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Fed Policy-Setting Meeting Begins as US Equity Futures Decline Pre-Bell
US equity futures were down before Tuesday’s opening bell as the Federal Reserve begins its meeting to discuss monetary policy while the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict continued to dampen investor sentiment.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures, S&P 500 futures, and Nasdaq futures were all down nearly 0.5%.
Investors continued to monitor the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, which has already entered its fifth day as the two countries continued to exchange attacks.
The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee kicks off its two-day meeting Tuesday.
Oil prices were higher, with front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent crude up 1.6% at $74.37 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude 1.5% higher at $71.28 per barrel.
The May retail sales report, released at 8:30 am ET, showed a 0.9% month-over-month decrease in retail sales following a 0.1% decline in April, compared with estimates compiled by Bloomberg for a 0.6% decrease. Import prices were flat in May versus estimates for a 0.2% decline, while export prices decreased 0.9% against estimates for a 0.2% decline.
The May industrial production report, due at 9:15 am ET, is expected to show a flat reading for the month to match the April report.
The housing market index, slated for 10 am ET, is expected to come in at 36 for June versus a 34 level in May. Meanwhile, no change is expected for business inventories for April.
In other world markets, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.6% higher, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended 0.3% lower, and China’s Shanghai Composite finished 0.04% lower. Meanwhile, the UK’s FTSE 100 was down 0.2%, and Germany’s DAX index was 0.9% lower in Europe’s early afternoon session.
In equities, Verve Therapeutics VERV shares were 76% higher pre-bell after the company agreed to be acquired by Eli Lilly LLY for up to $1.30 billion. BGSF BGSF stock was up 33% after the company said late Monday it has agreed to sell its Professional Division to Inspyr Solutions for $99 million.
On the losing side, shares of Enphase Energy ENPH, SolarEdge Technologies SEDG, and Sunrun RUN were down 20%, 31%, 36%, respectively, after the US Senate Finance Committee proposed a phase-out of solar and wind energy tax credits by 2028 as part of changes made to President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill.
Nikkei 225 chart
DAX
After reaching 23.360 low on Friday, Dax rebounded today sharply – high 23.711.00
Resistances above the head are at : 23.735, 23.905 & 24.050
Supports: 23.505, 23.360 & 23.200
Most important is for Dax to stabilise above 23.200 and to slowly start turning Up again.
However, loss of that support would open a can of worms and for now I wouldn’t like to go there 😀
European Equities Close Lower in Friday Trading; EU Employment Rate Increases in Q1
The European stock markets closed lower in Friday trading as the Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 0.97%, Germany’s DAX was down 1.1%, the FTSE 100 decreased 0.36%, France’s CAC 40 fell 1.04% and the Swiss Market Index declined 1.6%.
European Union employment rate for people between 20 and 64 slightly increased to 76.1% in Q1, up from 76% in the previous quarter, according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU. Labor market slack also saw a marginal rise of 0.1 percentage points, reaching 10.9% of the extended labor force in the same period.
The euro area’s trade surplus in goods with the rest of the world significantly narrowed to 9.9 billion euros ($11.4 billion) in April 2025, a notable drop from 37.3 billion euros in March, Eurostat said. This decline was primarily driven by a sharp reduction in a surplus of the chemicals sector.
Great Britain saw overseas visitors making 10.4 million trips and spending an estimated 10.2 billion pounds ($13.8 billion) in Q3 2024, according to the Office of National Statistics. However, outbound travel by Great Britain residents during the same period was higher, with 29 million visits abroad and expenditures reaching an estimated 28.4 billion pounds.
In Q4 2024, inbound visits to Great Britain dipped to 9.3 million with spending of 7.4 billion pounds, and outbound trips also decreased to 20.3 million, with residents spending 17.3 billion pounds.
Wholesale selling prices in Germany rose by 0.4% in May compared to the previous year, a deceleration from the 0.8% increase seen in April, according to the Federal Statistical Office. The gains were driven by a 4.3% jump in food beverages and tobacco prices, especially coffee, tea, cocoa, and spices.
Producer prices for agricultural products in Germany rose by 3.2% in April compared to the previous year, driven by a significant 9.8% increase in prices for animals and animal products, according to the Federal Statistical Office. Plant product prices declined 6.3% year-on-year, primarily due to a substantial drop in table potato prices.
Stoxx Europe 600
DAX
In the aftermath of last night’s news, Dax just slides down…
Now technical view is secondary – still works, but levels might be quite stretched.
