[SF Monedge]

R/R on UsdChf sell side is decent at current levels (8970-8980). You either get a good one or the entire dynamic changing to a long USD overall again which sticks increases.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

Supports at : 0.90150 , 0.89900 , 0.89500 & 0.89100

Resistances at : 0.90500 , 0.91050 , 0.91600 & 0.92150

Possible correction underway, but be aware of today’s data.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

Supports at : 0.90250 , 0.89900 & 0.89700

Resistances at : 0.90500, 0.91000 & 0.91450

Angle is pretty Bullish, but do not expect it to go straight UP- rapid corrections are always possible with this pair.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

Supports at : 0.90250 , 0.90000 & 0.89550

Resistances at : 0.90500 , 0.90750 & 0.91000

Bullish Pattern

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF DAILY CHART – KEY TRENDLINE

 

Building further momentum (9 green daily candles in a row) following the .8992 break.

Now threatening the key trendline, a break exposes key levels above .91 and ,92.

Expect support as long as it trades aboive .8992-00

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 YEAR BOND YIELD – PRICE IS INVERSE WITH YIELDS

As seen on this chart, bond is falling in price and yield is rising.

10-year 4.479%, +13.6bps

As I noted, FX is following with the dollar firmer

USDJPY extending its high, USDCHF extending its high above .90

EURUSD easing but gaps (1.074 and 1.0714)yet to be filled.

US equities are following lower as well.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY edging higher towards its 161.28 high as European and US bond yields trade sharply higher

USDCHF us up the most today on easing risk

[SF Monedge]

UsdChf – As long as 8980 stays relatively (give it a little room) intact the pair is still bid overall.  Better bet might be EurChf if you are thinking short side because, in the end, the FED rate equation has not changed and that favors US Dollar.  The problem is that stocks aren’t visibly rattled headed into the weekend and that bid has not changed either, and Euro is highly correlated with stocks.  Use it as a risk management play because in logical terms, there is an abundance of global risk at present, including the element of terrorism with the US headed into its Independence Day celebration next week.  Wait for the last second so you don’t get juked by some risk hungry larger size entities.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF 4 HOUR CHART – .9000 LOOMS?

Currently trapped between .8942-52 and .8983-93, closer to the top end with .9000 looming.

[SF Monedge]

Explanation for UsdChf sell is as follows and a comment on Amazing Trader:  This market is not going to test the fence much before PCE tomorrow (barring a post-debate rash).  They may well challenge the figure (9000) but not with much conviction one would think and so are widespread algorithms in use on an automated scale by banks in current market conditions.  Therefore, and considering I am in a contra-trade mood this week, shorting dollar.  Verifiably 9/10 of my approach, like most CTA’s is to trade with momentum not against it.  At times it may apply though.

I have my own system, however …. If you look closely at Amazing Trader, it will verify what and what is not proper momentum entry.  For anyone, regardless of expertise level, that is of immense value.

[SF Monedge]

JP – Too many truffles and caviar goes to the head and may be a root cause of … “Catch me if you can” syndrome.  Side note, I just made the forever preached against and forbidden “anger trade” in UsdChf (sell side).  If it wins and no one realizes the crime I will claim excellence.  Like Janet.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

Resistances : 0.89850 , 0.89950 & 0.90450

Supports : 0.89500 , 0.89200 & 0.88750

Now this pair’s faith directly depends on EURUSD – If EUR losses footing at 1.06500 a big slide begins and USDCHF will have to follow the suit (in the opposite direction of course ), like it or not.

However, if EUR starts turning Up, this will be just a correctional move , before it continues the journey to 0.85500

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

Resistances at : 0.89900 , 0.90250 & 0.91900

Supports at  : 0.89450 , 0.89150 & 0.88700

See how my “historical” trend line worked…now it all looks very logical and even expected.

[SF Monedge]

Side note..resting long UsdChf 8890 area, high risk, very agressive, tight stop due to data pending, already long from last week so would simply be an addition.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

As you can see, my hypothetical trend line ( historical angles and all J held nicely so far.

