[GVI Forex 2]

What’s hot and wgst’s not?

What’s hot?

US stocks having a sharp rebound, recovering some of Friday s selloff

Gold extends its rebound (briefly so far through 3377)

What’s not?

News algos having a lack of market moving headlines.

CHF is weaker as USDCHF remains the outperformer

What’s hot/not?

Dollar trading mixed with follow through so far limited (except USDCHF)

US bonds flipping between bid and offered, currenly unchanged.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF:

HIGH .80965 VS .8098 (50% FIBO)…LAST .8063…SCROLL BVELOW FOR CHART AND fibos

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF

CHF is underperforming (USD CHF higher)

Straight line move down on Friday has left no obvious resistance levels so use FIBOS (see below)…

USDCHF 4 HOUR CHART

FIBOS for 8171 => 8025 as potential levels.(50% so far capping upside)

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a Heatmap shows

No aftershocks following Friday’s market earthquakes that saw the dollar and stocks tumble

The dollar is off opening week lows as it consolidates but still feeling effects if its tumble

EURUSD so far holding 1.1550

USDJPY briefly tested 148+

CHF is the underperformer (USDCHF up over 0.6%)

Gold is consolidating as well after rising sharply on Friday

US stocks have recovered some of Friday’s losses

US bond yields are up a touch after plunging on Friday on raised expectations of a Sept rate cut

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

Risk off as Trump weighs whether or not to get involved in the Iran-Israel war.

The dollar trading firm but retreating from overnight highs

A firmer safe haven CHF is an exception with USDCHF trading lower despite (as expected) SNB cutting rates to zero

Gold bouncing from its low as it attempts to regain a safe haven bid

US stock markets are closed for a U.S. holiday but CFDs are lower

Crude oil ia higher

Next up: UK rate decision

US markets are closed for the Juneteenth holiday

[GV News]

SocGen’s Economic News Summary

Societe Generale in its early Monday economic news summary pointed out:

— Risk aversion subsides, S&P futures +0.2%, USDCHF steady at 0.8110. Yields up led by Australian government bonds (10-year +8bps), United States Treasury +3bps to 4.42%.

— European Central Bank’s de Guindos: tariffs will weigh on eurozone economic growth and prices for years, but there is little risk of inflation falling too low, euro surge against the US dollar isn’t a major worry.

— China’s retail sales surprise to the upside in May, Q2 gross domestic product tracking 5%. Industrial production eased to 5.8% year over year, FAI year-to-date 3.7%. Retail sales accelerate to 6.4% on Labor Day holiday, consumption subsidies and earlier start of 618 shopping festival. Property investment slump worsens to -10.7% year over year.  USDCNY bid at 7.1850. 10-year CGB yield flat at 1.70%.

— CFTC weekly positioning: long euro raised to 11.5%, long yen trimmed to 37.3%, long sterling upped to 24.1%, short Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) cut to 32.3%, Australian dollar shorts steady at 31.2%, short Swiss franc drop to 32.3% and long Mexican peso trimmed to 34.7%.

— Week ahead: G7 in Canada, Federal Reserve to stand pat, update forecasts and dot-plot. U.S. retail sales. Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Norway’s Norges Bank, Turkey, Taiwan, Brazil and Indonesia central banks forecast to keep rates on hold. Swiss central bank (SNB) forecast to cut 25bps, Sweden’s Riksbank 25bps cut in the balance. Final eurozone and United Kingdom consumer price index. Chinese banks to leave the one- and five-year LPRs unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%.

— Nikkei +1.1%, EUR 10-year IRS +3bps at 2.59%, Brent crude +0.5% at $74.6/barrel, Gold -0.5% at $3,416/oz.

 

Nikkei chart

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my premise that the forex market lives to run stops, it would take a break of Monday’s dollar highs to trigger more stops

EURUSD 1.1065
USDJPY 148,65
GBPUSD 1.3140
USDCHF ,8476
USDCAD 1.4015
AUDUSD 6356

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY and USDCHF extending highs (stops run above earlier highs)… XAUUSD extending its low to 3211

[GVI Forex 2]

Dollsr highs today

EURUSD 1.1082
USDJPY 148.23
GBPUSD 1.3159
USDCHF .8468
AUDUSD .6392
USDCAD 1.3980
NZDUSD .5941

Why are these levels important?

