[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Getting a reprieve from the reaction to the .SCOTUS tariff ruling that needs to get through 25060 and then 25407 to build momentum to the upside.
• In any case3, 25000 is probably more important than any technical level if NAS100 is to restore abid.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Ending the week on a firmer footing, needing to establish above 6900-10/15 to build on momentum following the rebound off 6774.
• Otherwise, dowside limited as long as it trades above 5832.
• Meanwhile, traders and investors will take the weekend to digest the tariff situation,  which now faces fresh uncertainty as Trump & Co look to workaround the Scotus decision.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US President Trump says effectively immediately, all national security tariffs under 232 and 301 remain in place. 10% global tariff to be imposed on top of other tariffs

Several investigations will be initiated.
Starting 301 probes to protect their country.

Truth Post at same time he spoke: “effective immediately, all National Security TARIFFS, Section 232 and existing Section 301 TARIFFS, remain in place, and in full force and effect. Today I will sign an Order to impose a 10% GLOBAL TARIFF, under Section 122, over and above our normal TARIFFS already being charged, and we are also initiating several Section 301 and other Investigations to protect our Country from unfair Trading practices.”

Says he does not need to ask congress for tariffs.
Criticises Canada, Mexico and Taiwan.

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Fed’s Logan (2026 voter, Hawk) says uncertainty in the economy continues, one of the biggest uncertainties is from the tech sector

• Supported January decision to hold amid a stabilising job market.
• Is not fully convinced they are on a path to 2% inflation.
• SCOTUS decision has led to more uncertainty.
• Upside inflation risks remain.
• Policy is well positioned to deal with risks to the mandate.
• Is worried about economic demand outstripping supply.

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets paring back post-SCOTUS ruling moves waiting for President Trump to address the press.

[GV World]

February 20 Pre-Market Earnings Release Stocks

(OIS) Oil States International Inc reported quarterly adjusted earnings of 13 cents​​ per share for the quarter ended December 31, higher than the same quarter last year, when the company reported EPS of 9 cents.

(FET) Q4 2025 saw revenue of $202M and adjusted net income of $5M, with full year orders at $891M and a book-to-bill ratio of 113%. 2026 guidance anticipates 6% revenue growth and a 16% rise in adjusted EBITDA, supported by a record backlog and strong free cash flow.

(CCOI) Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. Q4 2025 saw revenue decline 5.8% year-over-year to $240.5M, but gross margin rose to 46.8% and EBITDA margin to 21.5%.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Seems set for a break of a 7-day pattern pivoting 5000 on Monday (bullish) and now needs to stay above 5045 to put 5119 at risk.
• Otherwise, 5000 will remain pivotal in keeping a bid.

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

USDYEN 155 (as I type)

Japan’s Takaichi ditches austerity, reassures markets with fiscal pledge By Leika Kihara
February 20, 2026

Summary
PM repeats vow to pursue ‘responsible, proactive’ fiscal policy
Government to introduce multi-year budget framework to spur investment
Japan will avoid ‘reckless’ spending, Takaichi says
PM pledges to set specific indicators on fiscal reform

Bottom Line
Do players trust this woman ?

taichi’s government submitted three major fiscal bills to parliament
formalizing (i.e locking in) a structure of simultaneous tax cuts,
record spending and
debt-financed deficits (five more years of deficit bonds)

[Mtl JP]

“TRUMP SAYS HE” … will entertain anyone willing (hahaha) to listen to him
cheap comedy: no upside listening to it

He ll likely turn on to Canada and USMCA

[GVI Forex 2]

White House has had plenty of time to prepare

TRUMP SAYS HE HAS BACKUP PLAN AFTER SUPREME COURT TARIFFS DECISION -REPORTS (X)

[GVI Forex 2]

President Trump expected to start posting on TS shortly, presumably in response to the SCOTUS tariff ruling

[Mtl JP]

Supreme Court gives no clarity on returning tariffs already collected
From CNN’s John Fritze

The Supreme Court 6-3 majority offered no clarity on the specific practical question of what to do with the money the administration has already collected through President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

That question will likely need to be sorted out by lower courts.

In his dissent, Justice Brett Kavanaugh noted that the court said “nothing today about whether, and if so how, the government should go about returning the billions of dollars that it has collected from importers.”

The issue of refunds has loomed large over the case, with Trump administration officials saying that potential repayments could have devastating consequences for the US economy.

