[Belgrade Knez]

Bobby 12:06

according to that 4h chart, if by the book price should retrace back to 1.0847 …. BUT

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Resistance 1.06350 – Above that it is not clear how far it can reach. It is open all the way till 1.07150

Support 1.06200 & 1.06000

Bellow that it targets 1.05400

Have a nice day 😀

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

With Middle East anxiety still brewing in the background, the red hot U.S. retail readout for March has underlined the sheer strength of the economic expansion there and is super-charging the dollar around the world.

Morning bid: Red hot retail readout drives US economy and dollar

[GVI Forex 2]

OUR BLOG IS A WEALTH OF TRADIG INFORMATION, IF YOU ARE TRADING THESE DAYS YOU MUST KEEP AN EYE ON INTEREST RATES (I.E US BOND YIELDS) AS EXPLAINED IN THIS ARTICLE

Why Interest Rates Matter

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART =Another 34-year high

As noted here yesterday, 154.-155 is a sticky zone with the top end as a pivotal level and potential BoJ line in the sand.

So far the market is showing no fear of the BoJ and is again taking the path of least resistance by selling JPY on its crosses (e.g. EURJPY, GBPJPY) where the BpK is less likely to intervene,

For intra-day traders, look for the “50” level (154.50) to be pivotal in the days ahead in determining whther the market goes after 155.

[Mtl JP]

the 10-yr 4.63 % is not substantially down from its 52-week high of 4.99% hit in October 2023

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 4.63%

[Mtl JP]

*** hikes rather than cuts ***
some references:
–
The Fed might not be done raising interest rates just yet – CNN Apr 11

Bowman recently said that she would favor a rate hike “should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”

Kashkari floated the possibility of not cutting rates at all this year. He also said rate hikes are “certainly not off the table.”

Williams – powell’s “top advisor” – said that here are “definitely circumstances” that would merit raising interest rates such as inflation moving materially higher, but the current trajectory doesn’t fit that, he said.

Circumstances: “the recent increases in inflation had been relatively broad based and therefore should not be discounted as merely statistical aberrations,” according to meeting minutes released Wednesday

“You have to take seriously the possibility that the next rate move will be upwards rather than downwards,” Summers

[Mtl JP]

*** hikes rather than cuts ***

GVI Forex 10:31pm // that is at least the 2nd time I read someone talk about a HIKE instead of cuts , over the last month or so. sofar players not pricing even a 5% chance of that theme

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0615
–
puppy is now teasing a probe sub my earlier id’d 1.0625 Sup

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD WEEKLY CHART

I am not saying it will get to it but EURUSD breakdown through 1.0683 exposeslast tear’s low at 1.9336 as a major support.

Not seen on this chart, the downside stays at risk as long as it trades below 1.0665

[GVI Forex 2]

Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Asian markets open on Tuesday against an extremely challenging backdrop of slumping global equity and bond prices, a rising dollar, and the yen’s slide to lows that many analysts reckon will prompt direct intervention from Japanese authorities.

Morning Bid: China GDP eyed as investor sentiment crumbles

[GVI Forex 2]

Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Asian markets open on Tuesday against an extremely challenging backdrop of slumping global equity and bond prices, a rising dollar, and the yen’s slide to lows that many analysts reckon will prompt direct intervention from Japanese authorities.

Morning Bid: China GDP eyed as investor sentiment crumbles

[GVI Forex 2]

Out earlier in Bloomberg

The combination of strong US growth and sticky inflation is raising the odds the Federal Reserve hikes rather than cuts interest rates, bringing borrowing costs to as high as 6.5% next year, according to UBS Group AG strategists… 5hours ago

[GVI Forex 2]

If Powell blinks tomorrow it would be a nail in the coffin.

1:15 p.m.

Discussion — Chair Jerome H. Powell
Watch Live
Moderated Discussion with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada
At the Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy, Washington, D.C.

[GVI Forex 2]

If Powell blinks tomorrow it would beca nailing the coffin.

1:15 p.m.

Discussion — Chair Jerome H. Powell
Watch Live
Moderated Discussion with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada
At the Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy, Washington, D.C.

[Mtl JP]

times of isreal: “Report: War cabinet decides to hit Iran back hard, hopes it won’t spark regional war”
hopes
–
in the meantime:
crude’s uP (dlr down) as is dlrchf dlr dowwn vs the chf

market looks mixed up to me

[SF Monedge]

All of my parameters are positive USD.  One of my indications would have been compromised a bit earlier.  Buy dips.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 Daily Chart

As I have mentioned, looking at CFD charts it is hard to give specific levels as feeds can differ between brokers, even with the same symbol. This is why currencies are great to chart as everyone basically uses the same set of prices.

So compare this chart to what you have on your platform. 3 blue lines down are bearish but notice how the trendline and support coincide. This is the key level; on the downside (and the red AT line below it).

[Mtl JP]

looking ahead
–
FEDs Calendar 4/16
1:15 p.m. – Discussion — Chair Jerome H. Powell

[GVI Forex 2]

NOTICE THE CHOP AROIND XAUUASD 2350, BTC 65000, NOTICE HOW EURUSD TONE TURNED SOUR WHEN IT FAILED TO STAY ABVOV3 1.0650. SO IT PAYS TO SHOW MY BLOG ARTICLE AGAIN TO EMPHASIZE THE POWER OF 50

My Favorite Trading Secret: The Power of the “50” Level

[SF Monedge]

Knez honestly I’m not sure.  It started long ago.  I just hope no children are hurt.  Not likely.

[Belgrade Knez]

April 15, 2024 at 4:03 pm
SF Monedge
God bless Israel.  Iran picked the fight not us.

———————————————————

You kidding. Right?

 

[SF Monedge]

God bless Israel.  Iran picked the fight not us.

[GVI Forex 2]

Israel Defence Nibiater Gallant told US Defence Secretary Austin on Sunday that Israel Has no choice but to retaliate against Iran, according to Axios.

Source: Newsquawk.com

[Mtl JP]

williams on tv earlier this morn:
–
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-04-15/fed-s-williams-talks-inflation-data-and-rate-cuts-video

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10-Year Bond 1 Hour CFD Chart (price is inverse with yield)

All you need to know why USD is up

10-year yields 4.663$ +16.3 bps

[SF Monedge]

Jay there were UK and US warships involved and we knocked down 99% of the drones and missiles.  I spoke with a  Colonel.  Agreed however, yields.

[GVI Forex 2]

WSJ reports Israel could retaliate as soon as Monday. but today is more about rising US bond yields.

[SF Monedge]

A fundamental geo-political issue is present due to Iran attacking Israel.  That is a US ally that was attacked.  Hedging and preparation for sudden price movement is advisable with one’s portfolio.

[Author]

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