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European Equities Close Lower in Friday Trading; EU Employment Rate Increases in Q1
The European stock markets closed lower in Friday trading as the Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 0.97%, Germany’s DAX was down 1.1%, the FTSE 100 decreased 0.36%, France’s CAC 40 fell 1.04% and the Swiss Market Index declined 1.6%.
European Union employment rate for people between 20 and 64 slightly increased to 76.1% in Q1, up from 76% in the previous quarter, according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU. Labor market slack also saw a marginal rise of 0.1 percentage points, reaching 10.9% of the extended labor force in the same period.
The euro area’s trade surplus in goods with the rest of the world significantly narrowed to 9.9 billion euros ($11.4 billion) in April 2025, a notable drop from 37.3 billion euros in March, Eurostat said. This decline was primarily driven by a sharp reduction in a surplus of the chemicals sector.
Great Britain saw overseas visitors making 10.4 million trips and spending an estimated 10.2 billion pounds ($13.8 billion) in Q3 2024, according to the Office of National Statistics. However, outbound travel by Great Britain residents during the same period was higher, with 29 million visits abroad and expenditures reaching an estimated 28.4 billion pounds.
In Q4 2024, inbound visits to Great Britain dipped to 9.3 million with spending of 7.4 billion pounds, and outbound trips also decreased to 20.3 million, with residents spending 17.3 billion pounds.
Wholesale selling prices in Germany rose by 0.4% in May compared to the previous year, a deceleration from the 0.8% increase seen in April, according to the Federal Statistical Office. The gains were driven by a 4.3% jump in food beverages and tobacco prices, especially coffee, tea, cocoa, and spices.
Producer prices for agricultural products in Germany rose by 3.2% in April compared to the previous year, driven by a significant 9.8% increase in prices for animals and animal products, according to the Federal Statistical Office. Plant product prices declined 6.3% year-on-year, primarily due to a substantial drop in table potato prices.
Stoxx Europe 600
Still feels like good cop, bad cop but beyond my pay grade to guess how Iran responds..
EURUSD 1h
Supports: 1.15400, 1.15300 & 1.15050
Resistances: 1.15700, 1.16000 & 1.16150
EUR should continue pushing upwards, going into weekly close tonight.
Sharp Uptrend angle has been preserved, even the geopolitical situation is not calming one bit.
It is very difficult to predict how it will behave over the weekend, with more news to hit the wires….
Stay out and stay safe – any intention to hold a position over this weekend can be deadly for your margin.
XAUUSD – Gold 4h
So let see what’s going on after the first shock.
Gold made marginally higher high – 3446.75
Now to continue towards resistance at 3500.00 – the all time high, these are supports that must hold:
3420.00, 3405.00 & 3375.00
For gold to skip on any consolidation/correction it has to stay above 3405.00 till close tonight.
Right now the pressure is on the supports , so downwards , and before we see it going over 3430.00 again it is going to stay that way.
U of M Consaumer Sentiment beats up on upside, inflation expectations drop
Bitcoin Price Tumbles as Gold Rises. Why Crypto Is No Haven
Bitcoin fell early Friday as it reacted to heightened global tensions in the Middle East, dropping along with other so-called risk assets.
It remains to be seen what sustained effect the geopolitical tensions will have on cryptos’ recent momentum. Amazon.com and Walmart are the latest companies to consider issuing their own stablecoins, according to a Friday report by The Wall Street Journal.
It comes less than a month after U.S. banks JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup were also reported to be exploring issuing a stablecoin — a digital asset pegged to a fiat currency, typically the U.S. dollar.
The world’s largest crypto was down 1.9% over the past 24 hours to $105,061, according to CoinDesk. It dropped to as low as $103,274 overnight, for a loss of about 4% on a 24-hour basis, but has recouped some of those losses since, perhaps indicating crypto investors’ interest in buying on dips.
Israel launched a wide-ranging strike on Iran overnight, targeting the country’s nuclear program and military leadership. Oil prices jumped and markets fell. Futures tracking the S&P 500 were down 1.4% early Friday morning.
Ether and XRP were down 7.1% and 3.7%, respectively. Solana plummeted nearly 9%.
Gold, the ultimate haven asset, rose 1.1%.
Bitcoin has held up relatively well amid the tariff drama over the last couple of months, with some hailing it as “digital gold,” or a haven in uncertain times. Friday’s price move will likely dent those ideas.
The total market value of cryptocurrencies fell to $3.22 trillion on Friday morning from a peak of $3.47 trillion late Wednesday as investors fled risk assets in response to the Israel-Iran conflict
CoinMarketCap 100 Index Chart
Asian Stock Markets Undercut by Middle East Tensions
Asian stock markets pulled back on Friday following reports of Israeli military attacks on Iranian sites connected to possible nuclear-weapons programs.
Global crude oil prices rose between 8% and 9% for most grades in Asian trading hours.
Hong Kong, Shanghai and Tokyo stock exchanges finished in the red, as did other regional trading floors.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 opened lower on Middle East geopolitics and drifted sideways, finishing off 0.9%. A stronger yen dented export issues.
The benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 338.84 to 37,834.25, as losing issues outnumbered gainers 176 to 46.
Leading the upside was games-maker Nexon, up 8.4%, while internet-services outfit LY declined 5.3%.
In economic news, Japan’s index of industrial production rose 0.5% on year in April, but fell a seasonally adjusted 1.1% from March, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry (METI).
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index opened evenly but declined in trading, finishing off 0.6% on Middle East war reports.
The broad gauge Hang Seng rose 142.82 to 23,892.56, as losing issues outnumbered gainers 49 to 34. The Hang Seng TECH Index lost 1.7% on the day, but the Mainland Properties Index rose 0.9%.