“That process is likely to be a ‘mess,’” Kavanaugh wrote

[Mtl JP]

“legal authority”
the Court held that Trump did not have the legal authority to … blablabla

judging from FX market’s reaction, the ruling does not seem to phaze players much

legal LoL
lets hear bessent on the matter

[GVI Forex 2]

US Supreme Court strikes down the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs (as expected); Voted 6-3 against tariffs; Supreme Court has not addressed eligibility for tariff refunds

Reaction but waiting for clarification on refunds and White House contingency plan response

• Stocks up
• USD down (EURUSD testing 1.18, GBPUSD 1,35. USDJPY 155
• Bond yields up but so far not racing away
• XAUUSD (GOLD) down but holding above 5000
• BTCUSD stuck midway 65k-70k

[GVI Forex 2]

U.S. SUPREME COURT RULES AGAINST TRUMP’S GLOBAL TARIFFS ENACTED UNDER A FEDERAL LAW MEANT FOR NATIONAL EMERGENCIES

[GVI Forex 2]

S&P Global PMI miss (muted reaction)

• US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Feb) 52.3 (Prev. 53.0, Rev. From 53)
• US S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Feb) 52.3 vs. Exp. 53 (Prev. 52.7, Low. 53.0, High. 53.8)
• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Feb) 51.2 vs. Exp. 52.6 (Prev. 52.4, Low. 51.9, High. 53.5)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Crude oil blips on Trump: “limited strike”

US President Trump says he is considering a limited strike on Iran

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Failure to regain 25000+ keeps NAS on the defensive
• 24633 support (allow some leeway for chart levels) was tested, holding so far to maintain the current range and continues to block the recent 24377 low.
• Event risk: Possible SCOTUS tariff ruling around 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT)

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• A lower high following a 61,8% retracement (6909) is dependent on 6832 (triple bottom) holding or the 6774 low comes back on the radar, with the pivotal 6800 standing in front of it.
• Event risk: Possible SCOTUS ruling on tariffs around 10:00 AM EST (15:00 GMT)

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: NVDA, CRWV, FIX, OPEN, ED, LYB, AKAM, GRAL, WTTR

ES -0.2% NQ -0.3% RTY -0.6%

• NVDA -0.3%: Reportedly close to a $30B investment in OpenAI, down from prev. $100B that failed to progress a memorandum
• CRWV -2.2%: OWL reportedly failed to secure financing for $4B data centre project
• FIX +5.2%: Rev. beat
• OPEN +18.7%: Q metrics beat
• ED -4.9%: Adj. net income missed
• LYB -1.4%: Cut Q div. by ~50% amid challenged markets
• AKAM -6.7%: Issued weak guidance
• GRAL -49%: NHS-Galleri trial missed primary endpoint of reducing late-stage cancers
• WTTR -8.6%: Announced $175M class a common stock offering

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

GDP miss  (GOVT shutdown was a factor, Core PCE miss (higher)

• US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q4) Q/Q 1.4% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 4.4%, Low. 1.7%, High. 4.4%)
• US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Dec) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%, Low. 0.2%, High. 0.4%)
• US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Dec) Y/Y 3.0% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%, Low. 2.8%, High. 3.1%)

[GVI Forex 2]

 

US PCE and GDP due at 13:30GMT/08:30EST

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD updatre

• 1.1777-1.1781 blocks return 1.1800
• 1.1777 = 50 day MVA, 1.1681 = 100 hour MVA
• 1.1742 = 2-day double bottom

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Iran plans to prepare a draft of potential nuclear agreement within 2-3 days for consultations with the US

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

DON’T RUSH BUYING THE S&P 500 DIP, PIPER SANDLER SAYS

PIPER SANDLER URGES CAUTION AFTER THE RECENT REBOUND, WARNING THE MARKET REMAINS FRAGILE DESPITE THE BOUNCE.

ANALYST CRAIG JOHNSON NOTES WEAK CONVICTION, WITH THE S&P 500 AND NASDAQ STILL BELOW THEIR 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGES… (X)

[GVI Forex 2]

 

U.S. COULD FACE MORE THAN $175 BILLION IN TARIFF REFUNDS IF SUPREME COURT RULES AGAINST TRUMP, PENN-WHARTON BUDGET MODEL SAYS …(X)

[GVI Forex 2]

Possible dates for the Supreme Court to rule on Trump tariffs

February 20th (today), 24th and 25th

[GVI Forex 2]

Magnificent 7 Downgrade

 

Citi multi-asset strategists downgraded Technology stocks to Neutral, aiming to diversify away from the Magnificent 7 and increasing stakes in US small caps

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD UPDATE

Is the low in?

• Flirted with its 200 day MVA (blue line = 1.3442) for the 2nd day in a row.
• Bounce would need to regain 1.3500 and break 1.3517 to negate the risk and confirm the low is in.

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• While 5000 has printed for the 7th day in a row, chart shows risk  trying to build to the upside.
• On the upside, 5046 stands in the way of building momentum for a run at 5119.
• On the downside, keeps a strong bid if it can hold above 5000 with fallback support as long as it holds above 4960.

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[Author]

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