[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update

Defensive trading into the long US holiday weekend

• US stocks trying to recover but so far US500 has failed on first attempt to hold above 6850 following its bounce from sub-6800 test
• NAS100 rally attempt paused shy of 24860, to keep it on the defensive but consolidating.
• XAUUSD rebound testing 5000+, which is currently acting like a pivot
• USD is trading cautiously irmer with the JPY lagging after leading overnight. EURUSD 1,.1850 remains pivotal
• BITCOIN is trying find some legs after yesterday’s bounce off 65000 yesterday but needs to gewt through 70-72K to break down momentum..

[Mtl JP]

trying again
with euro 1.1849

which will come first:
1.1820 or 1.1920 ?

[GVI Forex 2]

For your botter: Possible dates for the Supreme Couyrt to rule on Trum tariffs

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[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 UPDATE

• Remains on the defensive ahead of the long holiday weekend but seeing some tentative signs of support … needs to regain 24780-24860+ to break down momentum and shift focus back to 25000.
• Otherwise risk stays tilted down with next key support just above 24000.

NAS100 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 UPDATE

• Having failed below 7000, US500 has made a run and paused just above the other pivotal round number at 6800 although next key chart support is not until 6730.
• To ease the risk on the downside, 6850+ would be needed.
• Intra-day resistance is at 6844, the post-CPI spike high.
• 6800 JUST BROKE AS I POSTED THIS UPDATE… WATCH 6800 AS A GUIDE, CLEARLY PIVOTAL… ADDENDUM, STOPS AND POP , LAST AT 6840

US500 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Trading in the world of news algos

Reacted to the headline CPI miss and ignored the in line core CPI before logic took over (e.g. EURUSD 1.1860 => 1.1885 => 1.1860 => 1.1868 (last)

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.1879

which will come first:
1.1820 or 1.1920 ?

[GVI Forex 2]

CPI headline miss but Core in line with the consensus… initial reaction is to the headline miss but Core CPI is seen as more important

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[Mtl JP]

2.4% vs 2.5% exp’td

ie. piddly putz basic nothing burger

[Belgrade Bobby]

US Stocks Pre Market Losers

[Belgrade Bobby]

US Stocks Pre Market Gainers

[Belgrade Bobby]

Bitcoin On-Chain Heatmap Shows All Major Metrics In The Red

The indicators in the graph are all key on-chain metrics covering different dimensions of the network. For example, the MVRV Z-Score deals with general investor profitability, while the Trader Realized Price and Trader On-chain Profit Margin specifically track the profit-loss status of the short-term holders.

All the indicators in the heatmap are currently giving a red signal, implying conditions aren’t favorable for a bull market. As long as that remains the case, it is hard to imagine BTC reaching new highs in the short term.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Pre-Market Movers

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[Belgrade Bobby]

FX option expiries for 13 February 10am New York cut

Large one for EUR/USD at the 1.1850 level. The expiries hold close to the 200-hour moving average of 1.1846 currently and that together, that could keep a floor on price action in the session ahead. The expiries could also act as a bit more of a magnet, with the key near-term level having been where buyers stepped in after the non-farm payrolls drop.

So, the two when put together could lock in EUR/USD price action in European trading barring any major headline surprises.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Pair is finishing this week locked within 1.18300 & 1.19300

Intraday – capped by 1.18650 & 1.18900

On the downside – loss of 1.18500 would chance attack at 1.18300

[Mtl JP]

GVI 1:00 pm / is that because his advisors tell him that one strike group is not enough to bend Iran to his dictates beause of expected high (high = 60%) wipeout casualty rate ?

[Mtl JP]

Jeff Cox on cnbc re CPI:

The January CPI inflation report is due out Friday morning. Here’s what it’s expected to show

– The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, is expected to show a 2.5% gain from a year ago.

– If that ends up being accurate, it would bring the gauge back to its May 2025 level — a month after President Donald Trump enacted his “liberation day” tariffs that many thought would send prices spiraling higher.

– A light reading for January could give Federal Reserve policymakers more confidence that they can lower their benchmark borrowing rate without risking another inflation burst.

Tactical Question:
trade player reaction ahead of the release OR
fade it after the release ?

[GVI Forex 2]

US ups pressure on Iran

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[GVI Forex 2]

See our Economic Data Calendar for consensus CPI forecasts

[GVI News]

This intro to the Reuters Morning Bid email sums it up

In this topsy turvy week, we saw a landslide election win in Japan, a creeping extension of the artificial intelligence disruption trade, a pushback on President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda and a mix of U.S. economic data that jostled rates markets. Put it all together, and it suggests that the market outlook on everything from technology to the “Takaichi trade” is clear as mud…

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD UPDATE

What stands out on this chart is:

1. Today’s high just below 5000 (high 4997), confirming this as the pivotal level
2. Yesterday’s low (4878) below 4900

This suggests little to go for within 4900-5000, upper end needing to be broken to restore a bid while only a break of the lower end would put 4878 and potential stops at risk.

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

TGIF on Friday the 13th

• Markets are picking up the pieces from yesterday’s sharp sell-off in US stocks and metals. Gold has rebounded but remains below $5000. US stocks remain on the defensive hoping to get a reprieve from today’s release of US CPI.
• The dollar is trading mixed to slightly firmer  with the trading focus remaining on the JPY where USDJPY has not set a lower low for the first time this week. However, so far, it has not set a higher high, which is needed to break the strong momentum with the high at 153.66 vs, Thursday’s 153.75 high.
• EURUSD remains on the defensive while below 1.19 (3-day pivot around this level broken yesterday  but still up on the week) , so far  consolidating in a tight range after finding support just below the pivotal 1.1850 level and above 1.1833 (Wed low)
• GBPUSD is currently unchanged on the day
• The AUDUSD is the second underperformer after retreating from its 3-year high as the mood turned to risk off.
• US CPI is due at 13:30 GMT (08:30 EST)
• Another partial government shutdown looms

[Mtl JP]

BITCOIN
$66.5K as I type.
–
whispers, arguings and opinions (about something that is, really, just some lines of code)

Bitcoin’s Plunge Isn’t Even Close To Over
– Daniel Jones, SeekingAlpha
“I doubt that you will ever find a bigger bear when it comes to Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) than I am. I have long viewed it as destined to fail.” …/

bla bla bla bla …

…“2026 I expect to be a bear leg to the four-year cycle,” Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg told CNBC. “We have experienced several four-year cycles since bitcoin has launched and this is no different than any other.”

Others have been far more pessimistic in their outlook, predicting Bitcoin could plummet to as low as $30,000, or even $0.

sounds of democracy
to me

[GVI News]

Feb 12 (Reuters) – Wall Street indexes fell sharply on Thursday, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq slumping 2%, as investors intensified their selloff of tech shares and fled transport stocks amid worries about artificial intelligence disruption….

[GVI News]

Feb 12 (Reuters) – Americans are shouldering almost all of President Donald Trump’s import tax surge, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Thursday.

The bank said 90% of the tariffs imposed by the president on imported goods are borne by American consumers and companies. The report pushes back against the Trump administration’s argument that the levies are paid by foreigners…..

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold Technicals

[Belgrade Bobby]

Market Summary 2

[Belgrade Bobby]

Market Summary 1

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap Part 2

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