Deck is cleared of USD buy stops until/unless any of these levels are taken out.

[Mtl JP]

Friday’s Close (on my dealing toy)
–
euro 1.1354
eurgbp 8679
usdchf 81445
gbpusd 1.30787
usdjpy 143.445

[Anonymous]

EURUSD:- Target @ 1.1036 breached.

XAUUSD:- Target @ 3000.40 breached.

USDCHF:- looking very gorgeous ;-P

Will post ST and LT forecasts when not so busy.

[Alex Lugano]

“This seemingly ‘sell America’ trade is one that’s now dominating the rising recession risk theme that typically would have pushed yields down,” economists at ING said.

The dollar – often a safe haven in times of turmoil – fell broadly, while investors fled to the Swiss franc and gold.

The dollar index  DXY, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.5% to 102.26, with the euro  EURUSD up 0.78% at $1.1037. Against the Japanese yen  USDJPY, the dollar weakened 0.98% to 144.84.

Against the Swiss franc  USDCHF, the dollar weakened 1.01% to 0.839. Spot gold  class=”logo-PsAlMQQF xxxsmall-PsAlMQQF letter-PsAlMQQF” crossorigin=”” v:shapes=”_x0000_i1032″>GOLD rose 3.03% to $3,074.35 an ounce.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes  US10Y rose 12.4 basis points to 4.384%, from 4.26% late on Tuesday.

Potentially adding to the pressure on Treasuries was an auction of new 10-year notes later on Wednesday – hot on the heels of a weak three-year sale the day before – that could prove a crucial litmus test of investor appetite for U.S. government debt.

US STOCKS RISE EARLY

U.S. stocks were in positive territory early, with investors weighing whether recent sharp selling may have been overdone, although trading remained choppy as it has been all week.

[Alex Lugano]

Investors pile into safe-haven currencies as tariff worries ripple through markets

Key points:

·         Investors scoop up the yen and Swiss franc

·         Aussie steadies after hitting five-year low

·         Markets leaning toward Fed cut in May

Investors bought into safe havens such as the dollar, yen and Swiss franc on Monday as concerns about a global recession heightened following U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on trading partners.

·         Global markets plunged on Monday, with Wall Street stocks trading lower after Asian shares sank, as investors wagered the mounting risk of a deep economic downturn could lead to a cut in U.S. interest rates as early as May.

·         The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars, as well as the Swedish and Norwegian crowns, all dropped against the dollar.

·         The dollar cut its losses against other safe-haven currencies. It was up 0.50% against the yen  USDJPY to 147.605, after tumbling more than 1.4% earlier in the session.

·         The dollar also hit its lowest in six months against the Swiss franc and was last down 0.06% at 0.8605 franc in choppy trading.  USDCHF.

·         “The only thing we know for sure is that it’s volatile … But I think broadly, leaving aside nuances, because tariffs are thought to be hurting world growth, those currencies that seem to be more like risk-on currencies – the dollar bloc and the Scandies – they are underperforming,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

·         “On the other hand, the currencies that are typically safe-haven currencies – like the Swiss franc and yen – are performing better.”

·         The euro  EURUSD, which gained as much as 0.7% to $1.1050 earlier in the session, was down 0.39% at $1.091775.

·         “The euro has certainly performed really quite well over the last couple of days since we’ve heard about the tariffs,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

·         “Maybe that’s related to the euro zone current account position, or maybe it’s just related to investors still moving out of U.S. assets and still not quite sure where they should be moving their money to.”

While the dollar is typically known as a safe-haven asset, that status seems to be eroding as uncertainty over tariffs and concern over their impact on U.S. growth intensify.

Brought to you by Reuters

[SF Monedge]

I am expecting US stocks to temporarily run into trouble in the next day or so and that should affect Euro’s performance as well.  USD still has room to run but it is getting steep in the broader picture and so I think that is worth considering if holding positions.  Eventually, but not anytime soon, I expect we see UsdChf 0850 again.

