[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update

Reaction to Trump presser comments saw buyers step in at the lows despite more sabre rattling

EURUSD following GBPUSD with a lag as EURGBP falls

EURUSD                                   US500                                          XTIUSD

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 4.587% +0.058
–
13:00 bessent’s dept peddles off 39Bln of 10-Year paper
14:00 FOMC minutes

Cox suggested earlier that ‘Fed meeting minutes to show ‘family fight’ over rates. The squabble could drag on for a while”

for the moment players appear to have tamed their earlier enthusiastic bets for higher rates

[Mtl JP]

EUR/USD 1.14
–
bias prudently bearish
Res 1.1450-80
Sup: recent lows around 1.1380-1.1370

[Mtl JP]

Japan in Toilet

print more ?  are you kidding ?  or not ?

[GVI Forex 2]

Alert

President TRrump’s news conference at the NATO SUmmit is duer to begin shortly.

[GVI Forex 2]

Crude oil spikes to new highs for the day, waiting to see any ripple effects elsewhere

“Iran to close Strait of Hormuz, strike twice as many targets in response to any US attack”, Press TV reports citing a source; Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz under its own arrangements, as per the Islamabad MoU (Newsquawk)

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update

Markets shrugging off latest flurry of threats by Prez T as a wait-and-see approach sets in to see if there is a tit-for-tat or escalation of hostilties.

NAS100 trying to regain 29K but would need to regain 29181 to negate the last leg down or risk stays on the downside.

EURUSD                                           NAS100                              XTIUSD

.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR

Bearish pattern playing out with a 7426 target tested (low 7420).

Key level to watch is 7500, which extended its trade around it to 6 days in a row.

If This level doesn’t trade tomorrow it would be a negative sign but only a firm break of 7420 would build momentum to the downside.

[GVI Forex 2]

[MARKET UPDATE]: Crude extends gains and equities fall as US President Trump says the US will probably hit Iran again tonight (Newsquawk)

[GVI Forex 2]

US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: AVGO, AAPL, XOM, PENG, FCEL, RIVN, KRUS, DLTR, AA, BBWI

ES -0.6% NQ -0.8% RTY -0.6%

Trump says Iran ceasefire is over “I think”; the US has “wasted a lot of time” with Iran; “I do not want to deal with Iran”.

• AVGO -0.1%: Apple to increase spend with AVGO to produce more than 15bln US chips
• XOM +1.6%: Expects higher liquids prices to lift earnings by $3.5-3.9bln vs Q1
• PENG +4.2%: EPS, rev. & guidance beat
• FCEL -19.1%: Announced $200M common stock offering
• RIVN -4.7%: 75mln share secondary priced at $15.50 (closed Tue at $16.49)
• KRUS -9.7%: Cut FY26 revenue outlook
• DLTR +1.5%: Upgraded at Raymond James & Goldman Sachs
• AA -1.6%: Downgraded at Morgan Stanley to ‘Equal Weight’ from ‘Overweight’
• BBWI -4.3%: Downgraded at Goldman Sachs to ‘Sell’ from ‘Neutral’

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Adam Global]

ßitcoin 📈 bouncing above $62K after reversing below 📉$65K

[GVI Forex 2]

Now some relief reaction to what wasn’t said

[MARKET UPDATE]: Modest reversal in risk sentiment amid reports Trump did not repeat the termination language around the US-Iran interim deal during the NATO summit

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Adam Global]

GOLD 💛 breaking below 4055.00 📉 as sellers are caught off guard by the recent bearish trend now everyone is selling & aiming for 4000.00 🎯

[Adam Global]

Us100Cash 📉 breaking below $29K

Everybody’s looking @ that $28 350 point 👉 for support 📈

[Adam Global]

WTI (cash) has climbed back towards the juncture of its 20- and 200-day simple moving averages around $75, after finding support at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the December-March upleg just below $70. A further escalation could see the $80 level being tested again.

