[GVI Forex 2]

The U.S. jobs report will clearly dominate the day ahead for markets, but there’s been a hefty pullback in red-hot chip stocks around the world as the second half of the year gets underway.

Given the shortened week, quarter-end trading quirks and the looming payrolls report, it may be unwise to read too much into this week’s market moves, but it does appear there’s some degree of profit-taking and portfolio shuffling going on….(from Reuters US Morning Bid)

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 4.493% at 7:09:52 AM EDT

bessent’s likely nightmare is yield closing on 5%

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields ahead of NFP

[Mtl JP]

“plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose”
“everything that can be invented has been invented”

Jeff Cox
trying to explain upcoming climate change under warsh
Warsh faces multiple alternative inflation signs as Fed charts new course

[Mtl JP]

Forex2 10:06 re “DXY slips below the 101.00 handle, as the JPY strengthens on possible intervention.”

the joke:
Japan spent $74 billion propping up the yen. Investors say the real battle is with the Fed – Lee Ying Shan, cnbc

– The yen hit a 40-year low as investors questioned the impact of intervention.
– Intervention alone is unlikely to reverse losses, while wide U.S.-Japan rate differentials continue to support the dollar.
– Analysts say coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention would be more effective than unilateral action by Tokyo.

[Mtl JP]

BoJ & MoF “team” and their “intervention”
consider what, if anything, has changed:
– price level vs speed of price change
– blah-blah “warning” as a tool
– for their intervention to be meaningful it has to be co-ordinated w/bessent

now consider IF the intervention is a successful one

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News – 2nd July 2026

• Qatar and Pakistan mediators concluded separate meetings with US and Iranian negotiators in Doha, highlighting positive progress on issues related to the Islamabad MoU.
• US equity futures trade mixed, with the NQ weighed by tech selling in South Korean stocks.
• DXY slips below the 101.00 handle, as the JPY strengthens on possible intervention.
• Fixed income benchmarks trade on the softer side heading into the US jobs report; NFP expected at 110K.
• Crude benchmarks continue to trade lower, Brent -1.5%.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobs Report (Jun), Initial Jobless Claims, Speakers including ECB’s Cipollone, BoE’s Mann and Fed’s Daly.

 

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR

Tryimg to build momentum off higher lows (3942 and 3960) but needs to solidly reagain 4100 (high 4116) and then break 4144 for focus to shift away from 4000 and back to 4200.

Key to watch is US NFP and whether GOLD correlates with reaction in US bond yields.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR

Assuming the BoJ is behind the USDJPY sharp retreat, its goals should be

1) Break momentum (done)
2) Restore a 2-way risk (done)
3) Break key chart levels to allow technicals to take over (harder as there is not one obvious level that would turn the tide) sowould need to  keep trade under 162, which would put 160 on the radar.

Dilemma: What happens if NFP beats and US yields rise? Assume BoJ is lurking if USDJPY spikes higher.

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: GBP outperforming

Tug-of-war between EURUSD (lagging) and GBPUSD (up) after EURGBP breakdown

EURUSD: Currently in a 40 pip symmetric range either side of 1.14 (actual 1.1361-1.1439)

EURGBP: Breakdown through ..8595 opens a huge void to .8355, where .8500 is ikely a key non-technical level. While within .8500-.8600 look for .8550 to be pivotal as well.

GBPUSD: Rally off 1.3140, helped by the weaker EURGBP, so far holding a daily trendline. On the downside, 1.3273 was a breakout level and first level of meaningful support.

EURUSD (4 HOUR          EURGBP (WEEKLY)                GBPUSD (DAILY)

[GVI Forex 2]

<p style=”text-align: center;”>Forex Market Snapshot</p>
USD trading softer ahead of the US jobs report and a 3-day holiday weekend with the JPY and GBP outperforming while EURUSD lags on cross offsets.

USDJPY fall has raised talks of BoJ intervention on reports that it has chanbged tactics.

GBPUSD has extended start of the 2H26 rally with EURGBP extending its move down, which is helping to give GBPUSD a further lift up.

[ST London]

TOKYO – Japanese officials are abandoning their habit of telegraphing intervention risks, instead signalling a more targeted campaign to squeeze speculators and raise the cost of betting against the ​battered yen, two sources familiar with the matter said.

