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Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is trading close to unchanged exdcewpt vs a firm,er AUDUSD and NZDUSD) on China stimulus hopes and after an opening week gap up in crude opil faling to follow through and has since retreated. This comes despite increased US-Iran attacks and concerns that they could escalate further.
So in a 1 + 1 doesn’t equial 2 start to the week markets are taking their cues from the oil market.
Forex market Snapshot
US yields coming off post-CPI lows has given the uSD some support although it remains down on the day.
Outperformers:: NZD, AUD, CAD, CHF
NZDUSD is firming primarily due to a combination of a hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate-hiking cycle and recent positive domestic economic data.
Underperformer JPY
Tells you where the cross flows are going
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is trading mixed despite the risk on mood elsewhere. Big move has been in AUNZD which is weaker after the REBNZ decision, boosting NZDUSD while AUDUSD retreats,
Otherwise, let’s see if the USD starts to correlate (i.e. weaker) if the risk on mood continues. as all eyes will be on the White Houise cabinet meeting today.
NZDUSD(4HR)
The kiwi dollar traded near $0.5856 after falling by 0.9% to $0.5840 overnight, ending a fortnight of gains with a week-on-week fall of 0.4%. The kiwi was buoyed by positive inflation figures and hopes for a possible interest rate hike in coming weeks.
Resistance can be found near $0.5900 and $0.5930, with the trend line and EMAs serving as near-term support.
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is trading firmer as global markets turn defensive awaiting clarity over whether/when Iran will be sending a delegation for peace talks. Given so many misleading and conflicting headlines,from various sources, traders have little choice but to turn cautious.
EURUSD, also hit by a weak ZEW. is so far holding above 1.,1750. USDJPY is back above 159 and GBPUSD has pivoted 1.35.
In Japan, consensus seems to be for the BoJ to have a hawkish hold on rates in April.
AUDUSD is underperforming while NZDUSD is overperforming (but off its high)Â as a May rate hike has been put on the table following the CPI report (note weaker AUDNZD cross).
NZDUSD (4HR)
The kiwi dollar remains slightly pressured in recent trading after failing to sustain gains above the 0.5920 resistance. The pair continues to find support at the EMA50 near 0.5860 stabilising the pair within a broader corrective bullish structure.
Immediate support is seen at 0.5860, followed by 0.5840. A break below these areas could expose deeper support toward 0.5760. On the upside, a sustained move above 0.5940 is needed to confirm further bullish continuation
Forex Market Snapshot
Given how many opening week gaps have not followed through during this crisis, it should not be a surprise to see caution at yet another one to start this week.
This has seen opening week gaps filled in EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD while the USDJPY gap remains open. There were no gaps seen in USDCAD and USDCHF.
This leaves the focus on news headlines with forex and other markets following the lead set by crude oul.
NZDUSD (4HR)
The kiwi dollar has declined in recent trading session similar to AUDUSD, with the New Zealand Dollar losing its two-day gain and now trading at $0.571. The RBNZ has stated that oil price increases could boost inflation, affecting household spending.
The NZDUSD is under pressure, with interest rates likely to be held by the Reserve Bank next week. The possibility of a rate hike in May has fallen to 25% from 60% last week.
NZDUSD (1HR)
The kiwi dollar is under bearish pressure and is continuing to trend downwards through all major moving averages and in an overall descending pattern. Price has clearly broken through a major support area and is only experiencing a weak retrace on the downside.
Immediate support and resistance at 0.5750 and 0.5820
NZDUSD (1HR)
Governor Anna Breman said on Tuesday the RBNZ will look through temporary energy-driven inflation but is prepared to hike rates if persistent price pressures threaten inflation expectations.
The kiwi dollar slipped 0.5% overnight to $0.5800. Support is seen around $0.5765. A break below could push it further down toward $0.5712.
NZDUSD (4HR)
On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar slipped 0.1% to $0.5825 after a 0.8% drop on Friday trimmed its weekly gain to about 1%. NZDUSD continues to trade within a broader downward trend. However, the pair has begun to stabilize, holding above a key support zone after multiple tests.
Focus now turns to a speech by Anna Breman, as markets have sharply repriced expectations toward nearly 90 basis points of tightening this year, despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand previously signaling that even one rate hike was not yet certain
Support is holding near 0.5775 and resistance around 0.5880
NZDUSD (1HR)
The kiwi dollar remained under pressure, trading around 0.5856 against the US dollar, though it managed to stay above the recent low near 0.5775. Weakness in the kiwi was partly driven by cross-selling against the Australian dollar, which pushed to a fresh 13-year high against NZD
Currently, the pair is testing a short-term resistance area around 0.5860–0.5880, where momentum have started to slowdown. Stronger resistances is seen around 0.5900
NZDUSD (4HR)
The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.584, reaching its lowest level in more than seven weeks as investors became more cautious due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
NZDUSD is trading within a descending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, reflecting continued bearish momentum. The pair recently broke below a key horizontal support level near 0.5930, which has now turned into resistance and reinforced the downside pressure.
