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Newsquawk US Market Wrap Part 2
US indices were choppy on Tuesday, as US players returned from the US holiday, but ultimately settled with mild gains. After the US cash equity open, indices saw a notable sell-off with the Mag-7 leading the decline, ex-Apple, although swiftly pared through the afternoon. For Apple, Wedbush wrote that the recent selloff in the tech behemoth is unwarranted, and that 2026 will be the year Apple gets into the AI game. Data came via weaker-than-expected NAHB and NY Fed, which marginally topped on the headline, with internals steady; the latter sparked some gradual pressure in T-Notes. The highlight of the day, and dominating the tape, was geopolitical updates with both the US/Iran meeting, and also the trilateral confab between the US/Russia/Ukraine. On the former, the crude complex saw notable weakness after the Iranian Foreign Minister said they have reached an understanding on the main principles with the US, but it does not mean an agreement will be reached soon; the path has started. In more recent trade, US VP Vance remarked that in some ways, Iran talks went well, and Iranians are not yet willing to acknowledge some of Trump’s red lines. On the trilateral meeting, where little new was learnt, Zelensky told Axios that the Ukrainian people would reject a peace deal that involves Ukraine unilaterally withdrawing from the eastern Donbas region and turning it over to Russia. The main sticking point is control of the Donbas, and talks in Geneva are expected to continue on Wednesday. The Dollar Index was marginally stronger, with Antipodeans and Yen the gainers, and the Pound the G10 loser on a weak UK jobs report. Treasuries were mixed across the curve, with the short-end weaker and the long-end seeing losses. Spot gold was lower and trades back beneath USD 4.9k/oz. Ahead, FOMC Minutes on Wednesday is arguably the highlight, as well as 20yr bond auction.
Newsquawk US Market Wrap Part 1
- SNAPSHOT: Equities, Treasuries mixed, Crude down, Dollar up, Gold down.
- REAR VIEW: Iran’s Foreign Minister said it has reached an understanding on main principles with the US, but does not mean agreement will be reached soon; Russia-Ukraine talks reportedly tense; Ukraine to reject deal that involves unilaterally withdrawal from eastern Donbas region; Fed’s Barr said outlook suggests steady rates for some time; Fed’s Daly said 75bps to go to get to neutral; UK u/e rate ticks higher; US NAHB falls short; NY Fed Mfg. Index slightly beats; Canada CPI leans soft.
- COMING UP: Holiday: Chinese Spring Festival Golden Week (17-24 Feb). Data: Australian Wage Price Index (Q4), UK CPI (Jan), US Durable Goods, Industrial Production (Jan), Housing Starts (Nov/Dec), Atlanta Fed GDP. Events: RBNZ Policy Announcement; FOMC Minutes (Jan); US-Ukraine-Russia talks to take place (17-18 Feb). Speakers: RBNZ’s Bremen; ECB’s Cipollone, Schnabel; Fed’s Bowman. Supply: Australia, Germany, US. Earnings: Analog, Carvana, DoorDash, Booking Holdings, Moody’s, Garmin, Glencore.
- WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include US PCE and GDP, FOMC Minutes, RBNZ, Flash PMIs, UK, Canadian and Japanese Inflation. Click here for the full report.
The Ukrainian people would reject a peace deal that involves Ukraine unilaterally withdrawing from the eastern Donbas region and turning it over to Russia, Ukrainian President Zelensky told Axios
RussiaUkrainian President Zelensky says Russia’s position is absurd and may be an indication that Moscow is not ready for real peace, Sky News Arabia reports-Ukraine-
US talks on Ukraine settlement in Geneva were tense, Ria citing sources reports; Geneva talks on Ukraine settlement lasted six hours, and to be continued on Wednesday
XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
- Bulls not likely to give up the fight but could face another squeeze if 4800 is broken.
- Meanwhile there is a double bottom (4849) ahead of the 4841 that needs to hold for a pause  Below 4841 is a clear path for 4800.
- On the upside, above 4893 and 4907 are what is needed to build some upward momentum but only through 4925 and 4944 would negate the down risk and shift focus back to 5000.
XAUUSDÂ 1 HOUR CHART
February 17 Pre-Market Earnings Release Stocks
(ETOR) Shares of eToro Group rose after the company’s fourth-quarter earnings per share beat analysts’ expectations for the quarter, despite a plunge in cryptocurrency revenue. Adjusted EPS came in at 71 cents, compared to analyst expectations of 66 cents, according to estimates compiled by FactSet
(FLR) Fluor Corporation, a global engineering, procurement, construction, and maintenance services company, reported a net loss attributable to Fluor of $1.6 billion, or ($9.87) per diluted share, primarily due to a $2 billion reduction in the valuation of its investment in NuScale
(SXC) SunCoke Energy, Inc. reported a net loss for 2025 due to significant one-time charges, with revenues and Adjusted EBITDA declining year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $219.2M, mainly due to lower Domestic Coke sales and contract changes
A senior White House official says “Progress has been made in the talks with Iran, but there are still many details to be discussed….”, Axios’ Ravid reports
The Iranians said they would come back in the next two weeks with detailed proposals to bridge some of the gaps that remained between our positions.
Global-View Market Update
- USD Up on the day but off highs after EURUSD held 1.1800, GBPUSD bounced from below 1.35 and USDJPY ran stops above 143.75 as bipolar mood flips back to risk on
- US stocks back with a bid in choppy trade after US500 again found support below 6800 and NAS recovered earlier losses.
- XAUUSD down sharply on the day but bounce from a 4841 low would need to regain 4900 to cool some of the risk.,
- BITCOIN in the background trading mid-way between 65K-70K
- US bond yields down
- Crude oil down on glimmer of hope from US-Iran talks
[MARKET UPDATE] US equities are continuing to sell off with ES futures retreating below 6800; DXY is strengthening against its peers as EUR/USD nears 1.1800 to the downside; Brent Apr’26 dips below USD 67/bblNAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE
- NAS continues to struggle with a bounce today failing below the bottom of 24770-24911 resistance.
- This keeps the risk on the downside where 24770+ is needed to at least postpone the current risk to 24142.
- Worth noting is that the bounce in stocks after the cash open was met with selling.
NAS100 1 HOUR CHART
Crude oil slips . US stocks blip up on Iran comments … (yet to hear from the US)Â Araghchi: In this round of negotiations, very serious discussions were held and there was a more constructive atmosphere. We were able to reach a general agreement on a set of guiding principles, based on which we will move forward and enter the text of the potential agreement.(X)
Iran’s Foreign Minister says we have reached understanding on main principles with the US, the two parties will welcome potential agreement documents and exchange them, does not mean an agreement will be reached soon but the path has started (Newsquiawk)
USDCAD ticks up on tame CPI
Canadian Inflation Rate YoY (Jan) Y/Y 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%, Low. 2.3%, High. 2.6%)
Canadian Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jan) Y/Y 2.6% (Prev. 2.8%)
Canadian Core Inflation Rate MoM (Jan) M/M 0.2% (Prev. -0.4%)
Senior US official says the second round of talks with Iran has ended, Axios reports
EURUSD UPDATE
In its role as the anti-dollar, EURUSD has turned on the defensive but so far somewhat reluctantly. So let’s look at levels to watch:
- 1.1850 (pivotal bias setting level while within 1.18-1.19, also today’s high)
- 1.1833 (former support broken today, so far being pivoted after a 1.1824 low),,,. firmly below is what is needed to shift the focus to 1.18.
- Layers of support below the market: 1.1809, 1.1785, 1.1765
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART
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