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NZDUSD moved higher today after holding above the EMA-50, confirming it as firm support. The pair remains positioned within a broader short-term bullish structure, with price trading just above the rising EMA-100 and EMA-200, reinforcing the underlying upward bias. On the upside, initial resistance is located near 0.6065–0.6080, ahead of stronger resistance around 0.6100. On the downside, a sustained move below 0.6030 could expose further downside below 0.6000
On a more fundamental side, attention has now turned to labor market data. The Q4 unemployment rate expected to hold at 5.3%, its highest level since 2016, while employment is forecast to grow by 0.3%.
NZDUSD (1HR)
NZD/USD experienced a strong bullish rally from mid-January through the end of the month. This move established a clear upward channel on the 1-hour timeframe.
As February begins, price action has slowed, with the pair currently trading around the 0.6000 psychological level. This area is acting as an important decision zone for the market. A confirmed break below channel support with strong bearish price action would be needed to fully consolidate this change in trend. Caution is advised, as the upcoming news may introduce high volatility and significantly alter the current technical outlook.
NZDUSD (1HR)
Ahead of the upcoming trading week, NZD/USD pulled back in its last trading and had broken the 0.6070 resistance level. The price declined in its last trading session by around 1% pressured by profit-taking after entering overbought conditions on the relative strength indicators which prompted a corrective pull-back. The decline came after the pair successfully broke above its previous resistance and now 0.6000 psychological level now acting as an important support zone.
Near-term direction remains uncertain. Technical indicators are now showing mixed signals with momentum indicators easing while trend indicators continue to reflect residual bullish bias. We’ll be seeing how the pair develops over the coming week.
Of all markets, forex algos seem to live to run stops
With the USD trading generally firmer, let’s take a look at its highs for the week as breaks would be needed to run potential stops. Otherwise, expect more chop awaiting Friday’s key events.
- EURUSD 1.1659
- USDJPY 157.30
- GBPUSD 1.3414
- USDCAD 1.3888 (new high set yesterday and extended today)
- AUDUSD 6670
- NZDUSD .5741 (retested today, no stops)
Forex Market Snapshot
- It has been a quiet start to the forex week as traders look ahead to key events thus week, including US CPI and NFP on Tuesday.
- USDJPY has been an exception, which is trading lower, testing sub-155
- EURUSD is unchanged on the day with a 15 pip range that is too tight to last. 1.1750 (also Friday’s high) remains pivotal.
- NZDUSD is the underperformer (note NZDJOY)
- XAUUSD is up and still eyeing its record high at 4390
- BTCUSD has bounced off 88K after a weekend selloff, helped by a bounce overnight in US stocks
Forex Market Snapshot
- The dollar is trading firmer but off its highs and turning mixed
- EURUSD bounced from another intra-day double bottom
- USDJPY extending its high and faces key resistance at 151.30\
- Weakest remains the NZDUSD ahead of Wednesday’s RBNZ rate decision.
- Mood turning to rIsk off… stocks down, bonds up (yields down), reversing earlier price moves.
Forex Market Snapshot
- The dollar is trading firmer as political factors dominate in the absence of key US data to focus on.
- Weakest is the NZDUSD ahead of Wednesday’s RBNZ rate decision.
- USDJPY extended its high towards (but still below) 150.91
- EURUSD so far pausing above 1.1652 (Monday low) and a key 1.1645 level
What’s Hot and What’s Not?
What’s Hot
USD firmer: GBP (hot) vs EUR (i.e. EURGBP weaker)
Bitcoin… continues into unchartered territory but faces a tough obstacle at 112000
What’s Not?
EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD
GOLD down after failing to test 3348
What’s lukewarm
US stocks going sideways after bounce off the low
US bonds… yields remain elevated but off its highs
Weekly Perspective on NZDUSD
Kiwi couldn’t reach even close to Downtrend Resistance line dating back from 2021. waiting at 0.62050
This is not going to be a jolly close of the week for it, and if below 0.58850 and possibly 0.58450, would turn Bearish.
Only close above 0.59400 would give it another weekly chance.
