[SF Monedge]

Data/news releases is only justification to explain to your boss why you ran stops if you are a bank trader.  Not much else unless you are running a billion dollar portfolio.

[SF Monedge]

Why your predesigned indicators don’t work – by a former blackballed CTA – so I hit Aussie right on the chin purely out of experience when every indicator said otherwise, knowing if I go to sleep the banks will do a stop run on my position overnight but they can’t afford to take it further and so I sat on it and the profit target filled.  So was flat on the backdraft and now back in flipping the bird and listening to “Crazy Babies” by Ozzie Ozzborne lol.   They didn’t get me this time.   That, ladies and gentlemen, is trading.  Other than Amazing Trader, not much else works other than option contracts.

[SF Monedge]

Why your predesigned indicators don’t work – by a former blackballed CTA because I was that good and stepped on some toes lol – so I hit Aussie right on the chin purely out of experience when every indicator said otherwise, knowing if I go to sleep the banks will do a stop run on my position overnight but they can’t afford to take it further and so I sat on it and the profit target filled.  So was flat on the backdraft and now back in flipping the bird and listening to “Crazy Babies” by Ozzie Ozzborne lol.   They didn’t get me this time.   That, ladies and gentlemen, is trading.  Other than Amazing Trader, not much else works other than option contracts.

[GVI Forex 2]

Double whammy

Weak PPI and higher jobless claims but reaction so far limited.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 1H

Support at 1.07850 , 1.07650

Resistance at 1.08000 , 1.08200 & 1.08400

 

[GVI Forex 2]

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in markets from Dhara Ranasinghe.

It’s back to the markets versus the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Morning Bid: The day after the Fed>

[Mtl JP]

Range

DOJI (the same thing in Japanese)

same close as open.  tells you nothing other than moment of indecision

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Range?

 

 

What can I say abiut USDJPY that I haven;t said before?

Given the BoJ threat, I am looking at 155-158 as the range until proven otherwise, with 156.50 a bias setting midpoint.

Key events:

US data (Weekly jobless claims and PPI)

BoJ minetary policy decision on Friday

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHATRT – FIBO TIME

 

 

With key supports not close, suggest looking at retracement levels here as well.

So far, it has paused around the 50% FIBO at 1.2774 (low 1.2772)

See our Fibonacci calculator for a useful tool

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Retracements or faikures?

 

 

With the dollar recovering after yesterday’s stright line data driven moves that paused shy of recent dollar lows, look at FIBO levels if yiu do not see any nearby levels.(e.g. 50% of 6578-6702 = 6639)

See our Fibonacci calculator for a useful tool

[michael Calif]

…   misprint:  USD futures remain Long on pullback from mid-April highs   :Option Profile

[michael Calif]

Euro futures remain Long from mid-April low   :Option Profile

[Belgrade Bobby]

To register for the Competition Click HERE

 

[SF Monedge]

So I saw the same old thing yesterday pre-data, with the stalls and the contra-activity.  If they are buying into data that heavy what do you think they are doing?  Is big money confused?  Is it a conspiracy?  No.  They are running 100k times what you do.  They compete with other banks who don’t oblige to be on the same team.  So, price discovery happens.  Big guns win every time.  Right now the market is dazed and waiting for the next conviction post-Fed.  Something is going to break.  My thought is maybe not the Fed.  So unless something profound changes it is hgher for longer and they will price in mistakes.   Dollar is bid, which is why I sold AudUsd this morning vs Euro because they are a little fluffy over there.  The only thing that would make Aussie go higher is a gold run or war.  From here.

[SF Monedge]

Bobby – it seems, as one of our esteemed posters pointed out to me in private earlier, Apple and Musk are fighting.  Who would you bet on if it were a boxing match?  I’m going Apple because of muscle but Elon packs a punch too.  I’m going Elon, the Apple squeals to the regulators and puts Elon on the hot seat.  But he doesn’t care.  He has a chip and is far from dumb.  Apple reached with the latest release, albeit pretty cool.  Elon just keeps launching rockets.  At some point, as a former boxer, one of those is going to land and the other guy is in trouble lol.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Aapl Apple

Apple shares are on a notable hot streak that’s helping the company reclaim the title of most valuable in the U.S.