Supports: 23.265, 23.155 & 22.870
Resistances: 23.700, 23.835 & 23.920
Now we can only hope that this shebang is not going to end up like in April of this year.
I would settle for 22.400 as a good bet for support, but stays to be seen
If however it does prove to be a strong support, DAX would be in a perfect position to advance, once this newest mess is over.
DAX
As I said yesterday : 23.145 is a target in this moment, and has to hold for Dax to be able to return in the Bull run.
Now from here things are starting “ to be or not to be”
If Dax doesn’t return tomorrow up to test 24.200 , but breaks below 23.145 , it will target directly and important support at 23.200 0 one that separates the Upwards channel in Upper and Lower one.
Below road would be open for attack of 22.350 – Above Dax would be able to test the all time high.
DAX
Dax tried to avoid deeper correction, but failed to overcome resistance at 24.150
Now all eyes are on support at 23.950
This is going to be one bearish close for Dax , and the only question is if the support at 23.750 will be able to provide some footing.
23.145 is a target in this moment, and has to hold for Dax to be able to return in the Bull run.
DAX
Dax tested the support at 23.965 and on the first attack it held.
If that support lost, situation will turn sour for the DAX – at least for a couple of days.
Resistances are now at 24.200 & 24.350
Another support might provide footing – 23.750
Right now the direction is Down – supports are targets
DAX
DAX once again failed to overcome serious resistance at 24.500, and now is testing supports.
Supports: 24.095, 23.965 & 23.750
This last one – 23.750 represents a level that needs to hold for DAX to continue being bullish on the daily.
If below, risks revisiting 23.150 and getting into the full correction mode.
Global Markets Mixed – U.S. Futures Slightly Higher Ahead of Jobs Data
U.S. stock futures were modestly higher early in European trading, with the focus on monthly jobs data for May later.
Stocks on Wall Street fell Thursday, with Tesla a major drag amid the intensifying war of words between President Trump and Elon Musk. That took the gloss off what Trump described as a “very positive conclusion” to a phone call with China’s Xi Jinping.
Stocks in Asia and Europe were mixed Friday, while the dollar rose a touch and Treasury yields edged lower.
· U.S. futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.4% and futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.4%. Nasdaq stock futures rose 0.4%.
· Asian indexes closed mixed, with profit-taking setting in for some markets that have gained in recent sessions. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index gained 0.5%, whereas Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.4%. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite was flat. South Korea’s Kospi was closed for a public holiday. India’s Sensex rose after the country’s central bank surprised the market with a jumbo 50 basis points rate cut.
· In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 was flat in morning trading. France’s CAC 40 declined 0.1% and Germany’s DAX fell 0.2% after closing at a new record high Thursday. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.2% after closing at its second-highest-ever level in the previous session.
· The two-year Treasury yield was last down one basis point to 3.913%, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell about 0.5 basis point to 4.388%, according to LSEG. “We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to hover around 4.50%, and the two-year yield to decline towards 3.50%,” said SEB Research chief strategist Jussi Hiljanen in a note, resulting in a widening gap between short- and long-dated Treasury yields.
· The dollar recovered modestly after dropping to a six-week low against a basket of currencies and the euro on Thursday. That followed weak U.S. data and the European Central Bank signaling that it is nearing the end of interest-rate cuts. The DXY dollar index was up 0.1% to 98.827 against a basket of major currencies after hitting a six-week low of 98.351 on Thursday.
· Eurozone government-bond yields stabilized after a selloff during European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s press conference Thursday when she signaled that Thursday’s widely-anticipated 25-basis-point interest-rate cut took its policy stance close to the end of the easing cycle. The 10-year German Bund yield was recently down 1 basis point to 2.580%, according to Tradeweb
· Gold futures were up 0.25% at $3,383.50 a troy ounce and on track to finish the week higher on safe-haven buying and a weaker U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, oil prices dipped but were on track for a weekly gain of more than 3%, boosted by the positive noises from Trump and Xi Jinping over trade talks. Brent crude was last down 0.6% to $64.95 a barrel.
Hangseng Index
European Equities Close Higher in Wednesday Trading; European Commission Adopts Water Resilience Strategy
The European stock markets closed higher in Wednesday trading as the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.49%, Germany’s DAX was up 0.8%, the FTSE 100 increased 0.14%, France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.53%, and the Swiss Market Index rose 0.47%.
