

Stop run below .6698 proved to tempting not to run them but the failure to sustain the break has negated the impact.

However, to negate the risk, the trendline would need to be broken and ,6750+ renewed.

[GVI Forex 2]

Mixed signals… stocks popped up… firmer AUDUSD gave a heads up but USDJPY is lower despite the uptick in stocks

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD DAILY CHART – ALL ABOUT RISK OFF

Targeting .6697 while below .6751

Firm break of .6697 would suggest the high is in for now.

Above .6697 would be needed to keep .68+ on the radar.

[GVI Forex 2]

Heatmap

AUDUSD => underperformer BREAKDOWN LEVEL WAS .6751, intra-day double bottom at .6730)

AUDJPY => Biggest loser

[SF Monedge]

To detail the trade I was long from 144.28 and was confident 145.25 would be seen with t a ceiling of EITHER 145.50 or 145.60 on over-reach.  Failed to take the money around 145.40 to be safe, endured the pullback, loaded up elsewhere in conjunction with the AudUsd positioning I mentioned coming into the NY session so was just fine but that is quite a trim on gains by being impatient and not reacting aggressively enough in the same opera.

If you are not swimming in money precision is important.  I hope this helps novices or anyone else for me to share my perspective as a former CEO of an investment firm.  None of us are perfect and all of us face the same market.

[SF Monedge]

EurJpy received that hard sell interest overnight I was mentioning last night in early Asia that I thought we might see.  Activity has reached equilibrium in my view for Yen pre-US session.   Prefer the buy side on sell interest exhaustion for UsdJpy.  AudUsd is running into options turbulence and so it will have a challenge to run uphill from here which one might think will aid in supporting UsdJpy although they operate differently.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – STAR TODAY

New high after bounce off the .6761 double bottom.

As I have been noting a firm break of .6800 would leave a void of 100 pips to the next target (.6899).

This leaves .6800 as clearly pivotal with a bid as long as above it, stronger if above 6812.

No news other than firmer US stocks after the Nvidia dip in a risk on day so far.

[SF Monedge]

AudUsd is on borrowed time temporarily, see 6650 in coming weeks holding reasonable mean reversion.

[GVI Forex 2]

I got this question from a club member

“When you mention stops, are you referring to my stop or other stops?”

Believe me, no one is going after your stop unless you are trading with a less reputable broker.

What I am referring to are algos that are programmed to seek out levels where stops placed by a variety of market participants are likely bunched.

The reason this is most apparent in the forex market is that, unlike CFDs, there is a common price feed so everyone with a chart is looking at the same levels, So, since all traders, for example, are looking at the same levels (e.g. high and low of the day), stops are often placed at key levels that can be identified in advance,

This is what it looks like when stops are run at a recent high (AUDUSD)

Feel free to comment, ask a question or contact [email protected] directly.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – CPI ALERT

NEWSQUAWK PREVIEW AUSTRALIAN CPI (WED):

NEWSQUAWK WEEKLY OUTLOOK SHOWS A FORECAST FOR A DROP IN CPI WITH ONE BANK CALLING FOR A BIGGER DROP THAN THE CONSENSUS.

THIS MAY OFFER AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A TRADE – SEE SUPPORTS BELOW

ON THE UPSIDE A FIRM BREAK OF .6800 WOULD LEAVE A VOID OF ABOUT 100 PIPS UNTIL THE NEXT TARGET.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – TARGET HIT

Consolidating

Hit its key target at the 2024 .6797 high and then backed off.

Would need a firm break of.6800 for another 100 pips on the upside.

Room on the downside for a retracement but that is all it would be unless .6697 is taken out,

Use 6750 as one of those pivotal levels that needs to hold to contain the doiwnside.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD DAILY CHART – TESTS 2024 HIGH

What caught my eye is the AUDUSD, which tested .6797 (high .6798) and then backed off.

As posted in our Weekly FX Outlook

Key target tested at the 2024 high at 6797.

Suggest .6800 is equally important as there is a void above it to .6799

Strong bid while above .6760.

[GVI Forex 2]

I don’t remember a time when all the key currencies were focused on pivotal levels, which will dictate respective tones going forward.

(EURUSD 1.12, USDJPY 145, GBPUSD 1.32, USDCAD 1.35, AUDUSD .68)

See our

Weekly FX Charts Update