Departing from the calibrated jawboning that preceded previous bouts of intervention, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) could step in abruptly to wipe out ‌speculative yen positions, the sources said. Officials are also avoiding any suggestion of a specific “line in the sand” exchange-rate level that would trigger action…. Reuters

[GVI Forex 2]

COMING UP: Data: Australian Trade Balance (May), Swiss Inflation (Jun), EU Unemployment Rate (May), US Jobs Report (Jun), Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/27).

Speakers: ECB’s Elderson, Cipollone; BoE’s Mann; Fed’s Daly. Supply: Japan, Spain, France, UK

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Mag-7 outperforms amid semi & memory weakness ahead of US payrolls

SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar up, Gold up.

REAR VIEW: ISM mfg PMI misses; US ADP short of St. consensus; US Challenger job cuts ease in June; OPEC+ reportedly likely to raise oil output quotas for August by 188k BPD; Trump said okay with Iran talks going past August 18th deadline; EIA crude stocks draw less than expected; USTR’s Greer stated USMCA shifting to rolling talks and no renewal; BoE’s Bailey noted soft UK economy was the reason to hold rates; Softer-than-expected EZ Flash inflation; META reportedly building a cloud business to sell excess AI compute; Mixed NKE earnings

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: US500 and NAS100

A bit of a disappointing start to 2H26 with failures to stay above pivotal 7500 and 30K. Nas100 cvhart is nore bearish with all red candles since the high today.

Key supports to watch while below these pivotal levels: 6452 and 29677

Next key focus: US NFP then early exits ahead of a long holiday weekend.

US500                                                                     NAS100

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: US500 and NAS100

A bit of a disappointing start to 2H26 with failures to stay above pivotal 7500 and 30K. Nas100 cvhart is nore bearish with all red candles since the high today.

Key supports to watch while below these pivotal levels: 6452 and 29677

Next key focus: US NFP then early exits ahead of a long holiday weekend.

US500                                                                     NAS100

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields up today (curve steepens)

10 year                                                                             2 year

[Mtl JP]

Why bother yakking kevin ?

US Federal Reserve expected to decide on rate hike in four weeks, Warsh says – euronews

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: 2h26 choppy start

Some decoupling with oil prices continuing to slide, US stocks catch a bid, bond yields still up on the day,USD mixed, EURUSD and AUDUSD down on the day on softer crosses, GBP and JPY up on offsets.

EURUSD                                  US500                                           XTIUSD

[Mtl JP]

sometimes round numbers have tradeable power
sometimes they are an annecdote

Brent: 71.11 / WTI 68.06 lows so-far

[Mtl JP]

Chris Martenson:

How Much Longer Can the SPR Be Drained? (Spoiler: October 4th…or maybe July 10th)

“How much oil – and time – does the Strategic Petroleum Reserve have left? A lot of people have been guessing about it. I don’t really like guessing, so we’re going to go into the actual data as best we can.”

fwiw

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: Power of the crosses

As noted earlier, a wesker EURGBP was supporting GBPUSD while EURUSD lagged or diverged.

This continues to be the flavor of the day for forex with EURGBP extending its low below .8595-02, break of which exposes a huge void of key levels while below it, creating a tug-of-war between EURUSD (upside capped) and GBPUSD (supported)

EURUSD                              EURGBP                                         GBPUSD

[Mtl JP]

talk or no talk, DJ aiming for great outcome for murrican people

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: US500 and NAS100

Both consolidating after testing downside earlier with no change in focus:

US500 7500 and NAS100 30K both pivotal, needing to become solid support for upside to regain momentum.

US500 NAS100

[GVI Forex 2]

US ISM PMI

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Jittery markets seem to be following the move in US yields (2-year dip) as central as major central bankers speak at the Sintra Forum.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBP takes a hit mn Bailey comments (briefly so far)

BoE Governor Bailey says we have a softening economy and labour market and was the reason to not raise rates; focused on the risks of the pass-through of the energy crisis

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields ticking up following this headline

Revelio Labs Nonfarm Payrolls (June): +258.5k (prev. +123.7k, rev. +110.8k)

This gain was driven by significant job gains in the Public Administration, Health Care and Social Assistance, and Professional and Business Services sectors.

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 30 MINUTE

Bounce back above 4000 after a pause above the 3942 low. No apparent trigger and would need to break 4034 to build momentum for a run at 4067.

Otherwise, focus stays on 4000.

[GVI Forex 2]

<p style=”text-align: center;”>US ADP miss (not a good predictor of NFP)</p>
<p style=”text-align: center;”>US ADP Employment Change (Jun) 98K (Prev. 122K, Low. 78K, High. 134K)</p>

[Author]

Posts