[GVI Forex 2]

First thing I do when starting my day is to treat my platform as a heatmap to see where flows are going.

EURUSD steady as EUR up on key crosses (vs. GBP, JPY, CHF)

GBPUSD down – 2nd consecutive month of negative GDP

US bond yields steady but up sharply on the week… USDJPY and USDCHF up

[SF Monedge]

SO FAR entering the week.  I like Australian Dollar, Sterling, to a lesser extent Swiss Franc, and depending on a few things Euro on dips but my preferred side with that one still is the sell side. The buy side of Yen pairs is the best for me entering the week.  UsdChf is bottoming in likelihood, but there could be another little stop run downhill prior from here.

[Mtl JP]

USDCHF 8885

what is next ?  tia

[SF Monedge]

Sell side of UsdChf and UsdSgd around current market could get legs.  Not very enthusiastic about it because they are in a buy cycle but the prices have reached potential turning spots even if very temporarily.

[SF Monedge]

I’m out of the UsdChf buy side small +.  Franc futures are fairly sturdy.

[SF Monedge]

The standout positive I see today is the president of Mexico stating a tariff war can be averted since her meeting with Trump.  The other wars are still present and it appears the Lebanon ceasefire has already been breached.  So the unsettled Geo condition prevails for now.  All things considered I am patiently waiting for UsdChf to pull up for a sell side entry but not sure we get enough movement today.

One might expect a stock picking environment today.

[SF Monedge]

I like the sell side of UsdChf about 20 pts higher from current market (8880) if it gets there and you are not already in and roughly 40 pts lower or more.  Dominant cycle in Franc futures is the sell side with the intermediate cycle in buy mode.

[SF Monedge]

Dominant cycle in UsdChf (Dollar vs Swiss Franc) is the buy side and currently rebalancing from the recent run up largely on Geo concerns.  The next cycle is a buy side entry and you should be in good shape anywhere from 8840.  It would require something significant to change that.

[SF Monedge]

Nothing has changed in the dominant US Dollar dynamic.  The market is simply rebalancing after yesterday’s run.  There are good buy side trades coming up if you are patient.  Use USDSgd 1.3430 as a reference point of where larger sized entities maybe.  And if you do not trade UsdChf (Franc) you can use it as a guage as well with an eye on 8830.  On a fundamental basis, yesterday’s run was fundamental news driven but without proof, hence the rebalancing.  In time markets will reconsider and make the “what if” adjustment right back up.  Give it time.  I scored/booked 295 points since Sunday in multiple currency pairs, I am fairly precise right now.

[SF Monedge]

I just closed sell side positions of EurJpy, EurUsd, AudUsd, UsdSingapore, and a buy side UsdChf right here, and a sell EurGbp all in the money.   These levels as I type are areas where I believe there may be adjustment flows and so it is back to a game of patience.  Prefer buy side of US Dollar and the sell side of everything else so a matter of waiting for these markets to rebalance a bit.

Had a sell USdPeso but did not fill, not confident we see decent re-entry levels until tomorrow.

Honor the Dollar.

[SF Monedge]

I like the buy side of UsdChf here in the 8850 area although it is vital to bear in mind that may be against the grain of Geo oriented risk.

[GVI Forex 2]

Opening week gaps

Filled: USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDJPY

Unfilled: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, US stock indices

[SF Monedge]

Something to consider is the cycling of big money.  Today they are buying Dow stocks ahead of a Friday with a US holiday and major Geo risk.  That is driving some currencies down which would otherwise move in tandem, but the money is not as happy outward with those currencies as they are with a 2025 stock rally.

There should be a delayed reaction which would support the sell side of UsdChf and other safe haven plants beginning either in Asia or Europe tonight.

Euro will likely not receive the same benefit as Swiss (futures especially) and so I am not biting here on any bear trap setup, although I might in other conditions.  Better play, at least for me is the buy side of Swiss itself and Yen itself.

[SF Monedge]

Beginning to scale in the sell side of UsdChf.

[SF Monedge]

Due to the wonderful development of Ukraine using long range US missiles (no comment) my preference for now is the sell side of UsdChf and UsdJpy.

[SF Monedge]

UsdChf should stop selling around 8820