[GVI Forex 2]

BoJ rate hike forecast

Fin X

[GVI Forex 2]

Low expectations so surprise would be something substantive that produces a breakthrough or a new round of talks while still an event risk that gives fuel to the hope crowd.

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News – 1st May 2026

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[GVI Forex 2]

No clues coming from the oil market which seems to be biding its time to see what happens to the no peace, no war stalemate.

XBRUAS                                                        XTIUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

BoJ intervention:

BoJ data for April 30th shows FX intervention of around JPY 5.4tln = approx $34.5 bln

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR

Failure to sustain the move above 4600-10 puts XAUUSD back on the defensive and dependent on 4539 and 4518 holding to keep the 4510 low from being tested.

Otherwise, range is 4510-4647 with lmited follow through while within it.

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

The dollar has so far traded a cautious holiday thinned (May 1) session as it feels the affects of yesterday’s month end sell-off, including BoJ intervention but so far seeing limited follow throough.

Price action in USDJPY suggests another round of BoJ intervention that found support on the sudden nosedive in the mid 155s again (157.33 => 155.48).

EURUSD has maintained its bid but so far unable to test 1.1750 (high 1.1748)

GBPUSD has maintained its bid around 1.36 but is no longer leading EURUSD as EURGBP has come off its overnight low following yesterday’s sharp month end fall.

Otherwise, markets have ignored the US-Iran war of words that still runs the risk of escalating once again.

EURUSD                                          GBPUSD                           USDJPY

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog

A must read for forex traders

Understanding Forex Intervention: Lessons from Japan’s Approach to the Yen

[GVI Forex 2]

COMING UP: Data: Japanese Tokyo CPI (Apr), Global Manufacturing Final PMIs (Apr), US ISM Manufacturing (Apr). Speakers: BoE’s Pill. Supply: Japan. Earnings: Chevron, Colgate, Exxon, Moderna, Estee Lauder, NatWest.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks up after mixed mega cap earnings and geopolitics

SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold up

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[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR:

Breakout: New record high

Watch 7200 as the pivotal level that needs to become support (actually 7197) to keep the bid in unchartered territory..

If 7200 becomes support, risk turns to 7250 with potential  for 7450.

Below 7200 cools

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR

Relinquished the leas to US500 as NAS100 only managed to retest its new record high at 27512 set earlier in the day.

In any case, risk on the upside while 27000+ although the double top bears watching.

[Mtl JP]

Fox alert
“SOON: President T to speak at the White House”

oil moving uP some already
suggests he wont “surrender” his war w/Iran

[GVI Forex 2]

With crude oil not actiung as an impediment (note correlations), US500 has broken through 7200 for a new record high. 7200 now becomes pivotal for US500 if it is to push higher into unchartered territory.

EURUSD                                           US500                                       XTIUSD

[GV World]

Apr 30 Pre-Market Earnings Release Stocks

(COP) ConocoPhillips fell after reporting first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.89 per share on revenue of $15.76 billion, down 7.8% year-over-year. Net income came in at $2.18 billion, while production averaged about 2.31 million barrels per day, slightly lower than last quarter. The company expects second-quarter production to range between 2.19 million and 2.22 million barrels per day.

(CAT) Caterpillar, Inc. rose after reporting first-quarter earnings of $5.54 per share on revenue of $17.4 billion, up 22% year-over-year. Net income came in at $2.55 billion, with strength in its construction and energy businesses, while the company returned $5.7 billion to shareholders and noted a record backlog supporting demand.

(VLO) Valero Energy Corporation reported first-quarter earnings of $4.22 per share on revenue of $32.4 billion, up 7% year-over-year. Results were supported by refining throughput of about 2.9 million barrels per day, with improved performance in its renewable diesel and ethanol segments.

[GV World]

Apr 30 Pre-Market Earnings Release Stocks

[GV World]

Apr 29 Post-Market Earnings Release Stocks

(MSFT) Microsoft Corp. rose after reporting fiscal third-quarter earnings of $4.27 per share on revenue of $82.9 billion, up 18% year-over-year. Cloud growth remained strong, with Azure rising 40% and Microsoft Cloud revenue reaching $54.5 billion, up 29%. The company also said it expects capital spending to exceed $40 billion next quarter and around $190 billion for the full year.

Shares slid 3.8% to $408.37 in early trading.

(AMZN) Amazon.com, Inc. reported first-quarter earnings of $2.78 per share on revenue of $181.5 billion, up 17% year-over-year. Growth was supported by AWS, with revenue up 28%, while net income reached $30.3 billion. The company guided second-quarter sales to between $194 billion and $199 billion, with operating income expected between $20 billion and $24 billion, and said capital spending totaled $44.2 billion as it continues investing heavily in AI.

(META) Meta Platforms, Inc. fell 10% after reporting first-quarter earnings of $10.44 per share on revenue of $56.3 billion, up 33% year-over-year. Excluding a tax benefit, earnings were $7.31 per share, while growth was supported by stronger ad sales.

[GV World]

Apr 29 Post-Market Earnings Release Stocks

[GVI Forex 2]

A must read for forex traders

Understanding Forex Intervention: Lessons from Japan’s Approach to the Yen

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR

What caugfht my eye was

1. Defense of 4500
2. Bounce above 4610
3. Upside capped by the trendline

For the rebound to gain momentum, the trendline needs to be broken although even then it would face a tough obsracle around 4700.

Below 4610 would cool the risk.

[GVI Forex 2]

For your blotte ( 6 weeks is a long way off)

r

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[GVI Forex 2]

As I said, watch EURGBP at month end

Month end ahead of the 3 PM Londoin Fix =>
‘
EURGBP pressured down… GBPUSD leading… EURUSD following with a lag..

EURUSD                                           EURGBP                           GBPUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

US EQUITY OPEN: META & MSFT weakness weighs on Tech as latest Mag-7 AAPL report M

STOCK SPECIFICS

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[Mtl JP]

what me worry ?

US 30-YR 4.981
US 10-YR 4.396

cost of money still too low by my estimate

[Mtl JP]

BoJ alleged intervention could not even hit mid-155

Odds are BoJ will have to deal with undesirable price action again

not a good idea to ty to screw players

–

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR

New record high (27512) and quick retreat needs to hold above 26895 to make it any more than a retracement

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR:

.For the lower high (7186) to turn into more, 7106 would need to be broken.

Otherwise, it is more consolidation while the record 7197 High stays untouched

[GVI Forex 2]

BoJ intervention confirmed (no surprise to us)

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[GVI Forex 2]

Spme took this as hawkish but still 6 weeks to go until the next meetiung.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP DAILY

EURGBP  is one of the more active pairs at month end, currently pressured on the downside but so far holding the”50″ level (8650)

.8650 likely pivotal, key support 8637

[Author]

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