[Mtl JP]

THE DEBATE addendum
–
At the end making closing statement
Trump will be last to speak.

I think THAT is huge advantage from a communications point of view

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF 4 HOUR CHART – .9000 LOOMS?

Currently trapped between .8942-52 and .8983-93, closer to the top end with .9000 looming.

[SF Monedge]

JP – I kid not, this is the absolute truth.  As a former boxer who was competing every day/night to be a backup on the US boxing team eons ago, and was insured by USA boxing until 2014, this is my take …. What if it is a dual technical knockout?  One match we both scored a technical knockout with the very same punch at the very same time and were sitting there on the mat looking at eachother laughing trying to shake it off.  Became friends.  What if a draw?  A lot of wine in homes across the world will have been wasted and the market will not know what to do lol.

[Mtl JP]

THE DEBATE
–
Allegedly a high stakes consequential political debate

As a student of debates, I take note that (both have agreed)
– microphones muted when the other is talking
– debaters will be standing (for 90 minutes)
– they ll each have two minutes for answers and one minute for rebutle
– there will be split-screen for reaction (I suppose body language interpretations)

Some suggest that “biden might surprise” (implication being as an underdog land a knockout)

Others are mumbling that the dems have been for a while now trying to jettison the man with an ego (that would be joe) from running. So the question is if the debate is poison chalice to sink joe and immediately the next day – a Friday – execute a biden switcheroo.

And so there is the one unknown in my book: how would market players react if biden gets kicked off on the garbage heap of history.

[SF Monedge]

Explanation for UsdChf sell is as follows and a comment on Amazing Trader:  This market is not going to test the fence much before PCE tomorrow (barring a post-debate rash).  They may well challenge the figure (9000) but not with much conviction one would think and so are widespread algorithms in use on an automated scale by banks in current market conditions.  Therefore, and considering I am in a contra-trade mood this week, shorting dollar.  Verifiably 9/10 of my approach, like most CTA’s is to trade with momentum not against it.  At times it may apply though.

I have my own system, however …. If you look closely at Amazing Trader, it will verify what and what is not proper momentum entry.  For anyone, regardless of expertise level, that is of immense value.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 5 MINUTE CHART – WHY II LOVE AT

One look at this chart (and I could have posted something similar in other currencies), tells me why I love The Amazing Trader (AT)

Look at the falling blue (called ladder) lines. It paints a clear picture.

At a minimum, it tells me that the market had shifted direction and not lto ook to buy a dip. That train had passed.

At best, go with the momentum.

In any case, 1.0700 was tested, holding so far and limits downside as long as it holds.

[SF Monedge]

JP – Too many truffles and caviar goes to the head and may be a root cause of … “Catch me if you can” syndrome.  Side note, I just made the forever preached against and forbidden “anger trade” in UsdChf (sell side).  If it wins and no one realizes the crime I will claim excellence.  Like Janet.

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets reverting to form with another fakeout, this time on the USD downside.

[Mtl JP]

SF yellen just keeps on displaying her stupidity

how can she NOT think that folks will verify her statements on this day and age of fact-checking for lies, falsehoods and mendacity

and this is a person who traipses around the world stage throwing arounds threats of sanctions and alleged serious consequences thinking she is a world “statesman”

[michael Calif]

nearby Yen futures are still betting Short USDJPY    :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

I got out of Yen with a very small win btw, so no position(s) held there.  Will not entertain the pair until post-PCE.

[SF Monedge]

The fact that Dollar Index is dropping and UsdJpy is just sitting there is reinforcing my view of recent weeks that the pair is still just a cat and mouse speculatory game between some major entities and Rambo (Japan Monetary Fund & Bank of Japan).  Japan already warned them to not push it too far but is in a difficult position.  Therefore, since they are positioned long and extensively from far below current market levels, they can afford to take a hit (intervention) from BoJ and still run it uphill.  They are waiting for PCE.  Most other pairs are operating according to standard operating procedure (fundamentals and economic/business climate impact).

The FED, while beginning to consider cutting rates, simply is not there yet and appropriately needs to see more as a group.  So the hyperbole of 5 rate cuts we heard a year ago from talking heads, or the rate hike hyperbole, has been quite the reflection of whom to “relocate” in your firm and whom to keep.

JP 1:43 – Preposterous, she is holy lol.  She saw no increase in the price of eggs.

[Mtl JP]

SF – upon verification, none of the three food marts in her neighborhood have confirmed ever seeing her shopping.

it would appear that Yellen LIED

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP  4 HOUR CHART = PRE-ELECTION FLOWS

It is hard to say whether the move up in EURGBP is quarter end related or some position adjustments ahead of next week’s UK election.

