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Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows
… the dollar trading mixed after falling earlier… EURUSD tested 1.1750 before backing off… JPY outperforming but USDJPY off its low
US stocks up… US500 tests 6200+
Gold rebounds
US bond yields down
Month.quarter end … look for some erratic flows, especially around the 4 PM London fixing… note EURGBP (currently up) tends to be very active around month end
USDX (US Dollar Index)
Downtrend: Consolidating 97.03-97.54 BUT
Is the triple bottom at 97.03 the low?
Key resistance 98.23 would need to be broken to confirm.
To make a run at 97,03, EURUSD would need to set a new high.
EURO is 57.6% of USDX and the index is often used as a proxy for EURUSD
USDX 4 HOUR CHART
BTCUSD – Bitcoin
I said yesterday : Support at 106.875 has to hold ( for BTC to be able to move higher and attack resistance at 109.600)
And it held – actual low 106.876
Now after reaching above 107.400 road is open for test of mentioned resistance.
We need a close tonight just above 107.435 for tomorrow to have another leg Up.
Treasury Yields Rise as Trade Tensions Make a Comeback
Trade wars regain center stage, fueling a Treasury’s selloff that boosts yields. Trump ends trade talks with Canada because of a Canadian tax on digital services. Earlier, the White House touted progress on rare-earth negotiations with China. Meanwhile, PCE indicators show inflation a tad hotter than expected and consumer spending weaker. The combination puts the Fed in a tough spot. Markets are mostly pricing three or more cuts this year, according to CME data. The 10-year rises 0.030 percentage point to 4.238% and the two-year snaps a seven-day declining streak to gain 0.027 p.p., to 3.741%. Both are down for three consecutive weeks. June jobs report is due Thursday.
IXIC: Nasdaq Composite Hits Record Close as Tech-Dense Index Adds 32% Since April Lows
Key points:
· Nasdaq charts record highs
· What a magnificent comeback
· Nvidia leading the broader group
Yep — you read that right. Just over 32%, or one-third, of the index’s valuation was added in the span of just three months.
Celebrate Bull Times — Come On
· The Nasdaq Composite index IXIC rewrote history on Friday, notching its brand-new all-time closing high. Techy guys, this one goes out to you — the tech-heavy index added 0.5% to log out at 20,273.46 points.
· That’s the first record since the index’s December peak and comes amid all kinds of mixed-bag data, diverging outlook for the global economy, and — of course — Trump’s confusing rhetoric.
· But, and perhaps more interesting to the math kids, the Nasdaq Composite is up 5% on the year, but 32% since its April crash when Trump introduced the tariffs.
Drumroll: And the Winners Are…
· In other words, one-third of the Nasdaq’s valuation — a total of $23 trillion — was added in the span of just three months. That’s $7 trillion in net new money pouring into the index, an average of about $2.3 trillion each month.
· The gargantuan amount is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. Collectively called the Magnificent Seven, they are the heavy-hitters, the hyperscalers of the corporate world and are present in just about every serious fund manager’s portfolio.
· Nvidia NVDA, Microsoft MSFT, Apple AAPL, Amazon AMZN, Alphabet GOOGL, Meta META, and Tesla TSLA. That’s the reason those charts are flashing green arrows in uncharted territory.
Breakdown: Performance
· But not all are equal. The full club of seven is collectively down on the year — a negative 0.6% performance.
· Take Nvidia – Jensen Huang’s AI juggernaut. The shares are up just 15% this year, but more than 65% since the April lows. Presently, they’re chasing the formidable $4 trillion valuation, with just about $200 billion left to pull in.
· Meta is up 21% and Microsoft is up by 17%. The other four are on the other side of the ledger for the year. But all are up between 15% and 50% from the April selloff.
SPX: S&P 500 Clocks Record Close as US Stocks Stage Fabolous Comeback. What’s Behind Rally?
Key points:
· S&P 500 index books new all-time high
· Economic reality ≠ stocks at records
· What stocks are doing all the work?
Equity prices are on a tear — that’s for sure. But is that a good benchmark of economic health? After all, GDP contracted in the first quarter.
📈 S&P 500 Hits Record Close
· The S&P 500 index (SPX) notched an all-time closing high Friday, reversing course from its steep April drop and bouncing back more than 24% from that point to get where it is now.
· The broad-based market index closed Friday’s cash session up 0.5% to 6,173.07 points, blowing past its February 19 record high. What led to this stunning reversal? It’s a cocktail of events, sprinkled with investor optimism (more than anything?).
· The all-time closing high arrived after a rollercoaster ride on Friday when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in higher than expected at 2.7%, above the 2.6% consensus calls.
