[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART – ONLY ONE LEVEL MATTERS

The only level that matters is USDJPY 150 as that will dictate whether it makes a run at 145-148 (next target is at 145,89) or pauses.

On the upside, 150.25-80 would need to be overcome to slow the threat.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – WAITING FOR THE BOE

 

Consolidating 1.28-1.29 pre-BOE

Key levels outside of this range

1.2777 (also 61.8%)

1.2937

If BOE does not cut rates then it is just a matter of timing, when not if.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – WAITING FOR THE BOE

 

Consolidating 1.28-1.29 pre-BOE

Key levels outside of this range

1.2777 (also 61.8%)

1.2937

If BOE does not cut rates then it is just a matter of timing, when not if.

[GVI Forex 2]

August BoE MPC Preview: Doves edging towards a majority

Forecasters are very unsure about which way this month’s BoE MPC announcement will go but, on balance, seem to expect what would be the first cut in Bank Rate since March 2020. However, if so, it is likely to be a very close vote. June saw a relatively clear 7-2 split in favour of no change but official comments since then have hinted that the easing camp might now have a small majority. That said, uncertainty has been heightened by the blackout period for central bank rhetoric in the run up to the 4 July general election and with core inflation still high, a steady policy stance would hardly come as a big surprise. A 25 basis point reduction would put Bank Rate at 5.0 percent, matching its lowest level since May 2023….

Econoday

[Mtl JP]

Key word: COULD
post-jerome presser headline round-up:

WSJ – By Nick Timiraos
Federal Reserve Clears Path for September Rate Cut
Officials made two important changes to their policy statement that acknowledged recent progress in their inflation fight and that pivoted closer to lowering rates without making any explicit commitment.

CNBC – By Darla Mercado
Fed recap: Chair Powell gives the September rate cut signal traders were hoping for
” Powell said a rate cut in September is “on the table,” provided the inflation data continues to be encouraging.”

New York Times
Rate Cut ‘Could Be on the Table’ at Next Fed Meeting, Powell Says
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, suggested an interest rate cut could be on the horizon after the central bank held rates steady at its most recent meeting.

CNN
Fed opts to hold interest rates steady — but a cut could be coming in September
“A rate cut could be on the table in the September meeting,”
Powell said Fed officials will have to weigh the “totality of the data.”

“Certainty is not a word that we have in our business,”

FoxNews
“A reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.”

“The question will be whether the totality of the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks are consistent with rising confidence on inflation and maintaining a solid labor market,” Powell said. “If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.”

FT
Federal Reserve says first cut to US interest rates could come in September

all aboard, all on the same side of the boat !

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.03

when solid turns to liquid physicists call that melting.
biologists call that diar …

good earlier alert n warning SF !

[SF Monedge]

Euro/Moscow metrics internals are stacked heavily long side.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nasdaq – NDX
Nasdaq rise on chip sector rally, Fed signals of upcoming rate cut
Nasdaq finished higher on Wednesday as chip stocks rallied and the Federal Reserve left U.S. interest rates unchanged but indicated it could begin easing monetary policy in September if inflation cools.

The Fed kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range as it ended its two-day policymaking meeting on Wednesday, but opened the door to easing in September, seven weeks shy of the November U.S. elections.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers discussed the case for cutting rates, but a “strong majority” agreed that now was not the appropriate time.

[Mtl JP]

4.056%

somewhat mixed FX correlation reactions with us 10-yr yield prancing
maybe needs bit of time to settle down to normality

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold Daily

Gold posts record-high finish, lifted by Fed rate-cut hopes, Middle East violence

Gold futures settled sharply higher Wednesday, with prices marking a fresh record-high finish, as expectations for a U.S. interest-rate cut in the coming months and violence in the Middle East lifted the precious metal’s investment appeal.

“Heightened Middle East tensions and hopes for Fed rate cuts have restored gold” back above the psychologically important $2,400 level

Technical view : Channel Support held and now we have to see how it will react on previous high 2483.68 and if above next hurdle is at 2.600

Bullish as bullish can be 😀

[SF Monedge]

JP – July 31, 2024 at 7:37 pm – Only sane 1st possibility would be at Euro 0860 is in my view but highly debatable.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.075 , just above 4.072 LOD

I am looking for sign(s) the dip is over,
like a good – i.e low risk – place now to play for a pop in yield

[SF Monedge]

JP – Powell is scheduled in September for V=erbal Transition Surgery.  They already did “the other one.”

