[GVI Forex 2]

UX 10 year back to 4.20%, could act as an FX pivot

Early thoughts

Watch the 50 levels as either magnets or Friday bias setters

EURUSD 1.0850
AUDUSD .6750
USDJPY 159.50

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHARTB- .68 DEFENDED

AUDUSD paused just below .68, suggesting there was some defense of that level.

Now dependent on .6750 holding to keep a bid.

Fallback support expected between .6710-50.

Similar to others, unwinding of short JPY crosses (e.g. long AUDJPY) may have been a factor.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART – TRENDLINE BROKEN BUT…

Was it intervention or some hedge fund exiting short JPY carry trades when US yields fell after CPI?

All that matters is the market could not absorb the selling.

Key daily trendline was broken but without a close below it.

On the upside, the BoJ will not want to see it back above 160.25

In any case, the market will assune the high is in for now, but would need to get through 167.41 to put 155 in play.

Look for choppy trading but a limited upside while below 160.25.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART – Range or new highs?

 

Could the range be 2350-2450?

If so then 2400 will set its tone and dictate whether it goes for 2450.

2370-77 is fall back support.

[GVI Forex 2]

StoCks seem toi have found bottoms, should put a lid on the uSD .

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 30 MINUTE CHART – MY MOTTO

My motto: When logic says one thing and The Amazing Trader says the opposite, don’t ignore what THE AMAZING TRADER is saying

What’s it saying

In this case, falling blue lines are saying the intra-day risk had shifted to the downside. Those looking to buy the dip are trading the last episode when a new one had begun. Note I said intra-day as the dollar is still down on the day except vs the CAD,

Similar patterns are in other currencies as well after the CPI dollar dive ran out of steam.

Check out The Amazing Trader

[SF Monedge]

0860 looks decent to add some longs eventhough it is against internal metrics like forwards which are decidedly short…lets see

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPCHF 4H

Kind of a strange choice of instrument for me – Yes, it has never crossed my mind to play with this cross 😀

But one of our new members brought it up to my attention, so I added some of my own recipe to it and Voila…

Robinson saw it on time and  together we are now bringing it up to your attention.

Supports at : 1.15350 , 1.15100 & 1.14950

Resistances at : 1.15550 , 1.15750 & 1.16200

We should start paying attention to it….

Thank you Robinson for this little gem 😀

[SF Monedge]

Point of control in Vix futures is 12.98 and if the selling creeping in sticks it could hit 12.65 which is a place where there could be an added argument to take the money on Euro bids intraday.  Noting a “whale” order in my Level II, so if it isn’t a screen or a hedge its an order.

[GVI Forex 2]

If you mean turn up then nice alert.

[SF Monedge]

Volatility (sell) metrics in stocks want to turn here which should support Euro again

[GVI Forex 2]

We have a wealth of information in our blog and this is one of those articles which helps explain some of the price action, especially in equities and earler in USDJPY today.

What is a Liquidating Market and How to Trade It?

What is a Liquidating Market and How to Trade It?

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS and S&P extending declines… but Russell is up sharply… suggests some rotation with Russell benefiting from lower US yields

[SF Monedge]

Here comes the selling look to pick up Euro around 0875 futures (0850ish spot)

[SF Monedge]

Again, not tooting my/our horn, because frankly Jay who runs GVI is the one to listen to most, but … in case you missed it about a week or so ago, Michael (who I know a bit) and I called the Euro bottom (I filled one pip from the low) and everyone thought we were nuts going long.  Its possible we are worth paying attention to.  The volatility this morning is my kind of market, I get bored waiting for a 3 pip run that takes 10 hours, fast break is my game on the basketball court.  Agree with Jay, hard to make a case for long US dollar today.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 CHART – WATCH THE TRENDLINE

‘
To suggest a further retracement risk, the 1 hiur trendlkine and 5585 would need to be taken out.

Note on a 4 hour chart, the trendline has been nicjed and support is at 5575 below it.

[GVI Forex 2]

It is hard to make a case for the dollar as long as the US 10-year stays below 4.20%

Intra-day

EURUSD support 1.0868, keeps a bid while above 1.0850
GBPUSD support 1.2904 but 1.2893 is more important
USDJPY resistance 158.96 but 159.20 is more importqant

[SF Monedge]

Active this morning.  If Aussie sees 6810 hold from the 6780 bid we should see 6830 at least.

[SF Monedge]

Same as Euro with Aussie 6780-90 bid

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 1 HOUR -Profit-taking?

Move off another record high (20772) would need to trade below 20482 and then 20345-89 to suggest a risk of a further retracement.

[SF Monedge]

0860-70 zone is decent R/R for hitting the bid for resumed upside with the 2yr settling as thought earlier.  If the bias switches to risk off in Euro you can forgive yourself if longs don’t work out due to the decent R/r which is perfectly logical.  Already in from a bit lower…

[Robinson Izuchukwu]

CPI News today is wonderful, thanks Bobby for always sharing your setup on Facebook and thanks for your guidance in the Trading Club.

[GVI Forex 2]

A little deja vu as this is the volatility we used to see in the forex market on a daily basis… although USDJPY is trading more like a video game

If you are looking for a range, 158.96-157.90 occurred in a one minute candle. 159.20 is an AT resistance.

[SF Monedge]

Yen pairs did the exact opposite of everything else on the data and I’ve been aggressively selling EurJpy with quick trades on pull ups.  Now we see if those pairs join the risk on tone.  US 2yr note is firmly bid from 102’10 so that is a good spot to consider some positions if it gets there.  The market will ordinarily test the starting point roughly, hence the pullback occurring.

[SF Monedge]

Not tooting my horn just pointing out that this transpired and nothing post-CPI has changed this dynamic –

(posted yesterday early US session)

Internals showing AudJpy wants to go over the figure, time will tell.  Interestingly the sell cycle in Sterling remains intact but internals are a scorching bid, so either Sterling breaks uphill strongly today or tomorrow and establishes a new buy cycle with higher full figure prints targeting 2900 + or continues to decline toward 2780.  Perhaps consider the offer around 2900/10.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY trendline broken…watch the close vs it

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART – Trendline

USDJPY finally correlating with US yielkds if you call a freefall correlation

Key level is the major trendline at 157.84

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY in freefall.. smells like BoJ but could well be someone bailing out of a short JPY positioin as US yields fall sharply

[GVI Forex 2]

Softer CPI – reaction

Lower jobless claims – ignored

See our Economic Calendar

[Belgrade Bobby]

I don’t trade Data, I don’t pay much attention to them, but seems as Data follows what I write 😀

[Author]

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