The European Commission adopted a new water resilience strategy aiming to secure clean, affordable water, restore the water cycle and foster a sustainable water economy. The commission said that the strategy consists of over 30 actions to tackle climate impacts and boost competitiveness.
Euro area bank interest rates generally declined in April, with composite costs of borrowing for new corporate loans decreasing by 14 basis points to 3.79% while new household mortgage rates fell 5 basis points to 3.27%, the European Central Bank said. Deposit rates for both corporations and households also saw reductions, reflecting a broader easing in borrowing and deposit conditions across the euro area.
In the UK, sickness absence fell to 2% in 2024 down 0.3 percentage points from 2023, with 148.9 million working days lost, according to the Office for National Statistics. Minor illnesses remain the top reason. Women, older workers, those with long-term conditions, part-time staff, and public sector employees showed higher rates.
The number of income millionaires in Germany increased to 34,500 in 2021, up 18% from 2020, Germany’s Federal Statistical Office said. While inflation explains some of this, the growth still outpaced historical averages, and most millionaires primarily earned income from businesses.
Shares of B&M European Value Retail slipped over 13% in Wednesday trading on the FTSE after the company reported preliminary fiscal 2025 results. B&M European Value Retail said group revenue for the 52 weeks ended March 29 increased to 5.57 billion British pounds ($7.55 billion) from 5.37 billion pounds a year earlier, while adjusted earnings declined to 0.34 pounds per share from 0.36 pounds a year earlier.
STMicroelectronics shares were up 11% on the Paris exchange after CEO Jean-Marc Chery said the company expects 5,000 employees to leave in the next three years, including 2,800 jobs eliminated earlier this year. About 2,000 workers will leave STMicroelectronics due to attrition
FTSE 100 chart
DAX – New High
And DAX took out 24.000 again, made a marginally new high – 24.346, but was rejected up there once again.
I was Bullish DAX all along as many of you knows, but now I am starting to be cautious.
Right now that resistance line above the head is at 24.400 and unless DAX goes above it and finds a footing, things can turn sour very quickly.
24.200 & 24.000 Serve as supports in this moment, and have to hold for DAX to continue Up.
We have to see how it is going to close today….
DAX
Once it lost 24.000 Dax entered into a correction
Question here : is it going to be short lived one or a full blown??
As long as DAX stays above 23.600 there is a chance of bouncing Up above 24.050 and attacking previous high and resistance line at 24.350
However, loss of 23.600 would indicate that it targets 23.000
If nothing changes till close, we are not going to have any decent telltale for tomorrow.
DAX
Dax is trying to consolidate just above 24.000 and so far holds above it
In my opinion, one quick and not too brutal correction might serve it better…
Resistances: 24.180, 24.280 & 24.325
Supports: 23.915, 23.550 & 23.050
It’s end of the week and end of the month, so just holding onto 24.000 is a positive sign.
However, I would love to see it tests the supports
Trade Outlook Elevates European Bourses Midday
European bourses tracked moderately higher midday Thursday after the US Court of International Trade in New York on Wednesday ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority in imposing a broad range of import levies.
Bank and tech stocks led broad market gains on the continent.
Investors also eyed Wall Street futures signalling green, and higher closes overnight on Asian exchanges.
In economic news, Spain’s seasonally adjusted retail sales rose by 0.7% in April from March, the National Statistics Institute reported.
The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 Index was up 0.3% mid-session.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index was up 0.8%, and the Stoxx 600 Banks Index gained 0.8%.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Oil and Gas Index was up 0.2%, and the Stoxx 600 Europe Food and Beverage Index rose 0.1%.
The REITE, a European REIT index, rose 0.5%, and the Stoxx Europe 600 Retail Index advanced 0.2%.
On the national market indexes, Germany’s DAX was up 0.3%, and the FTSE 100 in London was steady. The CAC 40 in Paris was up 0.7%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 gained 0.3%.
Yields on benchmark 10-year German bonds were steady, near 2.57%.
Front-month North Sea Brent crude oil futures were up 0.4% to $64.58 per barrel.
The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index was down 2.5% to 18.84, indicating below-average volatility for European stock markets in the next 30 days, a positive signal. A reading above 20 indicates choppier markets ahead, while below 20 suggests calmer exchanges.
SXXP Index
DAX
So Dax managed to break above 24.200 – level alone is not much of importance per se, but fact that it is the channel upper line makes it significant.