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 4.09% -0.05
miaa-eh

next thing is to keep an eye out for certain FED yakkers
explaining what Jerome said, intended to say and what he wanted to be understood by players

[Mtl JP]

CERTAINTY
–
some jurno cretin asking jerome about certainty

where did thic clown come from ?
amazing cool respectable reply from jerome chuckle

[Mtl JP]

jerome s repeated “need more data to gain more confidence” before cut

sofar players appear hard of hearing

[Mtl JP]

rofl

wanna see more data to gain more confidence

I LOVE you jerome ! I know what bothers you

[Mtl JP]

hahahahahahahaha

not quite at that point yet (i.e sweet confidence point) – jerome

hahahahahahahahahahaha

[Mtl JP]

did jerome just p!ss on the flames of sept cut ?

[Mtl JP]

ya probably good tactic to wait
for the cut enthusiasts to empty their bladder

[SF Monedge]

JP – I wouldn’t touch it until 40 or lower, yields have been very decoupled with DX of late as well.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.11% LoD 4.09

misery or opportunity ?

[SF Monedge]

July 31, 2024 at 4:33 pm – Bobby, for you I will invent the Dcam indicator (Darn Convergence Accumulation Meter) !

Side note, I very much like your view on Euro.  Therefore I already have multiple staged and hedged orders especially at 10720 and 10680.  For me it is more about how you trade vs prognostication, which is what analysts are paid for.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

If there wasn’t for the FOMC tonight , I would gladly say – 1.06850 here we come…

So let’s say it this way – Close below 1.08200 tonight would be calling for it.

Only Close above 1.08400 would negate this bearish sentiment.

p.s. Monedge – my Pattern/macd combination can do that – every day, 5 days a week 😛

[SF Monedge]

One last thing and I will concede to the forum and stop hogging it until after the Moscow Fed –

Here is a small example of what I mean by being able to visualize the market – that little contra-flow Canadian Dollar trade I made earlier where I bought into a selling market?  I filled at one HALF pip above the low and made 25.

Your accountant can’t do that.  Your guru subscription can’t do that.  Your Macd can’t do that.

[SF Monedge]

As Jay pointed out and since we have 3 hours to kill before the Moscow Fed Announcement, I have a suggestion for novice traders from spending light years of time on technical analysis and drawing lines as both a normal person and an investment firm executive.  You don’t need indicators.  You can get to a point where you can simply see without them and you know how to play ball at a high level.  Not many get there.  You have to really want it.

That said –

Investors want structure and reasons why you allocate if they are to give you the tools to work with.  They leave little room for pure absolute skill because they don’t understand it.  A bit like an accountant who explains how to be an athlete where the numbers simply do not reflect some things.

So if you are going to secure funds you need a conservative and structured approach which includes a defined process of analysis and risk allocation.  Regulatory bodies want it that way as well.  Your indicators give you something to talk about, but it always comes down to what your “margin at risk ratio” is, which is how much you allocate at any given time from the total portfolio based on those defined parameters.  The going rule has been if you go over 4% you are frowned upon as being a “maverick.”

[SF Monedge]

The way I expect Canadian to go is another try for 3900 which doesn’t sustain, followed by a proper rebalancing toward 3700, followed by a return speculatory venture toward 3800, and a crescendo toward 3650ish.  The “ish” is vital.  Its all about the Gamma Ray JP, all about the Gamma Ray.

[GVI Forex 2]

power of 50

eurusd last at 1.0824 vs. a high at 1.08495

HIDDEN HAND (BOJ?)

USDJPY is back above 150 after a low at 149.63

3 HOURS UNTIL FOMC TIME

[SF Monedge]

JP: at 2:56 pm

Yes.  The Handy Dandy Gamma Ray Technical Analysis Auto Line Drawing AI Crypto Killer.  With a moving average of … Itself.  Which automatically draws … lines.

I invented while listening to the old rock band Gamma, featuring Ronnie Montrose.

Never fails.

[SF Monedge]

Agreed, likely 3850 starts having issues and we see 3700ish in coming days barring the unusual one might think.  (re: JP // at 2:27 pm)

[Author]

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