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DAX
Once again DAX did everything by the book
Tried to test a support at 23.750 ( fell short of it – Low 23.898 ) and went for a new high.
Ideal target is at 24.155
You should know that above that Target/resistance , a brand new Universe is waiting….but we’ll talk about that in case DAX manages to go over.
US dollar rises after data, set for fourth straight weekly gain
Key points:
· Import prices unexpectedly rise
· Gauge of consumer sentiment falls, inflation expectations jump
· Dollar poised for fourth straight week of gains
The dollar strengthened on Friday after the latest round of economic data showed a rebound in import prices while consumer sentiment remained subdued as tariff worries jumped, putting it on pace for a fourth straight weekly advance.
The Labor Department said import prices gained 0.1% last month after dropping 0.4% in March as a jump in the cost of capital goods outweighed cheaper energy prices. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, would decrease 0.4%.
The dollar began to strengthen after a separate reading from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers showed its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 this month, below the 53.4 estimate, from a final reading of 52.2 in April. In addition, the 12-month inflation expectations of consumers shot up to 7.3%, the highest level since November 1981, from 6.5%.
The greenback began the week with a surge of more than 1% on Monday after the United States and China announced a 90-day pause on most of the tariffs imposed on each other’s goods since early April, easing fears of a global recession, but had been trending lower throughout the week in part due to tepid economic data.
DAX – Week’s end
Dax tested previous high today, but fell just a bit short of it.
It is not particularly indicative – but this Close of the Day is muted – and that is usually the first sign that things are not going well…
For DAX to be able to continue the uptrend , it has to go over 23.915 first thing on Monday, or will risk start of at least a consolidation.
However, in my opinion it needs a good correction, before continuing a rally.
Resistance – 23.915
Supports: 23.665, 23.500 & 23.335
DAX Daily
When you pull back for a moment from trying to figure out what is the next move on DAX, one fact just hits you – this is the biggest move EVER in one single motion – one huge and extremely steep wave.
Over 5.000 pips in just over one month.
Now it becomes kind of crazy to predict that it’s gonna go Up some more…
But this is exactly how it looks like right now.
Ultimate target is at 24.800 and in any other circumstance I would bet on it.
Pattern that we are looking at ( today’s development and the close DAX managed to achieve ) calls for tomorrow : Next Leg UP.
However, I am becoming wary more and more….it comes from the fact that something like this has never happened before on DAX .
So let’s our imagination flies some more – if DAX really hits it up as I just said, it’s real target lies more in 28.500 area …
Be very careful , and never forget the old adage : the way it goes Up is exactly the way it’s gonna go Down 😀
DAX
Dax holding for now, but time is of essence here…
If the previous high at 23.911 becomes an issue, it might have to go to consolidation phase.
Support is at 23.445 & 23.365
It doesn’t look capable of going higher right now, but if it closes today above 23.680 it would be a bullish set up for tomorrow.
DAX
DAX has lost the upward momentum right now, without challenging the previous High.
What is important is that it wasn’t rejected sharply, so no savage profit takings…
Now we have two levels that should provide good support and consolidation platform:
22.800 & 22.100
Tonight is FOMC and that fact has to be taken into consideration – we’ll know what’s next after it.
There is still time for DAX to take a chance pre-FOMC and go for a run at the all time high….
US OPEN
Sentiment hit after HKMA says it is diversifying into non-US assets, Bunds volatile on Merz
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.
5 Things You Need to Know
Sentiment in the equities complex hit after HKMA said it has been lowering its duration in US treasury holdings; the exchange fund has been diversifying into non-US assets; ES -0.7%, NQ -1%.
Germany’s CDU leader Merz fails to be elected as Chancellor, a decision which has sparked pressure in European bourses leading to underperformance in the DAX 40.
USD on the backfoot, JPY leads the majors, EUR upside stalled in reaction to Merz updates.
Bunds boosted on Merz, though the move has since pared, Gilts underperform.
Crude and gold remain firm amid escalating geopolitics.
DAX Snaps 9-Day Rally
Frankfurt’s DAX edged down to trade slightly below 23,300 on Tuesday, as investors took a breath after nine consecutive sessions of advances.
The focus continued on the earnings season while awaiting key catalysts, including the Fed’s monetary policy decision due tomorrow.
On the domestic front,
the election of Friedrich Merz as the new German chancellor will also take center stage today.The new government’s extensive investment package in infrastructure and defense is a source of hope for the German economy.
On the earnings front, Continental shares soared about 4% after the company’s sales hit a 4-year high.
DAX
German Stocks Gain as Central Banks Take Spotlight
German equities kicked off a new trading week in the green as investors await monetary policy decisions from major central banks due within the week.The blue-chip DAX index was 1.12% higher on Monday’s close.
The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will make their latest interest rate moves on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. BofA Global Research expects the Fed to hold, while the BoE is projected to cut rates by 25 basis points.
“The Fed will likely remain on hold, and we expect no change in Chair Powell’s tone from his recent speeches. He will probably reiterate that the Fed is assessing the total impact of all policy changes by the Trump Administration, not just trade policy in isolation,” BofA said. “We expect the BoE to cut by 25bps to 4.25%, with an 8-1 vote. There are risks of a more dovish voting pattern, though. Moreover, forecasts are likely to show lower growth and inflation. We expect gradual guidance, but risks of a dovish pivot cannot be ruled out.”
DAX Technicals
DAX – Ger 30
May 2, 2025 at 3:25 pm
“Next hurdle is at 23.250 & of course high at 23.500 Pattern wise : if 22.700/800 provides a decent support, I can see DAX hitting a new high maybe even next week.”
Pattern is always right….
Now what’s left to be taken care of is 23.500
With close like this, tomorrow we should see new high.
DAX – Ger30
As I called yesterday “another push up” it materialized today.
Frankly, I didn’t know what is going to happen at 22.700, but DAX ate it in one bite – opened with the gap and above it.
Now we watch that 22.700 as a important support for more to come.
Next hurdle is at 23.250 & of course high at 23.500 Pattern wise : if 22.700/800 provides a decent support, I can see DAX hitting a new high maybe even next week.
DAX –Ger30
Dax going strong today so far…
Supports: 22.250, 22.050 & 21.600
Resistances: 22.500, 22.700 & 22.950
Dax has not only fully recovered from previous sharp dive to 19K , but if manages to cross above 22.700 might achieve even bigger gains then prior to the fall.
Sharp tests of supports must be watched for, but this is now Buyers heaven.
Spanish and German stocks among Europe’s winners so far in 2025
Key points:· STOXX 600 little changed
· Kering falls after results
· China says no U.S. talks yet
· Wall St futures lower
It has been a rollercoaster year for stock markets so far. But even amid the wild swings prompted by the ongoing U.S.-China trade war some clear index winners are emerging.
Among major European indices, Spain’s IBEX 35 IBC is a winner, surging 13.9% in 2025 as banking stocks have surged. Santander SAN, Sabadell BBVA and Caixabank CABK are up between 29% and 41%.
Next in line is Germany’s DAX, up 10.3%, with its biggest stock SAP this year taking the top spot last month as Europe’s largest company.
Italy’s FTSE MIB FTSEMIB is up 6.6% year-to-date.
Other major European indices such as the UK’s FTSE 100 CURRENCYCOM:UK100 and France’s CAC 40 PX1 have posted less dramatic gains, but all remain in positive territory. This contrasts with the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 SPX which is down 8.6%.