Resistance and support around 0.5800, and 0.5860.
NZDUSD(1HR)
The New Zealand dollar failed to hold above $0.5940 after climbing 0.9% overnight from a low of $0.5861. It has since moved lower again, with downward pressure continuing as the currency briefly touched $0.5880.
Key support is at $0.5837, while resistance levels are at $0.5954 and $0.6012
NZDUSD(1HR)
The New Zealand dollar edged up to $0.586 but remained close to its lowest level in six weeks, as mounting conflict in the Middle East kept investors cautious. The kiwi dollar recovered and held at $0.5940, rising 0.9% overnight
Major support lies at $0.5837, with resistance at $0.5954 and $0.6012.
NZDUSD(4HR)
Similar to AUDUSD, the New Zealand dollar initially fell to 0.5948 before trimming its losses to trade just 0.2% lower at 0.5935. The pair is holding near support at $0.5930, though this key level is beginning to look vulnerable as the four-hour candle approaches its close. Price briefly dipped below support earlier, but buyers quickly stepped in to push it higher, although, only for a bit as the price is still bearish
Overall, unlike the Australian dollar, NZDUSD appears to be yielding to mounting downside pressure. The pair remains under negative, dynamic resistance, reflected in its continued trading below the 50-period EMA, which reinforces the bearish bias in the near term.
NZDUSD(4HR)
The New Zealand dollar rose past 0.60 and reinforced its gains in the last trading session, marking a third consecutive session of gains, benefitting from a softer US dollar. However, as the new trading session began, the pair pulled back from its recent highs, encountering resistance near the upper boundary of the descending channel. The rejection from this technical barrier renewed its downside pressure as sellers stepped back in and momentum faded.
Current support around 0.5960 and 0.5920
NZDUSD (4HR)
Price action over the past two days shows that downside pressure has eased slightly, but upside momentum remains constrained. The pair briefly dipped below the EMA200 support zone around 0.5950 before attracting buyers and making a modest rebound.However, it continues to trade below the EMA100, which is now acting as dynamic resistance near the 0.6000 region. This keeps the broader corrective tone intact, with rallies still vulnerable to selling pressure. The coming trading week should provide clearer insight into whether momentum shifts toward a sustained recovery or if the broader corrective trend resumes.
NZDUSD (4HR)
Upside momentum still remains limited, as the pair continues to trade below EMA100, keeping broader downside pressure in place and reducing the likelihood of a sustained recovery near term.
The pair is currently hovering above the EMA200 support zone. A decisive move below this area could open the door toward 0.5900, while stability above it may allow for a recovery toward resistance near the recent high. For now, price action suggests a tentative rebound within a still fragile short-term environment.
Forex Market Snapshot
- The dollar is trading mixed to a touch firmer although within yesterday’s ranges except vs a weaker NZDUSD.
- USDJPY so far breaking a 5-day pivot around 153, a potential bullish sign BUT only if yesterday’s 153 91 high is taken out.
- EURUSD trading within 1.1800-50, the latter being pivotal while within 1.18-1.19
- GBPUSD has recovered some ground vs. the EUR and consolidating vs the dollar after testing sub-1.35 yesterday following the UK jobs report. GBP getting a lift today from a miss (higher than expected) CPI.
- Otherwise. US stocks ate trading higher to set a risk on mood.. Focus is on FOMC minites later on.
NZDUSD (4HR)
The New Zealand dollar slipped after RBNZ kept its cash rate unchanged, and said that monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative for an extended period, though leaving open the possibility of a rate hike later this year.
The pair is now testing a horizontal support zone around 0.5980–0.6000. A sustained move below this area could expose deeper support near 0.5900 and potentially the 200 EMA. Immediate support is around 0.5900, if the broader bullish momentum remains intact and this level holds, resistance is likely near the recent high at 0.60925.
NZDUSD moved higher today after holding above the EMA-50, confirming it as firm support. The pair remains positioned within a broader short-term bullish structure, with price trading just above the rising EMA-100 and EMA-200, reinforcing the underlying upward bias. On the upside, initial resistance is located near 0.6065–0.6080, ahead of stronger resistance around 0.6100. On the downside, a sustained move below 0.6030 could expose further downside below 0.6000
On a more fundamental side, attention has now turned to labor market data. The Q4 unemployment rate expected to hold at 5.3%, its highest level since 2016, while employment is forecast to grow by 0.3%.
NZDUSD (1HR)
NZD/USD experienced a strong bullish rally from mid-January through the end of the month. This move established a clear upward channel on the 1-hour timeframe.
As February begins, price action has slowed, with the pair currently trading around the 0.6000 psychological level. This area is acting as an important decision zone for the market. A confirmed break below channel support with strong bearish price action would be needed to fully consolidate this change in trend. Caution is advised, as the upcoming news may introduce high volatility and significantly alter the current technical outlook.
