[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF 4 HOUR CHART – WHY IS USDCHF BID?

‘
USDCHF is bucking the weaker USD trend elsewhere as can be seen by this straight line move off its low.

The significance of .9102 is that a break would confirm the end of the last leg down and open the door on the upside.

Why is USDCHF bid?

Scroll down and see the posts on CHF crosses.

[GVI Forex 2]

Monedge, pooped but not popped.

Same with most currencies although CHF and JPY are weakest today.

USDJPY is back abovr 155

USDCHF is holding above .90

Kight data day tomorrow.

[SF Monedge]

UsdChf has a little more room to roam but I am interested in being on the bid of Swiss itself coming up.  So UsdChf holds for a little while but not very much longer.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr, DLRx, USDCHF, EURDLR
I am biased
–
biased to buy things dlr when energy vectors are at conjunction

[SF Monedge]

In the water long UsdChf / short European Union.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF 5-MINUTE CHART – CHOICE OF TIME FRAMES

I like to look at whatever time frame chart is tracking a market the best, especially when there is a trend.

Today I have found using 5-minute AT charts to identify changes in direction in what has been a range day since I came in

So here is one for you JP, which indicates a potential directional shift with the target at ..9088.

Reminder this is a 5 minute chart and directional shift patterns are better seen on 15 and 30-minute charts. but 5 minute has been working today.

[SF Monedge]

UsdChf sell side looks decent in Asia tonight for a few pips.  Overall picture is different.  See it long as mentioned earlier for higher ground inevitably.

[Belgrade Bobby]

I felt urge to concur with our California colleagues from Monedge , regarding possible Longs in USDJPY above 155…

Back in days when I was trading OPM ( Other people’s  money J , the sheer sizes of the positions held didn’t let me play on small time frames, paired with spread at the time and clients expectations , not to mention that every stop loss could have been yet another signal for a client or two to withdraw their funds…

Executing a stop was like inviting the Devil to take your soul…

We have used hedging as a first aid , but again – different times…we had all different European currencies that were pretty much pegged to each other , so USD could have been bought and sold at the same time, with the same margin , and you could even make money just sitting hedged…

HOW you’re asking…well, interest rate differentials…Long USDCHF, Short USD FF – in both cases you were earning interest….there have been some even more drastic examples , but not really hedging…

I remember when a client of mine didn’t want his profits to be calculated any other way but in USD – Dollar was rallying up like crazy…so those of you who are or were on that side of the game surely understand the problem – for those of you who have no idea what am I talking about – If your Home currency is the one that is appreciating the most, all the profits that are going to be made will lose some ( at least in percentages) till year’s end….Got it ??

So in one moment of genius ( or maybe that was just a desperation on my end) , after deep research and some help from a friend ( few of them to be exact – all on the dealing desk of SA Central Bank ) I went Short USDZAR – interest rate differential was about  16% in my favour .

It was one extremely risky move on my part, but within next 4 months paid me truckloads – 8% on Traded amount , plus about 15% of ZAR appreciation vs USD….Mind you, Leverage was not nearly as high as today and we could go as much as 1:10 . But in this devilish trade I made around 215% on funds held. Call me a lunatic, but that’s how the game was played back then…eat or be eaten..

Have to admit that it was kind of easier to trade then, with pretty clear positions of Central Banks and Gov’s in general, not to mention that we had Alan Greenspan 😀

So you got the hint of my experience – and I am going to tell you what No sane advisor, analyst, influencer or a Guru won’t:

When caught with your pants down, but still breathing a bit, use every and any move in your direction to exit the doomed position. Book the loss. And never turn back again. If market decides to go your direction further, well hell…it is not on you – it is on that guy who entered the original trade in the beginning…But that is the only way to survive for sure , to be able to fight another day…

Or just let it be, kiss your margin good buy and start doing something else…like tomato growing plantation…

[SF Monedge]

I see (hopefully) one more round of USD buying which I expect will run out of steam around or above UsdChf 9100 where I like the sell side for duration.  Same with UsdJpy in kind.

Note to those of us who have limited experience in forex trading  — Macd and Stochastics will remove you of your money.  You are better off listening to people in here with experience.

And for the love of God if you think some youtube or facebook “guru” is going to make you money with “signals” on your cell phone you are in for a rude awakening.  Monedge, for example, was formed by CTA’s and other industry professionals, GVI is frequented by real bank traders with real experience.  Big, big difference.

[SF Monedge]

On UsdChf the only real barriers to the market possibly finding value toward 9000 re at 9065, 9040, and 9020 or so.  Decent template for ones individual risk tolerance or goals.