This close slightly below 24K is signalling a probable correction under way.
As long as that correction doesn’t go below 23K, Dax will be able to go over that resistance / channel line – mind you, it is slowly going higher.
Current supports:
23.985, 23.635 & 23.350
Global Markets
Overnight review
U.S. stock futures pointed to a slightly weaker open, while markets in Asia and Europe were mixed ahead of Nvidia’s earnings later Wednesday.
Long-dated Treasury yields were on the rise again after a weak auction of Japanese government bonds resurfaced investors’ concerns about government debt.
· Weak demand at Japan’s 40-year government bond auction sparked a renewed jump in ultra-long JGB yields, with some spillover to other markets. “Global yields are giving back some of their gains this morning,” said market strategists at Deutsche Bank Research. The 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields were last up four basis points to 4.474% and 4.981%, respectively, according to LSEG.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda earlier pledged to closely monitor moves in the super-long bond sector. The 30-year Japanese bond yield last traded at 2.905%, up six basis points, while the 40-year yield rose four basis points to 3.348%.
· U.S. stock futures pointed to a slightly weaker open after the S&P 500 rose 2.1%, its biggest jump since May 12, and other major indexes gained in Tuesday’s session. Early in Europe, S&P 500 futures nudged down 0.1% with similar moves in Dow Jones Industrials. Nasdaq futures were flat ahead of Nvidia’s earnings.
· Stocks in Asia ended mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was flat amid focus on the Bank of Japan’s policy strategy. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.5% and China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite held steady. South Korea’s Kospi ended 1.2% higher. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.1% in morning trading, France’s CAC 40 increased 0.1% and Germany’s DAX climbed 0.2%. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.2%.
· The DXY Dollar Index was recently up 0.1% to 99.6650 against a basket of major currencies after a rebound in the Conference Board’s U.S. consumer confidence survey for May. Still, the dollar continues to face downside risks in the near term as concerns over slowing U.S. economic growth and the budget deficit persist, ING analyst Francesco Pesole said in a note.
· Brent crude rose 0.7% to $64.02 a barrel. Gold futures were recently up 0.6% at $3,319.30 a troy ounce, recouping some losses incurred earlier in the week.
HANGSENG Index
DAX
As predicted – DAX closed yesterday just above 24.010 and the result is a new high – 24.230
Resistance was broken, but now what’s left is for Dax to close above 24.200 to continue the rally tomorrow.
Supports: 24.100, 24.000 & 23.950
If this scenario works, first big target on the road is at 26.500
DAX Ends 1.68% Higher at 24027.65
The DAX is up 398.07 points or 1.68% today to 24027.65
· Third highest close in history
· Largest one day point and percentage gain since Friday, May 2, 2025
· Snaps a two trading day losing streak
· Up 10 of the past 13 trading days
· Off 0.39% from its record close of 24122.40 hit Wednesday, May 21, 2025
· Today’s closing value is the third highest this year
· Off 0.39% from its 52-week high of 24122.40 hit Wednesday, May 21, 2025
· Up 38.58% from its 52-week low of 17339.00 hit Monday, Aug. 5, 2024
· Rose 27.98% from 52 weeks ago
· Off 0.39% from its 2025 closing high of 24122.40 hit Wednesday, May 21, 2025
· Up 22.15% from its 2025 closing low of 19670.88 hit Wednesday, April 9, 2025
· Month-to-date it is up 6.80%
· Year-to-date it is up 4118.51 points or 20.69%
Source: Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet
DAX
After a sharp dive caused by Trump’s another tariffs threat , this time towards EU, Dax regained its posture and now is lingering just below the resistance at 24.200
Pattern wise, in case it closes today above 24.010 it will have a chance to break it tomorrow in one go.
Supports: 23.930, 23.680 & 23.350
DAX
This is one pretty bullish close on DAX
It should attack tomorrow 24.200 resistance ,again and if manages above it, the rally that started in early April will be – just a beginning .
Supports: 23.930, 23.845 & 23.650
Two levels on the down side are important if DAX starts the correction:
23.450 & 22.975 – later one being of utmost importance for DAX now.
DAX
Is Dax losing some of it’s Mojo??
It failed to overcome that resistance – channel line at 24.150, and now it all comes back to Supports.
Supports: 23.760, 23.475 & 23.350
If it gets into a correction phase, Major support comes at 22.965
But let’s see how this day ends – spark above 24.015 would put it back on offensive.