If you are looking for a source of earlier EURUSD demand and the gBPUSD lag, look no further than EURGBP.

As this chart shows, the move up [aused below key resistance (.8478), allowing GBPUSD to play some catch-up. Upiside will be conyained if this level holds.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Another case today with the market grasping at straws with the dollar reacting to a modest dovish reaction to US data. This is another case of the reaction to news being more important than the news itself.

Watch EURUSD 1.0720 as this seems to be the pivotal level once again.

 

 

[SF Monedge]

This morning’s data would be consistent with one more bit of ammunition for the FED to inch closer to cutting.  When they cut it will not be a one and done and wait and see.  It will the be the first in a series of cuts over time, with intent and for duration.  The data is reinforcing slowing economic conditions.  That is not a prepared statement, I wrote that on the spot lol.

JP 12:09 – I could not believe my ears yesterday listening to Yellen.  A complete political weapon veiled in the appearance of an economic magistrate.  It is the little snippets she sneaks in which you know if you are a student of verbiage, which are directed toward team ideology agendas.

Euro 0720 is an issue that must be pierced and hold for the pair to continue in my view.

[Mtl JP]

USDx 105.60
–
I am thinking using the 1 minute chart of the 10-yr yield side-by-side with dlrchf for confirmation of sustained “market energy” (ya, just like the FED’s method for monitoring confidence) can yield some scalping trading opps.

An interesting pricing junction may appear at 8992 dlrch, little bit like deciding to squeeze-pierce or not a boil.

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up areis weekly US jobless claims, which the market has elevated in importance although not top tier data and other data as well.

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

With a frenetic week of politicking ahead in the United States, France and Britain, world stock markets held the line on Thursday, sovereign bonds were edgier and the dollar was buoyant.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican former president Donald Trump face off in a TV debate later today – sounding the klaxon in markets for November’s election campaign. A second debate is scheduled for Sept. 10.

Morning Bid: US TV faceoff eyed, ailing yen steadies

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0699
–
macron apparently going loopey, maybe losing his mind ..

Bloomberg – Even Macron’s Closest Allies Fear His Brand Is Toxic
“The problem of how to make the 46-year-old leader keep a low profile has become more pressing as his behavior grows erratic. Just this week he spoke to the nation in a nearly two-hour long podcast interview, warning of a “civil war” should the far-right and or the leftist bloc prevail.1 day ago”

maybe the “problem” will become a profit skimming opportunity

[GVI Forex 2]

This feels like the calm before the storm:

Biden-Trump debate tonight

US PCE and month/quarter end on Friday

Sunday’s first round of French elections

My gut says be wary of the BoJ when markets turn thin either before or after the weekend

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.0700 PRINTS, PATTERN EXTENDED TO 5 DAYS IN A ROW.- NO STOPS THERE

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX 4 HOUR CHART = EURUSD PROXY *57.6% OF THE INDEX)

As noted yesterday, the najor level is at 106.60 and would probably need a breah of EURUSD 1,0649 to challenge this level.

To suggest a EURUSD boiunce is more than a correction, 105.62 would probably need to be broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD ONE HOUR CHART = FOCUS ON 1.0700

 

As this chart shows the 1.0700 level is the key one on this chart

The significance of 1.0700 goes beyond just being a chart level. The market has traded on both sides of this 1.0700 FOR four sessions in a row so a focus will be on whether this pattern is extended (high so far 1.0699).

This is one of the patterns I look at as the longer it foes on the greater the chance of a directional move once it is broken.

 

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

Very Important Data today and tomorrow – Economic Data Calendar 

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

Resistances : 0.89850 , 0.89950 & 0.90450

Supports : 0.89500 , 0.89200 & 0.88750

Now this pair’s faith directly depends on EURUSD – If EUR losses footing at 1.06500 a big slide begins and USDCHF will have to follow the suit (in the opposite direction of course ), like it or not.

However, if EUR starts turning Up, this will be just a correctional move , before it continues the journey to 0.85500

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports at : 1.06850 , 1.06750 & 1.06550

Resistances at : 1.07000, 1.07150 & 1.07400

A new wave Up is forming ,and time working for EUR now.

[michael Calif]

nearby Euro futures remain Long for the near term   :gtwo3

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Weekly

As we are approaching the Major support at 1.06500 , let’s look at it on the bigger time frame.

We have two more days to go through that support, or things might change radically.

It is that timing part of the trading…

Also, have to mention one even more important thing – it has to close below 1.06500 to be sure we are on the road down.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nasdaq – NDX

Supports 19.650.00, 19.380.00 , 18.815.00

Resistance 19.950.00

Holding nicely –  next target is at 20.500.00

[Author]

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