[SF Monedge]

Like the short as well around here 9105 JP, UsdChf…regarding Summers, he is both highly intelligent but also quite tethered to his opinions even when others disagree.  I think the sudden employ shock is a bad recipe though, surely there can be other ways to tame inflation, taming debt might be one little idea.

[Mtl JP]

9208, high 9244ish
new day after yesty’s month end rebalancing fx hedges

Looking just at USDCHF price action and concidering that most rebalancing occurs +/- 5 minute window around the fixing time and only a small portion starting maybe an hour prior, there should be something else / more than month end rebalancing of fx hedges that continued to drive the DLR up

Which makes me think … about what would be needed to push the dollar higher still

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

Support lies at 0.90950

Resistance at 0.91550 ,  0.92000 & 0.9250

If it closes the day above 0.91300, we should be running to 0.94000

However, the Rally that started in January this year is kind of overdue for the correction…

But never say never….

[Mtl JP]

USDCHF 9191

with reference to my earlier H&S posted play
puppy behaved pleasantly according to H&S tacticals
hitting 9095 LoD

[SF Monedge]

If you were paying attention the past two days UsdChf absolutely sat there on the upside while Dxy was selling.  It was a game of hedge & catch up.

[SF Monedge]

Thank JP.  Side note on pairs, UsdJpy and UsdChf overall upward bias has not been significantly compromised with today’s selling in my view although it got my attention.  Expecting further selling on bids above the figures.  Us treasury purchases were strong on the data enough to possibly change the picture to risk on, you could see it pre-data.  A lot of people are watching the 2yr note auction in a little over an hour from now.  Expected to be strong.

[SF Monedge]

Expecting a slight pull back in UsdChf but it would be contra vs the larger picture which appears to remain Dollar bull until proven otherwise.

[SF Monedge]

UsdChf is the 50% spot in my algo is 9080 and it is Friday so unless the market decides it should accelerate the selling again a bit later to not make the mistake of being behind the curve Monday the pair is likely to finish the week around there (likely closer to 9100).  My hope is the less boring version.

[SF Monedge]

For novices in this, here is what it is like to actively get into the volatility I was involved in when UsdChf and UsdJpy so aggressively sold off while globally the same volatility occurred on a massive scale across markets.  I sold at the top in both pairs in Asia before it hit.  I did very handsomely and got out.  I thought it was a consortium of entities intervening and found out quickly after it was the military strike.  I hit a retracement and did ok.  I hit again but it was near the lows and paid for it on a very significant pull back that is very not normal in scope or speed and coughed up a portion of the gains unnecessarily before going “flat.”  Balanced intent matters in such conditions.

 

[SF Monedge]

Just an observation and not to be cute == because I sold both UsdJpy and UsdChf an hour before the sessions started and was in the thick of battle all the way down to the lows in both – the rebounds in price were aggressive and seemed like plunge protection team and CTA momentum algo’s both at work.  I’ve been around it before.

[SF Monedge]

Balance for EurChf has adjusted to flat now so sell waves should be expected to be under normal until Israel hits.  UsdChf could hold here temporarily at 9100 which could give EurChf enough to hold.  Risk aversion is growing and so Chf itself is only a matter of time for hard downside moves once Israel hits in my view.  This includes options.

[SF Monedge]

That and risk aversion finally kicking in Jay I believe.  I’m short everything vs yen again and UsdChf and EurChf and long AudCad, barely missed fill on EurCad below.  Market is speaking.

[SF Monedge]

GV – was watching exactly what you point out.  I’m looking to sell Sterling if it gets close to 125 but so far yes you could see the yield holding and the reaction.  I’m mainly active in AudCad and EurJpy and with the right areas seen UsdJpy.  I know you really don’t like UsdChf but I like the thought of trailing it waiting for a middle east shock, I don’t believe they strike until tomorrow NY time.

[SF Monedge]

Bottom line is Usd is on its back foot although it could hold 106.  Preference is short with a trailing sell entry in UsdChf in case of sudden shock from middle east.

[SF Monedge]

Not entertaining the thought of the sell side in UsdChf unless it nears 9050 or so today

[SF Monedge]

I think UsdChf likely pauses here around 9060 without some surprise.

[SF Monedge]

In on sell side UsdJpy 157.68, picking away is all.  See UsdChf going higher a bit later where I have resting sells

[Mtl JP]

USDCHF 9085
–
Frank think it has more breath ? TIA

[SF Monedge]

Against the grain high risk, testing short UsdChf here at 9050 and buy side of AudCad.  Very light with very tight stops, not for the squeemish.  If it sticks the R/R is very good.  If not, it would be clear today sets the tone for the quarter with Usd strength.  Proper trade is long Usd from Asia.  If it doesn’t stick, the trade is long Usd until the cows come home.

[SF Monedge]

On the buy side here approaching the figure in UsdChf purely intra into Asia