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USDJPY ticked back up to 153 on this headline
Japanese PM Takaichi to unveil a sweeping budgeting reform, placing strategic investments under a ringfenced multi-year framework to enhance predictability and attract private capital, Nikkei reports citing a draft
- Nikkei reprots “The draft calls for breaking with the entrenched practice of compiling budgets on the assumption that supplementary packages will follow.”
via Nikkei
- Echoes earlier reports in Japanese press. Ahead of Takaichi’s Lower House speech on Friday.
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XAUUSD UPDATE
- Does the plunge in XAUUSD in the absence of most of Asia suggest how those markets have an influence on demand for GOLD?
- In any case, XAUUSD is on the defensive after the failure to stay above 5000 and dependent on 4850-58 holding to prevent a run at the pivotal 4800 level and below.
- On the upside, back above 4970 is needed to shift the focus back to 5000.,
XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART
Forex Market Snapshot
US traders return from a long holiday weekend to the dollar trading mixed but off earlier highs and weaker stocks setting a risk off tone as overnight moves have so far seen limited followthrough.
- USDJPY, for the second day in a row, failed in a setup with a failure to test key 153.75 resistance. It has since slipped back below 153, a level that has traded in each of the past 5 days but so far remains above recent 152.26-36 lows.
- While the JPY outperforms GBP is underperforming although off its earlier low (1.3552) following the UK jobs report.
- EURUSD unable to shake a focus from 1.1850 (currently just below it) as a firmer EURGBP (although off its high) causes it to lag the GBPUSD.
- A slide in precious metals has seen XAUUSD fall sharply after failing in attempts to re-establish above $5000 but has found support in the mid $4800s
- Geopolitical focus is on the dual peace talks, US-Iran, Russia-Ukraine although it is hard to have high hopes for a breakthrough but at least they are talking..
- A light US economic calendar today.
USDJPY UPDATE:
- Downside losing steam but still requires a firm break of 153.75 to confirm USDJPY has lost momentum and shift the risk to 154.65.
- Watch 153 to see if a 4-day pattern around is broken, which would be bullish but only if 153.75 is decisively taken out. Otherwise, the bounce from 152.26-36 is just a retracement.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
USDCNH (4HR)
China’s yuan surpassed the psychologically key resistance 6.90 for the first time in 33 months on Thursday then slipped on Friday but remains on track for a 12th straight week of gains, its longest winning streak in 13 years. The yuan gained 0.25% on the first few hours of the asian session and as of the time of writing, is holding around 6.8850.
Analysts expect the yuan to keep rising against a weakening dollar as Chinese exports remain resilient and Beijing is more receptive to a strong currency.
AUDUSD (4HR)
AUDUSD moved slightly lower today, showing signs of short-term consolidation after failing to extend gains above the recent swing high near 0.7150. Despite this, the pair continues to trade above the EMA50 and EMA100, maintaining its position within the broader bullish structure alongside the supports from technical indicators
As long as price stabilizes above the 0.7050–0.7080 support zone, the bullish scenario remains. On the downside, a confirmed break below the trend line and 0.7050 could trigger a deeper correction toward 0.7000 (EMA200 area), which still represents a key structural support.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its rates to 3.85% earlier this month and minutes of that board meeting, due in 7hrs as of time of writing, could show how hawkish the members were about the outlook.
Cooling Conditions, Unpredictable Road Ahead
ETHUSD isn’t flashing explosive momentum in either direction. Instead, it’s compressing. Liquidity is cooling. Participation is below averages. Daily trading volume is around $24B, more than half from the previous week. Ethereum price remains trapped within this narrowing range and for now shows more like compression, and has no clear confirmation.
ETHUSD (4HR)
Ethereum has entered a bearish trend, failing to maintain its position above the $2,050 mark and dipping below $2,040 and looking like its forming a compression inside a bearish pennant on the 3-day chart. The price has also broken below a bullish trend line, with support now around $1950.
On the higher timeframe, the Ethereum price chart shows a classic post-drop consolidation. The structure remains intact, however confirmed break below support would validate the formation where it can even reach below $1500
USDJPY UPDATE:
- Post-election downtrend showing signs of running out of steam after repeated support (higher lows) in the 152s.
- However, a firm break of 153.75 is what would be needed to confirm USDJPY has lost momentum and shift the risk to 154.65, which guards a return to 155.
- Otherwise, focus stays on 153, a level that has printed 4 days in a row..
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
XAUUSD UPDATE
- Unable to shake its focus from $5000, which has traded for the 3rd day in a row (and 6 out of the past 8 days) and will eventually be the level that dictates whether bulls will or will not regain control.
- US holiday, China starting its week long Lunar holiday,US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva tomorrow may be retraining the market.
- Intra-day range:4965-5043 (see chart)
- Right click on chart to open a full screen in a new tab
XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART
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