The stock (AAPL) is up 13.8% across the past two trading sessions, putting it on track for its biggest two-day percentage gain since the stretch that ended Nov. 24, 2008.

In turn, Apple’s market capitalization has exploded. With shares up about 6% in intraday action, those gains would translate to a $3.37 trillion market cap at Wednesday’s close.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Back to the breakdown level

 

 

USDJPY is backpivoting its earlier  breakdown level. This leaves 156.50 as a neutral midpoint if you assume a 155-158 range.

[Belgrade Bobby]

NASDAQ 100

New high and just below the resistance line. If closes the day above 19400 new advances might be seen.

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

GME GameStop Corp (NYSE)

Seems as someone / something (smart ) is Selling it on any Uptick .

Support waiting at 22.80 now

 

[GVI Forex 2]

UA YIELDS MOVING UP AS POWELL FINISHES HIS PRESSER…fx CORRELATING

[Belgrade Bobby]

Fed Holds Rates at 5.50%, Trims Down Projections to One From Three Cuts This Year

 

·         Fed holds rates steady at 5.50%.

·         Stocks rocket higher anyway.

·         Fed officials mixed on rate cuts.

 

EURUSD 4h

Pair didn’t come even close to 1.09 and started retracing form the daily high .

Support at 1.08000, 1.07800 and 1.07400

Daily close below 1.08000 would be pretty bearish.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

nas100 30 minute chart – another record

 

AS I HAVE BEEN NOTING THERE IS NIO REASON TO STAND IN FRONT OF THIS FREIGHT TRAIN UNTIL THERE IS A REASON TO DO SO.

For today, a top seems to be in but the highlight line needs to be broken to suggest more profit taking.

Note, using CFD feeds, I prefer to point out the patterns so you can see something similar on yoiur chart since levels can vary as price feeds can vary between brokers, even quoting the same symbols/

[GVI Forex 2]

Powell and Fed => not dovish => data dependent

[Mtl JP]

and of course for jerome’s essplaings and rationalizations

that is also what players are likely try to game

[Mtl JP]

Wait is on for the dot plots.

I ve posted on the dots earlier

[Mtl JP]

wait for FOMC is over

chicken stays pat.

as expected

[Mtl JP]

Wait is on for the FOMC.  indeed. euro is at 1.0840

where will it be after the FOMC if it comes out as market is expecting ie. pat

 

TIA !

[GVI Forex 2]

Wait is on for the FOMC and the dot plots.

Logic says should the Fed/Powell and the dot plots come across in any way hawkish expect dollar sellers to be lying in wait.

[SF Monedge]

Here is a thought for retail participants trying their best to make money for their wives with the $1,000 they have.  One of the better traders I ran across was a guy named Erik from Russia who traded out of a Tokyo based firm where we traded routinely from a San Francisco office together, physically.

He employed Elliot Waves and was quite successful at it.  If you consider that large money often moves in tranches and through multiple “houses” then the capital hits markets in waves (if a firm is big enough that can be almost the only way they can do it).  There is a philosophy to employing Elliot Waves but it is based on a real and reoccurring element that MUST be used by larger institutions.  It also can help you not go cray cray trying to figure everything out especially after a series of losses.  You just identify and execute accordingly.  He definitely made money.

[SF Monedge]

Bobby – 3:28

Bobby, thanks, refreshing to receive support from a good person and professional.

These competitions were either all by invite where I was flown to other cities, or remotely with real bankers from this and other countries.  The guy from Great Western Bank in Los Angeles with no arm was exceptional and was not arrogant.  Another long time icon from Lousiana ports who led the import growth there was immensely responsible in approach but with not flashy gains.  Another from Tokyo was drunk on Sake half the time but funny and playful and really, really, really good when he felt like contributing, but he would only do so if he felt you are not an insulting jerk.  The best was Ron Carr, CTA in New York.  Great guy, former floor trader, ran firms, fortune 500, the works.  Sent his wife flowers when he passed.  We traded options and futures and spot every morning after that together on mutual accounts for years.

Every single one of them employed momentum with a keen understanding of key leveling but ONLY as a means to know where the edge of the water likely is (alligators in there).

[Author]

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