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Barclays Keeps Slightly Bearish View on Yen
Barclays retains its slightly bearish view on the yen, two strategists write in a research report. There is scope for the U.S. dollar to strengthen further against the yen than previously projected due to factors such as a reduction in U.S.-China tariff levels and a delayed U.S.-Japan policy rate convergence, they say. The yen is also likely to continue facing structural downward pressures from catalysts including continued outward investment, the strategists add. However, Barclays sees some risk of near-term yen strength that could stem from an increase in global equity risk premium due to trade uncertainty, a U.S. slowdown or geopolitical tensions. USD/JPY is 0.5% lower at 145.41.
SocGen’s Overnight Economic News Summary
— Risk on, oil swoons 16% from peak of Monday after President Trump announces ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Netanyahu: Israel achieved war goals, agreed to Iran ceasefire. Euro Stoxx futures +1.9%. Bund unchanged at 2.51%. USDEUR reclaims 1.16. Australia’s AUD and New Zealand’s NZD lead G10 currency gains, Asia on top in emerging markets. Two-year United States Treasury on trend support at 3.80%.
— FOMC’s Bowman (voter): I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting should inflation pressures remain contained, inflation appears to be on a sustained path toward 2%, only minimal impacts on overall core PCE inflation from changes to trade policy.
— Day ahead: Federal Reserve Chair Powell semi-annual testimony, two-year UST auction, consumer confidence, Q1 current act. Germany Ifo survey. European Central Bank speakers Lagarde, de Guindos, Lane, Kazimir. Bank of England’s Bailey, Greene, Ramsden, Pill, Breeden. Canada’s consumer price index. Hungary’s central bank (MNB) forecast on hold.
— CFTC weekly positioning: long euro raised to 13.4% OI, long yen upped to 41.2%, long sterling steady at 24.2%, short Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) cut to 22.5%, AUD shorts raised to 47.1%, short Swiss franc rose to 29.8% and long Mexican peso increase to 37.3%.
— Nikkei +1.1%, EUR 10-year IRS unchanged at 2.52%, Brent crude -4.3% at $68.4/barrel, Gold -2% at $3,321/oz.
Crude Oil Chart
BTCUSD – Bitcoin
BTC closed last night well above mentioned 103.370 ( made it Bullish for the coming day)
But this recovery might be short lived, and not only because of Geopolitical mess, but technical reasons as well.
Resistances: 106.125, 106.555 & 108.355
Supports: 104.175 & 103.685
This is a correction so far, and even BTC making new lows every few days, it has never entered into liquidation.
95K is a very important level to be watched and as long as it stays above it we can expect the rally to continue.
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows..
A risk on mood but with a fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire already showing cracks before it got started markets are back into a wait-and-see mode.
Dollar is weaker ….EURUSD lagging after leading yesterday, trade above 1.16 paused below its recent 1.1631 (and 2025) high… USDJPY back to 145 after being repelled yesterday at 148, EURGBP is weaker, JPY, NZD, AUD, GBP outperforming
Gold is weaker after breaking 3338-40 support
US stocks extending yesterday’s turnaround
Crude oil feeling the effects of yesterday’s cratering but steadying awaiting more news from Israel-Iran
Hong Kong Stocks Extend Gains on Israel-Iran Ceasefire; China Hongqiao Jumps on Profit Outlook
Hong Kong stocks gained for the second consecutive day this week as a ceasefire to end a 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel took effect, sending global oil prices sharply lower, easing concerns about disruptions to global supply.
The Hang Seng Index advanced 487.94 points, or 2.1%, to 24,177.07, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed 163.09 points, or 1.9%, to 8,760.45.
US President Donald Trump said a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was now in place and urged both sides not to violate it, raising hopes of an end to the 12-day war even as attacks were reported in both countries.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the nation had agreed to the proposal, declaring it had achieved its objective of neutralizing Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile threat.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an earlier post that his country would stop firing so long as Israel does.
Oil prices hit their lowest in two weeks on Tuesday, alleviating worries of supply disruptions in the Middle East, a major oil-producing region.
Brent crude futures were down 5.3% at $67.66 a barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5.5% to $64.76 per barrel, according to Reuters.
In corporate news, aluminium maker China Hongqiao 1378 surged 6% to close at HK$16.92 after projecting first-half earnings to rise 35% from a year prior.
Hang Seng Chart
Why is the crypto market up today?
Key Points:· The crypto market is up 4.4% on June 24, with its capitalization rising to $3.26 trillion.
· Over $358 million in crypto longs were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
· The crypto market cap TOTAL chart is flashing a bull flag.
The cryptocurrency market is up today, with the total market capitalization rising by approximately 4.4% in the last 24 hours to reach $3.26 trillion on June 24.
The total 24-hour trading volume across all crypto assets has also increased by 10% to $150 billion, suggesting increasing buyer interest in crypto assets.
Bitcoin leads market recovery
Crypto prices began rising during the late New York trading hours on June 23 after US President Donald Trump announced a “total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran, easing fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict.
In a Monday post on Truth Social, Trump said that Israel and Iran have agreed to a full ceasefire set to begin within a few hours, potentially ending what he referred to as “The 12 Day War.”
The 12-day conflict, marked by Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and retaliatory missile attacks, had triggered risk-off sentiment, pushing Bitcoin BTCUSD and top-cap altcoins like Ether ETHUSD and Solana SOLUSD lower.
The ceasefire, mediated through Qatari and US diplomatic channels, has restored investor confidence, reducing concerns over oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
This reprieve has restored risk-on sentiment, with Bitcoin climbing as high as $106,000 on June 24 and Ether edging above $2,400. XRP (XRP), SOL and Dogecoin (DOGE) also witnessed significant gains, up 7.2%, 8% and 8.1%, respectively.
Massive short liquidations fuel price surge
Another driver of today’s rally is a wave of short liquidations that have triggered a significant short squeeze.
In the past 24 hours, over $471 million in crypto positions have been liquidated across the crypto market, with approximately $358 million representing short position liquidations.
Short Bitcoin leveraged positions totaling $121 million have also been liquidated on the day.
Total crypto market cap forms a bull flag
TOTAL, or the combined market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, has formed a bull flag pattern in the daily time frame, signaling potential for further upside. Despite recent volatility, the market cap has rebounded to $3.22 trillion.
FX option expiries for 24 June 10am New York cut
There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will revolve around market flows as traders fade the geopolitical tensions in the past two weeks. In particular, the dollar may be hurt on multiple fronts so keep an eye out for that.
One being the ebbing of safety flows and markets turning back towards a more risk-on mood. The second being a bit of a turn in the Fed bias after Bowman’s more dovish shift yesterday here. That makes for a bit of a double whammy for the dollar in a time when markets are adjusting back.
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