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Bitcoin bull run ‘might be delayed’ as $104.5K weekly close becomes key
Key points:
· Bitcoin is trading back below its recent all-time highs, grilling support at levels it first encountered in late 2024.
· A “deeper pullback” may result before bulls find the momentum to return to price discovery.
· Profit-taking lies at the heart of current resistance, analysis says
Bitcoin BTCUSD risks a “deeper correction” as the next phase of its bull market faces a temporary setback.
Bitcoin profit-taking causes bull run hiatus
Analysis is warning of sub-$100,000 prices as data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTCUSD dropping 8%.
Bitcoin returned below its old all-time highs on May 31 as the latest correction nears $9,000 below its latest record peak.
After bulls encountered resistance from multiple sources, on chain indicators soon began to forecast a slowdown in bullish momentum.
If BTC closes below the horizontal support and resistance line on the weekly, we could see a deeper pullback possibly forming an inverse Head and Shoulders before the next leg up
Euro Gains 0.15% to $1.1349
Euro/dollar: 1.1349 dollars per euro (0.8812 euro per dollar)
· This month the euro gained 0.15% vs. the dollar
· Up for five straight months
· Up 9.59% over the last five months
· Largest five-month percentage decline since Thursday, Aug. 31, 2017
· Largest five-month percentage gain since Friday, March 31, 2023
· Longest winning streak since Aug. 2017 when the market rose for six straight months
· This week the euro lost 0.14% vs. the dollar
· Down five of the past six weeks
· Today the euro lost 0.18% vs. the dollar
· Down three of the past four sessions
· Off 1.43% from its 52-week high of 1.1514 hit Monday, April 21, 2025
· Up 10.77% from its 52-week low of 1.0246 hit Monday, Jan. 13, 2025
· Rose 4.62% vs the dollar from 52 weeks ago
· Year-to-date the euro is up 9.59% vs the dollar
Data based on 5 p.m. ET values
Dollar Gains 0.69% to 144.05 Yen
Dollar/Japanese yen: 144.05 Japanese yen per dollar (0.0069 dollar per Japanese yen)
· This month the dollar gained 0.69% vs. the Japanese yen
· Largest one-month percentage gain since Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
· Snaps a four-month losing streak
· This week the dollar gained 1.04% vs. the Japanese yen
· Largest one-week percentage gain since Friday, April 25, 2025
· Up five of the past six weeks
· Today the dollar lost 0.09% vs. the Japanese yen
· Down for two straight sessions
· Down 0.56% over the last two sessions
· Largest two-day percentage decline since Monday, May 26, 2025
· Off 10.91% from its 52-week high of 161.697 hit Wednesday, July 10, 2024
· Up 2.45% from its 52-week low of 140.613 hit Monday, Sept 16, 2024
· Down 8.40% vs the Japanese yen from 52 weeks ago
· Year-to-date the dollar is down 8.37% vs the Japanese yen
Data based on 5 p.m. ET values
EURUSD Daily
EUR closed the week pretty Bullish.
1.13900 is important level to take out if it is to continue Up.
Pattern wise – it should test higher on Monday, and everything later depends on breaking that resistance above the head.
Have a nice weekend all, and we’ll continue on Sunday evening.
In the mean time expect updates from Crypto world
XRPUSD
XRP lost that attacking angle and now is deep in….well..correction.
I am going over charts, and so far everything and everyone – Lost…this or that
So, watch that support at 2.01800
If XRP is to make any aggressive Up moves, that one has to hold…or 1.64550 here we come.
And that wouldn’t even be such a bad thing, but so much time would be lost.
EURUSD 4H
This is one silly development – someone / something is obviously buying EUR on any dip….
For any follow through, EURUSD has to take over 1.13600 first and then 1.13800
If however those resistances prove to be too hard to break, whoever was buying EUR is going to have his/her stops exposed.
My bet is on the downside …so we’ll see
USD moves lower after data dump but there are some limits
The USD moved lower after the data that showed inflation was under control – for now. The trade data saw a big improvement. The personal income data was solid.
Not so hot is Pres. Trump tweeted that China violated the trade agreement:
Stocks are lower. Yields are near unchanged.
The USD moved lower initially, but is moving modestly higher after the initial move.
EURUSD: The EURSUD moved above the 100-hour MA at 1.13342. The high reached 1.1357. The 1.1362 and 1.13803 are targets. The high today reached 1.1389.
UBS Previews Next Week’s Bank of Canada Policy Decision; Comments on Canadian Dollar
The Bank of Canada is likely to leave its policy rate unchanged next Wednesday and UBS expects USDCAD to continue its downward trajectory over time.
The bank’s opportunity of the week centers around a continuation of the AUDCAD’s recent rebound.
The AUDCAD currency pair usually trades in a tight range around the 0.90 level, according to UBS. However, in the aftermath of the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements by United States President Donald Trump, the pair dipped briefly to levels below 0.85 and since then recovered very gradually to 0.89.
In the bank’s view, there remains further ground to make up, with a move above 0.90 likely in the coming months. Key catalysts include the improving chance of a U.S.-China trade deal, relative upside for mined commodities versus energy, and a much smoother domestic rebound in Australia.
In addition, UBS doesn’t foresee a sharp rally in the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie). As a result, the bank likes to be long AUDCAD at 0.89, with a target of 0.92 and a stop-loss of 0.8750.
AUDCAD Chart
BTCUSD – Bitcoin
BTC is in the correction phase – when I stated two days ago that correction is on its way, I almost got lynched on X – so there you go….or better to say: I told you so 😀
Resistances: 106.500, 107.700 & 108.915
Supports: 104.525, 102.000 & 100.725
It should continue slowly down for a day or two more.
First signal that BTC is ready to continue Up is once it moves above 107.500
DAX
Dax is trying to consolidate just above 24.000 and so far holds above it
In my opinion, one quick and not too brutal correction might serve it better…
Resistances: 24.180, 24.280 & 24.325
Supports: 23.915, 23.550 & 23.050
It’s end of the week and end of the month, so just holding onto 24.000 is a positive sign.
However, I would love to see it tests the supports
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