[wfakhoury Amman]

Dear SF
USDJPY is in a buying mood,158.50 is confirmed and will be reached.
There is no confirmed price downside yet. But the close below 158.50 will go to 157.90 and the close below 157.90 will go to 157.35 .the close below 15725 will go to 156.75
100% guaranteed.
———————————–
158.50 Reached.
157.90 157.35 156.75 all reached.
100% guaranteed

[SF Monedge]

I see plenty of potential for some sudden selling in UsdJpy targeting the 156.00 to 156.20 area which would draw sells in thinking its intervention.  The market is long and will simply repurchase if it isn’t and it isn’t taken down further.

[SF Monedge]

It looks to me like Dxy is intact as long as the 105.70-80 area holds any sell bouts.  Consequently I have zero indication UsdJpy is a sell at this point.  If you must, I think a good practice would be following it with sell stop entries instead of trying to be a superstar calling tops and bottoms.  I think Aussie is a consistent buy overall on down drafts especially against crosses.

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

France will lead off Tuesday’s first estimates for first-quarter GDP followed by Germany and Italy with flat to modestly positive results the general consensus. Eurozone results will follow close behind (11:00 local time) with 0.2 percent quarterly growth the consensus. The first estimate for harmonised Eurozone inflation will be posted at the same time as Eurozone GDP with only the most marginal improvement expected.

But Tuesday’s session will actually open in China with the official CFLP PMIs, which are expected to slow, while rounding out the day will be monthly GDP from Canada, which is also expected to slow, and the quarterly employment cost index from the US which is expected to hold steady.

Wednesday’s session will center on an expected no-action Federal Reserve meeting. Monthly US employment data are another of the week’s mainliners opening with ADP on Wednesday followed on Friday by nonfarm payrolls which are expected to rise a strong 230,000.

Econoday

[GVI Forex 2]

April 29 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Asian stocks should open on Monday buoyed by Friday’s tech-led surge on Wall Street, while investors will be scrambling to make sense of the latest twist in the Japanese yen’s extraordinary helter-skelter slide against the dollar and other currencies.

Morning Bid: Helter-skelter yen, US tech tonic

[GVI Forex 2]

If there is intervention it woulf be more of a political decision.

[Mtl JP]

fun n gaming with inflation fighter jerome
on wednesday
–
and then powell flipped to a hawkish tone muttering something about less cuts and in not exactly super clear terms has mumbled something about no cuts and in agonizingly confused linguistics suggest that a potential hike can not be off the table.

srce.: attempted futurologist Mtl JP

[Belgrade Bobby]

Economic Data Calendar 

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

In my 3 decades of experience with Yen ( my first major lost was shorting it in similar situation ) , what I see is continuous run to 162.

As long as 157 holds its ground.

And to be even more exact, I expect tomorrow another leg Up , just like on Friday – straight for the 162.

Second possibility is to see a pull back to 157 area and then within few days to hit that target.

Call me a degenerate trader ( no offence taken) but I just can’t see it any other way…yes, there is always a first time for everything, but not on Yen .

If BoJ tries to stop it right now, they are degenerate bankers….as I said : Blow of Rally, and then they step in , together with major players taking their profits.

[michael Calif]

as pure guesswork, .6330 in Yen nearby futures is an attractive .786 buy point from the Jan ’23 high.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4-HOUR CHART – ONLY ONE LEVEL MATTERS

Looking at this 4-hour chart, the only level that matters is 154.95

I am sure that the BpJ is looking at the same level as the one that would need to trade below to negate the latest leg up.

On the upside, it is pure guesswork with 160 the next “big figure” target.

[wfakhoury Amman]

April 26, 2024 at 4:39 pm#5303REPLY
SF Monedge
PARTICIPANT
Ahman – May I please have a 100% guarantee from you on my UsdJpy short from 157.70? Thank you in advance.

__________________________________
Dear SF
USDJPY is in a buying mood,158.50 is confirmed and will be reached.
There is no confirmed price downside yet. But the close below 158.50 will go to 157.90 and the close below 157.90 will go to 157.35 .the close below 15725 will go to 156.75
100% guaranteed.

