[SF Monedge]

I got out of Yen with a very small win btw, so no position(s) held there.  Will not entertain the pair until post-PCE.

[SF Monedge]

The fact that Dollar Index is dropping and UsdJpy is just sitting there is reinforcing my view of recent weeks that the pair is still just a cat and mouse speculatory game between some major entities and Rambo (Japan Monetary Fund & Bank of Japan).  Japan already warned them to not push it too far but is in a difficult position.  Therefore, since they are positioned long and extensively from far below current market levels, they can afford to take a hit (intervention) from BoJ and still run it uphill.  They are waiting for PCE.  Most other pairs are operating according to standard operating procedure (fundamentals and economic/business climate impact).

The FED, while beginning to consider cutting rates, simply is not there yet and appropriately needs to see more as a group.  So the hyperbole of 5 rate cuts we heard a year ago from talking heads, or the rate hike hyperbole, has been quite the reflection of whom to “relocate” in your firm and whom to keep.

JP 1:43 – Preposterous, she is holy lol.  She saw no increase in the price of eggs.

[Mtl JP]

SF – upon verification, none of the three food marts in her neighborhood have confirmed ever seeing her shopping.

it would appear that Yellen LIED

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP  4 HOUR CHART = PRE-ELECTION FLOWS

It is hard to say whether the move up in EURGBP is quarter end related or some position adjustments ahead of next week’s UK election.

If you are looking for a source of earlier EURUSD demand and the gBPUSD lag, look no further than EURGBP.

As this chart shows, the move up [aused below key resistance (.8478), allowing GBPUSD to play some catch-up. Upiside will be conyained if this level holds.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Another case today with the market grasping at straws with the dollar reacting to a modest dovish reaction to US data. This is another case of the reaction to news being more important than the news itself.

Watch EURUSD 1.0720 as this seems to be the pivotal level once again.

 

 

[SF Monedge]

This morning’s data would be consistent with one more bit of ammunition for the FED to inch closer to cutting.  When they cut it will not be a one and done and wait and see.  It will the be the first in a series of cuts over time, with intent and for duration.  The data is reinforcing slowing economic conditions.  That is not a prepared statement, I wrote that on the spot lol.

JP 12:09 – I could not believe my ears yesterday listening to Yellen.  A complete political weapon veiled in the appearance of an economic magistrate.  It is the little snippets she sneaks in which you know if you are a student of verbiage, which are directed toward team ideology agendas.

Euro 0720 is an issue that must be pierced and hold for the pair to continue in my view.

[Mtl JP]

USDx 105.60
–
I am thinking using the 1 minute chart of the 10-yr yield side-by-side with dlrchf for confirmation of sustained “market energy” (ya, just like the FED’s method for monitoring confidence) can yield some scalping trading opps.

An interesting pricing junction may appear at 8992 dlrch, little bit like deciding to squeeze-pierce or not a boil.

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up areis weekly US jobless claims, which the market has elevated in importance although not top tier data and other data as well.

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

With a frenetic week of politicking ahead in the United States, France and Britain, world stock markets held the line on Thursday, sovereign bonds were edgier and the dollar was buoyant.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican former president Donald Trump face off in a TV debate later today – sounding the klaxon in markets for November’s election campaign. A second debate is scheduled for Sept. 10.

Morning Bid: US TV faceoff eyed, ailing yen steadies

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0699
–
macron apparently going loopey, maybe losing his mind ..

Bloomberg – Even Macron’s Closest Allies Fear His Brand Is Toxic
“The problem of how to make the 46-year-old leader keep a low profile has become more pressing as his behavior grows erratic. Just this week he spoke to the nation in a nearly two-hour long podcast interview, warning of a “civil war” should the far-right and or the leftist bloc prevail.1 day ago”

maybe the “problem” will become a profit skimming opportunity

[GVI Forex 2]

This feels like the calm before the storm:

Biden-Trump debate tonight

US PCE and month/quarter end on Friday

Sunday’s first round of French elections

My gut says be wary of the BoJ when markets turn thin either before or after the weekend

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.0700 PRINTS, PATTERN EXTENDED TO 5 DAYS IN A ROW.- NO STOPS THERE

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX 4 HOUR CHART = EURUSD PROXY *57.6% OF THE INDEX)

As noted yesterday, the najor level is at 106.60 and would probably need a breah of EURUSD 1,0649 to challenge this level.

To suggest a EURUSD boiunce is more than a correction, 105.62 would probably need to be broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD ONE HOUR CHART = FOCUS ON 1.0700

 

As this chart shows the 1.0700 level is the key one on this chart

The significance of 1.0700 goes beyond just being a chart level. The market has traded on both sides of this 1.0700 FOR four sessions in a row so a focus will be on whether this pattern is extended (high so far 1.0699).