Supports at : 0.89200 , 0.88950 & 0.88450

Resistances at : 0.89500 , 0.89750 & 0.89900/0.89000

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

Supports at 0.88750 & 0.88450

Resistances at 0.89150 , 0.89400 & 0.89750

That support line you see is a Clone – historical angles that are used when the pair is moving Up .

So it is only an indication of what might serve as a support.

Also, it is now wide enough to expect it to hold for awhile.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF 4 HOUR CHART – FX RATE PROTESTR?

 

 

The SNB decisiob to cut interest rates was proably partly in trsponse to the recent appreciation of the CHF/

As this chart shiws, .8992 is the key level that would need to be broken to break the downtrend (trendline as well).

In any case, the rate cut has restored a 20way risk

[SF Monedge]

If you are just itching to sell UsdChf for some reason(s) I would not even begin to think of it until here a 8960 area

[SF Monedge]

I like the bid on UsdSingapore and UsdChf

[Belgrade Bobby]

Table of current retail positions

EURUSD :

Short 78% Long 22%

USDJPY :

Short 60% Long 40%

USDCHF :

Short 35% Long 65%

GBPUSD :

Short 75% Long 25%

[SF Monedge]

Fed stance on higher for longer is not changing any time soon without something dramatic.  The bid on UsdCad and UsdChf especially have been good to monedge and look bright going forward.

[SF Monedge]

Among other things in our metrics..Puts are stronger than calls for Loonie so preference is the sell side up around current levels in futures and thebid on UsdChf spot.

[SF Monedge]

Rates are liking the bid here on UsdChf near the figure.

[SF Monedge]

UsdChf is reaching at these levels for the offers.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Weekly

Support at  0.91050 , 0.90750 , 0.90450

Resistance at 0.91550 , 0.92250 , 0.92450

Sharply Bullish – if above resistances targets 0.93700

[SF Monedge]

GVI – regarding Britain, forward rates for Euro are decidedly on the sell, and for Sterling they are overwhelmingly on the bid.  That is very unlikely to change today.  Market did nothing on this morning’s data.  Stocks are waiting for Nvidia.  The highly moderate bid tone in stocks anticipated pre-market did transpire but overall in a holding pattern.  Could be a 20 point range today in Euro for now likely.  Bought UsdChf last week per our discussion.  So far so good.

[GVI Forex 2]

In my USDCHF post (scroll below), I mentioned a 4-week high. It was not a random observation. The importance of the 4-week high or low is explained in the following:

The Four Week Trading Rule

The Four Week Trading Rule

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF 4 HOUR CHART – Underperformer but resistance looms

A tight range so far this week but USDCHF momentum is pointed up but faces layers of resistance until the .9224 high.

The significance of this level is it is a 4-week high, a break of which would be significant.

Expect support on dips as long as it stays above 9078

[SF Monedge]

Preference here for UsdChf is the short side to this point today.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX DAILY CHART – WHERE ARE THE FLOWS GOING?

 

While the US Dollar Index (USDX) closed about unchanged, the currency market traded mixed with EURUSD closing about unchanged, GBPUSD higher, and the CHF and JpY weaker. The star of the day was gold.

CLOSE VS PRIOR   % CHANGE
EURUSD    1..0869 VS 1.0865        +.03
USDJPY     155.65 VS 155.414         +.15
GBPUSD    1.2701 VS 1.2672          +.22
USDCAD    1.3615 VS 1.3612          -.02
AUDUSD     6692 VS .6682            +.16
USDCHF    .9092 VS .9061            +.34
XAUUSD     2515 VS 2377             +1.55

Do the math.

GBPJPY was the outperformer with GBPJPY coming in second.

XAUUSD outperformed all currencies with a wide margin and weakness in JpY and CHF suggests there might have been XAUJPY and XAUCHF carry trades involved.