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Downside miss in Chicago PMI… stocks dip… U of M final consumer sentiment next
XAUUSD – Gold Daily
Gold is consolidating for awhile, after hitting the all time high back in April.
Now we have important levels above the head:
Resistances: 3330.00, 3365.00 & 3400.00
Most important one is the last – 3400.00 – once above it, we’ll be looking for a new high.
Two levels are targets: 3585.00 & 3635.00
For that scenario to happens, Gold first have to close tonight above 3320.00
If not, it will test support at 3210.00
So as long as it stays above 3200.00, it is in bullish position.
Problem is that we live and work in extraordinary geopolitical times and one word is enough to screw up all the plans.
April PCE about as expected, monthly trade deficit much lower than expected
EURUSD
I was told many years ago by a commodities trader that outside day key reversals do not work well with currencies
This was the case yesterday as EURUSD did not follow through on an outside day key reversal day.
What stands out on this chart?
A symmetric range 10 pips either side within 1.12-1.14.
This makes 1.13 the midpoint and the bias setting level.
Otherwise, no key stops to go after within 1.1210-1.,1390.
Hint: Without nearby stops to go after a currency will trade in a choppy consolidation.
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART
SPX: S&P 500 Futures Drop as Tariff Story Posts Surprise Twist — White House Won This Round
Key points:
· S&P 500 futures take a tumble
· Markets reacts to fresh tariff jitters
· Trump wins the battle, not the war
Turns out, it might not be illegal for Trump to slap the globe with tariffs — a federal appeals court said Thursday the duties are staying for now. Everyone, back to the other side of the boat.
Stock Futures Dive on Risk-Off Return
· Futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 index were looking a bit sour Friday morning as traders were grappling with the return of massive uncertainty.
· Just when markets thought the tariff saga had been clipped by the courts, the plot flipped. A federal appeals court ruled Thursday that President Trump’s sweeping trade duties can stay — at least for now.
· S&P 500 futures slipped about 0.3% as Wall Street scrambled to reprice what’s still a very active trade war front. Nasdaq futures and Dow Jones futures were also lower by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.
White House Winning the Battle
· The US Court of International Trade threw a wrench in Trump’s trade machine on Wednesday, declaring his global tariffs illegal under the 1977 emergency powers law.
· But on Thursday, a higher federal appeals court reversed course — letting the tariffs stay while the administration threw down the gauntlet and explored ways to win the war, not just the battle.
Tariffs Back on the Menu
· The sudden shift means Trump’s 50% tariffs on EU goods and extended duties on Chinese imports are still very much a global threat — adding back a layer of uncertainty that markets had just started to shake off.
· Now the ball is in the White House’s court. Trump and his squad are reportedly exploring alternate legal justifications to keep the tariffs alive, including more traditional Congressional trade powers.
Is Crypto Market in for a deeper Dive?
Key points:
· The total crypto market cap fell 2.60% to $3.34 trillion on May 30, fueled by stalled US-China trade talks.
· Over $683.4 million in crypto futures liquidated, with $617.85M in longs reinforcing the intensity of the selling pressure.
· Total crypto market cap risks falling toward $3.1 trillion after breaking below a descending parallel channel.
The combined valuation of all cryptocurrencies has fallen by around 2.60% in the past 24 hours to reach $3.34 trillion on May 30.
Crypto prices began falling during the late New York trading hours on May 29 after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s confirmation of stalled trade negotiations with China dampened investor sentiment and triggered a risk-off mode in the market.
“I would say that they are a bit stalled,” Bessent said in a Fox News interview on May 29, adding that it would require the leaders of the two countries to speak directly to reach a deal.
In response, Bitcoin BTCUSD dropped by 2% to as low as $104,600 on Bistamp. The decline in BTC triggered panic selling among crypto investors, with cryptocurrency prices dropping.
Ether ETHUSD extended its two-day losses, dipping as low as $2,560 on May 30, marking 4% losses over the last 24 hours.
XRP XRPUSD, Solana SOLUSD and Dogecoin DOGEUSD also witnessed significant losses, down 4.2%, 5.2% and 9%, respectively.
From a technical standpoint, the crypto market’s ongoing decline is occurring after breaking below multi-week support at around the $3.35 trillion level.
Using my platform as a HEATMAPP shows…
… the dollar trading firmer but well below yesterday’s highs
AUDUSD weakest followed by EURUSD
GOLD is down but well above Thursday’s low
US stocks steady
US bonds steady after yields fell yesterday
Month end today – stay alert for the 4PM London fix
April PCE and Chicago PMI
Gold falls as dollar strengthens ahead of key US inflation data
Key points:
· Trump’s tariffs to remain in effect after appeals court grants stay
· US PCE price index report due at 1230 GMT
· Dollar up 0.2% against its rivals
·
· Gold prices fell on Friday as the dollar ticked up, while investors remained cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data due later in the day to gauge the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory.
· Spot gold GOLD was down 0.6% at $3,295.99 an ounce, as of 0841 GMT. Bullion is down 1.8% so far this week.
· U.S. gold futures GOLD fell 0.6% to $3,294.20.
· The dollar DXY rose 0.2% against its rivals and is on track for a weekly gain, making gold costlier for foreign buyers.
· “The U.S. dollar is up slightly this morning, which could be a source of pressure for gold,” said Carsten Menke, analyst at Julius Baer.
· “Barring a major surprise to the PCE data, I would not expect gold to show a meaningful reaction. That said, the market seems to be a bit more nervous as of late, suggesting that volatility should stay high in the short-term.”
· The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is due at 1230 GMT. The data is likely to show that inflation rose 2.2% in April, according to economists polled by Reuters, compared with a 2.3% increase in March.
· “With U.S. core PCE looming large, there is some hesitance to take new long positions in gold,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
· Investors are currently anticipating 50 basis points worth of rate cuts by the end of this year, starting in October. (USDIRPR)
· Zero-yield bullion tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment.
· Meanwhile, a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the most sweeping of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Thursday, a day after a U.S. trade court ruled he had exceeded his authority and ordered an immediate block.
· Spot silver XAGUSD1! fell 0.6% to $33.16 an ounce, platinum PL1! eased 0.8% to $1,073.80 and palladium XPDUSD1! dropped 0.4% to $969.79.
Gold
Month end forex rebalancing: USD Outlook: General consensus points towards moderate USD selling pressure at month-end, influenced by equity performance during the mointh of May.
So the question is:
Can You Time Month-End Forex Rebalancing Flows?
NAS100 (NASDAQ)
Trying to pick a top in the NAS has been like stranding in front of a freight train.
However, anything other than a MOVE through 22224 (record high) would be a disappointment
High extended to 21813 but failure to firmly establish 21500+ has shifted the focus to what levels need to hold to keep this leg up intact
Key level: 21283 (low 21256)… break would need to be followed by a run through 20090 to confirm
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR CHART
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