This is one of the patterns I look at as the longer it foes on the greater the chance of a directional move once it is broken.

 

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

Very Important Data today and tomorrow – Economic Data Calendar 

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

Resistances : 0.89850 , 0.89950 & 0.90450

Supports : 0.89500 , 0.89200 & 0.88750

Now this pair’s faith directly depends on EURUSD – If EUR losses footing at 1.06500 a big slide begins and USDCHF will have to follow the suit (in the opposite direction of course ), like it or not.

However, if EUR starts turning Up, this will be just a correctional move , before it continues the journey to 0.85500

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports at : 1.06850 , 1.06750 & 1.06550

Resistances at : 1.07000, 1.07150 & 1.07400

A new wave Up is forming ,and time working for EUR now.

[michael Calif]

nearby Euro futures remain Long for the near term   :gtwo3

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Weekly

As we are approaching the Major support at 1.06500 , let’s look at it on the bigger time frame.

We have two more days to go through that support, or things might change radically.

It is that timing part of the trading…

Also, have to mention one even more important thing – it has to close below 1.06500 to be sure we are on the road down.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nasdaq – NDX

Supports 19.650.00, 19.380.00 , 18.815.00

Resistance 19.950.00

Holding nicely –  next target is at 20.500.00

[Belgrade Bobby]

Apple Inc – AAPL

Supports at 212.00 & 209.00

Resistance at 218.00 & 220.00

If buying hysteria continues, everything is possible, but technically speaking this is way too sharp for Apple to continue up without at least a bit of a correction.

[Belgrade Bobby]

GME – GameStop Corp

Important levels : 23.00 , 20.80 & 16.75

If we give it a chance for a bit and talk about possibility to go Up again, 30.00 is the breaking point – Resistance above which it can shoot high – and that is exactly what I said – possibility to dream of.

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD Daily

Supports at : 58.400.00 , 56.200.00 & 55.100.00

Resistances at : 62.100.00, 62.750 & 65.000.00

Pattern wise, tomorrow we should see another leg Down.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART = PAUSE OR BREAKDOWN?

 

With the exception of the AUDUSD, which gave back its post-CPI gains, it has been a USD day with the highlight the USDJPY breakout SMASHING through 160.16.

EURUSD joined in the party and although the  was low just 1 pip below 1.0667, it is probably only a pause unless 1.0700+ is renewed.

Should 1.0666-67 be firmly broken, 1.0649 and 1.0600 become the targets.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

Resistances at : 0.89900 , 0.90250 & 0.91900

Supports at  : 0.89450 , 0.89150 & 0.88700

See how my “historical” trend line worked…now it all looks very logical and even expected.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

Supports at : 160.350, 159.900 & 158.850

Resistance – what resistance ??

Unless Ninjas from BoJ comes in overnight ( or whenever they feel like it ) , we are facing 164.000 +

In my opinion, that is the level that BoJ has to protect as once above, it opens the way all the way to 175.000….

[Mtl JP]

the 10yr yield may be uP BUT 1.0667 did not come close to cracking

looks like a good defence of price level for now

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year bond yield is up 7.4 bps at 4.314%

[SF Monedge]

One final note and I will stop obnoxiously clogging the forum.  My opinion carries a little weight.  It is important to remember I know what it is like to run a national bank program at a headquarters with 726 employees covering $16 billion in assets and was the star of the show in some respects eventually.  Have seen a thing or two.  Also, I have found a few of you “youtube gurus and forex guru’s out their claiming to have backgrounds stealing my commentary from this and other places.  Please do so with care and responsibility, and your own input as well, thank you.

[SF Monedge]

MoF/BoJ are likely waiting for this week’s pivotal US data to conclude and resulting price activity to answer the question of whether to intervene or not.  The bottom line, if I were a bank VP, is the Yen simply must begin to appreciate for the good of the Japan economy.  I believe it will see 150 region inevitably but that is months down the road, so then if you are on the trade the problem to solve becomes efficient scaling in and out along the way (your boss is happy and the bills are paid if you are taking profits).  That is where the endless intra-day battles you endured sharpened your skill levels and you can be pretty good at it.

With reference to the Euro comment and where to position, that is for longs (closer to the low end of a big figure).  If going short, you want to make the throw closer to the high end of a big figure.  Same for Intra-day (.8 vs .2 or just go .5 to make sure you are in the trade).  I am only so confident in the Euro economic performance looking out, and the US is beginning to breathe heavy a little, so being long Euro/stocks is a bit dicey from here but barring something profound the train should keep rolling.

Precision and an awareness of fundamentals both matter.

[Author]

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