[michael Calif]

nearby Copper futures have now reached a top to the price runup from Feb 9 lows, per Option Profile analysis … similar in manner to the Gold and Silver tops earlier this month

[Mtl JP]

WSJ
– “NICK TIMIRAOS | THE OUTLOOK
Even If the Fed Cuts, the Days of Ultralow Rates Are Over”

— “CREDIT MARKETS
Soaring Treasury Yields Challenge Stock-Market Gains”

[GVI Forex 2]

When I was a bank trader, I became friendly with a trader who managed a forex dealing room. He related his philosophy, which I call a professional trader’s game plan that can be used by retail traders today.

A Professional Trader’s Strategy for the Retail Forex Trader</em>

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY

I just got an email from the savvy trader I mentioned earlier with the following

I would suggest that the current climb will get sticky from 157 onwards

Re intervention he said

They likely will shoot across the bows 157 but the battleship will come out at 160 162 I don’t believe they have decided an exact level just yet but yes intervention likely initially by MoF then the the pension fund and finally boj hence why I say sticky from 157 up

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead 29th April to 3rd May: Highlights include FOMC, NFP, ISM, and PMI data</strong>

[Belgrade Bobby]

NVIDIA Daily – Technical outlook

Double Top in place

Fibo 0.382 Held nicely on correction

For another attempt for a new high needs to overcome 930.

Major Support at 665

[GVI Forex 2]

I have a really good memory and recalled this being sent to me in Oct 2022 by one of our most experienced and savvy traders. It took some time but his key level is now on the radar.

UsdJpy
Just saying

with the level for them (BoJ/MoF) to truly defend 160-162

[michael Calif]

Gold futures remain firmly seller controlled, per Option Profile, any price rallies a re a great short

[michael Calif]

…   for any Oil traders out there, nearby Crude Oil futures will very soon be a strong sell, per Option Profile

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART — 2300-2400?

It has been around 2 weeks since the XAUUSD set its record high (2430).

The subsequent retracement has seen one test below 2300.

So, looking with an objective eye says moves so far outside of 2300-2400 have lacked follow-through.

With that said, there is a risk of a further retracement but ONLY if 2291 is taken out.

Otherwise, expect chop trade while within 2300-2400.

[Mtl JP]

jay … re “let the JPY floodgates open”
are you going in loaded long DLR or SHORT Yen ?

odds are infinitesimal that their window to intervene effectively is POOF now

and 10-yr 4.665% does not look like its pricing in a eager run uP

[GVI Forex 2]

Japan is closed on Monday for a holiday … it would have been a good time to intevene if it didn;t let the JOY floodgates open.

[Mtl JP]

some degenerte traders gunning to tag 158

157.87 as I type
not my coffee

[michael Calif]

I think I agree; buying nearby Yen futures at .6390 per Option Profile

[Belgrade Bobby]

Just as a view – not tradable at all, but looks to me it’s gonna hit 162 and fall down on it’s own….

[Belgrade Bobby]

I wouldn’t bet on BoJ intervention of any kind….they are just slowing it down

[SF Monedge]

I can see the argument for UsdJpy making it to 160 now that the MoF and BoJ have shown they are apprehensive to take action following their recent rate move.  Shorting this pair looking for intervention may be best served by trailing sell stop entries as it climbs.  Expecting limited covert interventions to stem the ferocity of the tide.  It appears the BoJ of this crew are more Ninja than Samurai.

[Mtl JP]

new york times
–
Antony Blinken and Xi Jinping Make Small Progress Amid a Larger Gap
– Meeting in Beijing, the U.S. secretary of state and the Chinese leader struck conciliatory notes. But there was no hiding their governments’ core differences.

I am assuming most anyone reading the abouve sees it as : Failure

****

A New Pacific Arsenal to Counter China
– With missiles, submarines and alliances, President Biden’s administration has built a presence in the region to rein in Beijing’s expansionist goals.

I am assuming the abouve is music notes to some and visually diabolocal prospect for some others

[Author]

Posts