· The index initially dived on this news, then jumped back up. Then dived again when Trump said he’s ending tariff talks with Canada — only to rise back up again and score the record.
Record Highs… in This Economy?
· Broadly, war tremors have toned down lately with the Iran-Israel ceasefire holding up. The tariffs, another sticking point, haven’t been talked about too much, and the Fed’s guidance is pointing to a cut sooner than later (investors are eyeing the September meeting).
· But how’s the economy looking? If stocks are sprinting, is that a measure of economic success? Not really. Rising equity prices may be a milestone of note, but there isn’t any economic growth to justify those lofty company valuations.
· As a matter of fact, the US GDP shrank in the past quarter, down 0.5% year on year. There’s still inflation that’s running above the Fed’s 2% goal. Revenue for those same ceiling-valuation companies isn’t setting records.
· Fair to say, then, that the party is fairly isolated just for the stock bros sipping espresso martinis in the corner and bragging about their wins, mostly concentrated in the tech sector.
Markets, but Without Mag 7
· Zoom in on a few players in the S&P 500 and you’ll see that there are just 7 companies that are largely carrying the index into record-high grounds. The familiar Magnificent Seven club where Nvidia NVDA is seen shattering records and hitting formidable valuations, close to $4 trillion.
What about the S&P 493 then? That’s mostly struggling out of the spotlight. Last year, for example, the Mag 7 rose 57%, while the other 493 stocks in the index only advanced 13%.
But still, a record is a record and credit’s due where credit’s due — traders and investors, always optimistic by nature, overcame great hurdles to get where they are now. Question is, how far can they go from here?
The $100K Mirage: Bitcoin’s Rally Not Backed By On-Chain Strength
Bitcoin briefly climbed back above $100,000 this month, pushing close to the $108,000 level before a new pullback. The move looks strong on the surface. But based on reports from Glassnode, much of that surge came from traders using borrowed funds, not fresh buyers piling in.
Speculative Bets Fuel Recent Rally
According to on-chain data, late-June’s volume on Bitcoin futures stayed high as prices marched upward. Traders betting on short-term gains drove the market, even as the excitement behind the rally faded. Funding rates and the three-month futures basis both moved lower, signalling less bullish conviction. In other words, fewer people were making big, long bets on Bitcoin these days.
Spot Market Remains Quiet
Spot trading did not follow the futures boom. At its $111,910 peak in May, daily spot volume hovered around $7.65 billion. That’s well below the previous cycle highs, which topped $20 billion on some days. Based on reports, new cash from retail or long-term holders stayed on the sidelines instead of flooding in. Institutional Buyers Still Adding
Big firms did keep buying. This week saw Michael Saylor’s Strategy, Metaplanet and ProCap BTC together pick up about $1 billion worth of Bitcoin. At the same time, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs bought over $1.5 billion in fresh supply. Those steady purchases hint at genuine interest from institutions, even if short-term traders set the pace recently.
Supply Tightness Could Drive Prices
Glassnode now shows just 7 million BTC left freely available on exchanges. Roughly 14 million BTC are held by people who haven’t moved their coins in ages. That supply squeeze could support prices if demand holds up. But it also means any sudden sell-off might hit hard when exchange wallets run low. What Comes Next For Bitcoin
All in all, the recent jump above $100,000 feels more like a sprint by margin players than a marathon fueled by new believers. Corrections often follow rallies driven by heavy margin activity. Yet, the ongoing buying by big companies and ETFs offers a buffer. If they keep at it, Bitcoin may need a breather now but could rally again later.
As of June 28, Bitcoin traded at $106,500, down 0.85% on the day. Market watchers will be looking for a return of fresh spot demand or a stabilizing of futures bets before declaring the uptrend back on solid ground.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin
Right now BTC is trying to attack resistance at 109.600
For that to happen two things have to be in line:
Support at 106.875 has to hold
BTC has to reach above 107.400
Intraday pressure is still Down – it is “wait and see” situation
If 106.875 lost 106.145 is next Support to be visited – that would negate or at least delay another attempt Up
Posted in our blog
How to Use Drill Down Analysis in Forex: A Multi-Timeframe Look at EURUSD
Successful forex trading requires more than just focusing on a single chart. Whether you trade on a 15-minute or 4-hour chart, you must understand the context provided by longer-term time frames. This approach is called drill down analysis, and it’s a favorite strategy of institutional and “real money” traders.
In this article, we’ll show you how to perform drill down analysis, apply it to EURUSD, and identify key levels and trends across timeframes to improve your trading decisions.
How to Use Drill Down Analysis in Forex: A Multi-Timeframe Look at EURUSD
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