[SF Monedge]

Active this morning.  If Aussie sees 6810 hold from the 6780 bid we should see 6830 at least.

[SF Monedge]

Same as Euro with Aussie 6780-90 bid

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 1 HOUR -Profit-taking?

Move off another record high (20772) would need to trade below 20482 and then 20345-89 to suggest a risk of a further retracement.

[SF Monedge]

0860-70 zone is decent R/R for hitting the bid for resumed upside with the 2yr settling as thought earlier.  If the bias switches to risk off in Euro you can forgive yourself if longs don’t work out due to the decent R/r which is perfectly logical.  Already in from a bit lower…

[Robinson Izuchukwu]

CPI News today is wonderful, thanks Bobby for always sharing your setup on Facebook and thanks for your guidance in the Trading Club.

[GVI Forex 2]

A little deja vu as this is the volatility we used to see in the forex market on a daily basis… although USDJPY is trading more like a video game

If you are looking for a range, 158.96-157.90 occurred in a one minute candle. 159.20 is an AT resistance.

[SF Monedge]

Yen pairs did the exact opposite of everything else on the data and I’ve been aggressively selling EurJpy with quick trades on pull ups.  Now we see if those pairs join the risk on tone.  US 2yr note is firmly bid from 102’10 so that is a good spot to consider some positions if it gets there.  The market will ordinarily test the starting point roughly, hence the pullback occurring.

[SF Monedge]

Not tooting my horn just pointing out that this transpired and nothing post-CPI has changed this dynamic –

(posted yesterday early US session)

Internals showing AudJpy wants to go over the figure, time will tell.  Interestingly the sell cycle in Sterling remains intact but internals are a scorching bid, so either Sterling breaks uphill strongly today or tomorrow and establishes a new buy cycle with higher full figure prints targeting 2900 + or continues to decline toward 2780.  Perhaps consider the offer around 2900/10.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY trendline broken…watch the close vs it

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART – Trendline

USDJPY finally correlating with US yielkds if you call a freefall correlation

Key level is the major trendline at 157.84

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY in freefall.. smells like BoJ but could well be someone bailing out of a short JPY positioin as US yields fall sharply

[GVI Forex 2]

Softer CPI – reaction

Lower jobless claims – ignored

See our Economic Calendar

[Belgrade Bobby]

I don’t trade Data, I don’t pay much attention to them, but seems as Data follows what I write 😀

[GVI Forex 2]

US CPI (and weekly jobless claims)

Let’s keep it simple

Watch the core y/y rate

Watch 10 year 4.30% as sort of a yield pivot

Watch EURUSD 1.0850 as it will ulimately set the tone

It would take a lot to change expectations of 2 rate cuts this year, first on in Sept

[Mtl JP]

Dolan : ” futures stay wedded to two quarter-point Fed rate cuts this year, while 10-year Treasuries easily absorbed the latest sale of new paper”

i.e dlr on backfoot.

for now

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD WEEKLY – AMENDED

1.2860 is a breakout level on a daily chart but on a weekly chart the level is 1.2893. This is the level that blocks a run at 1.30 and above.

Needs to hold 1.2860 to keep a strong bid.

Supports: 1.2835-45-50, 1.2827 ahead of 1.28

Roll the dice next on US CPI.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

If Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell had any inkling of the June U.S. inflation readout when speaking to Congress this week, then today’s critical report doesn’t look like it will prove a game changer.

But given the buoyancy of U.S. (.SPX), opens new tab and world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab at record highs and pretty serene Treasury and interest rate markets, that doesn’t seem much of a bother for global markets right now.

Morning Bid: CPI caution seems no barrier, sterling surges

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD WEEKLY – Breakout?

Clear weekly trend

GBPUSD retracement proved to be a one day wonder.

1.2860 broken – breakout if it holds

Little on charts above 1.2860 until 1.3141 with 1.30 the key psychological target.

Supports: 1.2835-45-50, 1.2827 ahead of 1.28

 

Roll the dice next on US CPI.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Update :

Support at 1.08200 held overnight and we saw a new daily high.

If it would close this bar just right now as it is , It would be a perfect Pattern for another Leg Up.

Now we have to wait and see…

Be aware of sudden pull backs – Big Data today Economic Data Calendar

But this is very bullish now….

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX 4 HOUR CHART – KEY SUPPORT

1.0080 is key support – below it would imply EURUSD )57.6% of the index) establishes above 1.0850 and opens a void in USDX to the lower 104s and 103.93

Back above 104.95-00 would ease the risk

[michael Calif]

revision  –  no decline in Euro futures, EURUSD remains Long    :gtwo3

[Robinson Izuchukwu]

Hello Bobby, I want to appreciate you for your kind teach and mostly on FB page, it’s topnotch, I’ve learnt a lot from here and your FB page so far, I want to encourage you to keep up the good job, thank you

[GVI Forex 2]

Those signed up for the Trading Club. There is a follow up in the Trading Academy that takes using Bobby’s unique approach to trendlines to the next level with more to come.

[GVI Forex 2]

Global-View Trading Club

 

Global-View Trading Club

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Supports at : 1.08200 & 1.08000

Resistances at : 1.08450/500 , 1.08700 & 1.08900

The angle is right, Pattern very Bullish – two options :

It hits straight to Resistance at 1.08900 –  in that case probability is it will Fail to break

It takes a breather and few days of consolidation – in that case we go through the resistance and about another 200 pips up from these levels, just to meet the Major Resistance line at 1.11

[michael Calif]

decline of unknown magnitutde due any time in Euro futures    :gtwo3

[Mtl JP]

twistididee twistididaah
–
in WSJ:
What’s Behind Powell’s Latest Shift on Rates
Achieving lower inflation without a significant slowdown is ‘the No. 1 thing’ keeping the Fed chair up at night. – By Nick Timiraos, July 10, 2024 3:10

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPJPY DAILY CHART – ALL GREEN CANDLES

Look at this Chart as it speaks for itself.

As I have noted, when two currencies move in oppoitte directions like today (GBP up, JPY down), there is real money driving the moves.

Closest support is just below 205.

This also makes it difficult for the BoJ to intervene as it is more than just a USDJPY move.

[SF Monedge]

Correction, 2yr note just went bid overall.  Something to pay attention to.  102’08 futures should hold looking outward.

[SF Monedge]

Reaction to 10yr auction did not change the downward trajectory of notes/bond.

[Author]

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