Property issues gained after the People’s Bank of China disclosed a fresh “reverse repo” program for the second time this month, in a bid to boost bank funds available for lending.
Leading the upside was Chow Tai Fook Jewelry, gaining 5.4%, while Sunny Optical Technology declined 5%.
On the mainland, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.8% to 3,370.00.
On the other regional exchanges, the S. Korean KOSPI fell 0.9%; the Taiwan TWSE declined 1%; the Australian ASX 200 declined 0.2%; the Singapore Straits Times Index fell 0.3%, and the Thai Set declined 0.5%. In late trading in Mumbai, the Sensex was down 0.7%
Nikkei 225 Index
ING Comments on Euro, Sterling, Poland’s Zloty, Hungary’s Forint, Czech Republic’s Koruna
The euro generally dislikes geopolitical shocks leading to higher energy prices, and has, as such, detached from Japan’s yen and Swiss franc in early price action after the Israeli strike on Iran, said ING.
This is a trigger for an unwinding of stretched longs on EURUSD, which, according to the bank’s model, briefly reached a two-standard-deviation overvaluation relative to short-term drivers on Thursday.
That is just above the 5% “misevaluation,” which ING has assessed as the peak, where further rallies would need to be justified either by a substantial shift in rate differentials — higher EUR short-term rates or lower US dollar short-term rates — or another material deterioration in the United States debt market. That overvaluation sits at 4% after early Friday’s correction.
From a European Central Bank perspective, oil market volatility likely endorses its cautious tone on further easing, and potentially pushes the chances of the last 25bps cut of the cycle more to Q4 2025 rather than 3Q — mirroring the current market preference, stated OING.
Anyway, the bank likely needs to wait for next week’s ECB speakers to get a better sense of what this all means for monetary policy. Given the fast-moving geopolitical situation, it’s definitely too early to draw conclusions just yet. EURUSD will likely follow that situation closely and primarily via the oil price channel.
However, the bank thinks the starting point was already quite rich for the pair, and a return to the 1.14-1.15 seems entirely appropriate.
The week has been a rather negative one for sterling’s domestic drivers, pointed out ING. April gross domestic product surprised on Thursday with a 0.3% month-on-month contraction, and the bank noted how growth may well get worse later in the year.
Adding to that, payrolls dropped significantly in May, and a relatively uneventful spending review event did very little to suggest the government can dodge tax rises at the fall budget.
In line with ING’s call, EURGBP has broken above 0.8500, and prolonged geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East should drive further gains in the pair, where the bank retains a bullish bias.
Cable has potentially a wide room for downside correction given how expensive it looks relative to rate differentials, added ING. But the bank has seen how structurally bearish USD bets are preventing US dollar gains from being sustainable. So, ING is more “cautious” on that side.
In the foreign exchange market, a weaker US dollar further supports stronger Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies, according to ING. On the other hand, on Thursday, the bank saw a slight correction in rates after a sharp rise in previous days — a move that also pared back recent foreign exchange gains.
However, the picture for CEE currencies still looks more bullish. The Czech Republic’s koruna (CZK) in particular should continue its gradual gains, while Poland’s zloty (PLN) and Hungary’s forint (HUF) seem more of a mix to ING.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin
Bitcoin dived to 102.715 overnight but rebounded nicely so far.
That support line that you see on the chart that was briefly broken – on weekly chart it comes at 102.000 – so not even broken, yet.
If BTC manages to return to levels above 107.000 till tonight, this would be considered as just a dip.
Intraday it is pushing up right now, with resistances at:
105.500, 106.560 & 107.000
Supports: 104.445, 103.975 & 103.235
XAUUSD – Gold
Gold behaved as expected – ok few missiles helped a bit, but Pattern never lies J
Now to be able to continue Up at the current speed and angle, it has to stay today above 3405.00 and to close in the vicinity of it.
Next hurdle – and the last one prior to the new high is at 3500.00
I never recommend anyone to hold on a position over weekend, and especially not now!
We’ll continue to monitor it and inform you on any new developments
DAX
In the aftermath of last night’s news, Dax just slides down…
Now technical view is secondary – still works, but levels might be quite stretched.
Supports: 23.265, 23.155 & 22.870
Resistances: 23.700, 23.835 & 23.920
Now we can only hope that this shebang is not going to end up like in April of this year.
I would settle for 22.400 as a good bet for support, but stays to be seen
If however it does prove to be a strong support, DAX would be in a perfect position to advance, once this newest mess is over.
USDX (U.S. DOLLAR INDEX)
Correcting from a double bottom around 97.63
To break current momentum, 98.54 needs to be taken out (99.25 is an equivalent 4 hour chart)…. and gap more than filled
For USDX to have more legs to this bounce, , EURUSD (57.6% of the index) would need to move back below 1.15.
Intra-day support: 98.10
USDX 1 HOUR CHART
XTIUSD
AS POSTED LAST NIGHT :Daily chart shows 73.00-76.00 as a resistance band… intra-day high 75.99
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It is a stretch to suggest technicals drive the price action in a geopolitical crisis but today’s high sets 76.00 as a key level
XTIUSD DAILY CHART
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows…
.. the dollar trading higher although so far contained with EURUSD holding above 1.15 (low 1.1511)
Risk off but in a wait and see mode
Gold spiked above 3400 but is off its high
Crude spiked but is off its high
Stocks fell sharply but off its lows
US bonds steady
Focus: Waiting for Iran to retaliate. So far it has just been drones.
Event risk is not just Iran’s response but whether the conflict escalates.
Expect defensive trading into the weekend given the event risk.
To suggest a greater run for cover, the overngiht lows (GOLD and crude oil highs) would need to be broken.
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