[GVI Forex 2]

Oil prices jumped on Wednesday after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh military strikes, the most significant escalation since the two sides agreed to a ceasefire last month. President Donald Trump also said that their memorandum of understanding was “over”.

U.S. strikes against Iranian targets on Tuesday came after several oil tankers were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Washington’s move prompted Iranian attacks on U.S. bases in the region.

Meanwhile, global stock markets looked shaky as chip shares continued to sell off on Wednesday, dragging on major indexes in Asia. South Korea’s chip-heavy KOSPI index has now slipped into bear market territory, falling 20% from a record close in late June. Of course, it’s still up more than 70% this year…Full repirt on Reuters US Morning Bid

[Mtl JP]

OIL 74.92 +4.48 +6.36%
US 10-YR 4.577% +0.048
LAST | 5:56:59 AM EDT

[Mtl JP]

9:23 // …”crude oil and US bond yields as the drivers” …

I suggest that the driver is Prez T screaming that the “deal with Iran is over”

US releases official agreement with Iran. Read the 14-point text

particularly points 1) and 5)

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

The dollar has firmed as risk off grips global markets.

• EURUSD has been a reluctant follower with 1.14 pivotal on its downsaide after a brief blip below
• USDJPY firming with risk of BoJ intervention as the recently set 40 year high at 163.84 looms.
• CAD is outperforming on the back of firmer crude oil
• CHF is oputperforming as well on safe haven flows

Watch crude oil and US bond yields as the drivers.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD DAILY

Ready for a breakout as CAD benefits from the spike in crude oil?

The current pattern around 1.42 extended to 12 days in a row but at risk of being broken (tomorrow) if the market can make a firm break of the 1.4149 bottom of its range (next support 1.3950-1.4000)

If not, upside stays limited unless 1.42 prints again with price action subject to the whims of the oil market.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR

On the defensive again as yields rise.

Dependent now on 4057 and 4026 holding to prevent a fresh run at 4000 and below.

Back above 4134 would be needed to break current momentum

[GVI Forex 2]

Here are the posts that saw an immediate  risk off reaction

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

[MARKET UPDATE] Broad risk off as Trump says Iran ceasefire is over “I think”; Brent rises $2/bbl, stocks slip and USD/yields rise

EURUSD                                      US500                                        XTIUSD

[Mtl JP]

GVI 9:54 / is that like “the beating will continue until morale improves” or “daddy may I please get another” ? What is next daddy ?

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 4.557% +0.028 LAST | 8:09:05 PM EDT

for me … in the right direction

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Snapshot

Cautious start, US500 7500 just printed for 7th day in a row watch oil, yields and reaction to news.

EURUSD                                 US500                                       XTIUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

A US official says the strike on Iran was a punitive action, not a proportional respponse, and that the operation will not end in the short term, CNN reports (Newsquawk)

[GVI Forex 2]

US CENTOM announces that forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

COMING UP: Data: Swedish Inflation Prelim. (Jun), US Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2) Events: RBNZ Policy Announcement (Jul), NBP Policy Announcement (Jul), NBH Minutes (Jun), Fed Minutes (Jun), NATO Ankara Summit

Speakers: RBNZ’s Breman; US President Trump Supply: Australia, UK, Germany, US  (Newsquawk)

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks hit as memory names slump and oil rallies on geopolitics

SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down.

REAR VIEW: Iran attacks ships in Strait of Hormuz, including Qatari & Saudi vessel; US Treasury revokes Iran-waiver; US say Iran actions will be met with consequences; Japan Economy Minister rejects reports of pushing for lower rates; Deepseek is reportedly developing its own AI chip; AMZN files for 8-parter; US trade deficit widens; Fed’s Williams said monpol is in a good place; UK Reform leader Farage resigns as MP, calling Clacton-on-Sea by-election; NY Fed SCE rise; Stellar 3-year note auction.

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Author]

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