[GVI Forex 2]

The following is a fresh USDJPY update from a long time, highly respected Global-View member who I nicknamed the Savvy Trader after he called the top at USDJPY at 160-162 well in advance. Since then, he has been kind enough to share his latest view on USDJPY in a series of emails, which we have posted in our blog.

A Fresh USDJPY Update from the Savvy Trader

[GVI Forex 2]

SF, it is stocks setting the risk off mood.. last 141.32

Note EURGBP up… GBPUSD down… EURUSD lagging but weak…still holding above 1.10

[SF Monedge]

Jay – and the pair is moving lock step with the yield this morning.

[GVI Forex 2]

SF, how about looking at the other side of USDJPY… fwiw US 10 year is back to unchanged at 3.64%… USDJPY 141.63

[SF Monedge]

You had to know there would be large money around 6 month lows UsdJpy looking to buy.

[GVI Forex 2]

Let’s keep it simple

Stocks down (US500 repelled after testing 5500)… risk off.. yields off highs…commodity currencies dip… JPY is a risk off beneficiary… USD firm as well

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – WATCH YIELDS

SO FAR PAUSING JUST BELOW 142.57 RESISTANCE.

141.95-00 NEEDS TO HOLD TO CONTAIN THE DOWNSIDE

CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON US bond yields.

[GVI Forex 2]

It is 23 years since the terror attacks on 9/11/2001 that changed NYC and the course of history. For those who lived through it, as I did, we will never forget. For a younger generation, it is hard to describe the feeling and emotion of that dreadful day as I sat frozen in front of my trading platform.

[GVI Forex 2]

As I said… watch yields… FX correlating as bond yields come off post-CPI highs.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks, after the knee jerk drop, are back up and within a hair of (US500) 5500… 5till pivotal and an obstacle

[GVI Forex 2]

No big surprise in CPI but markets reduce pricing for a 50BP rate cut… yields up, usd up… could easily have been a non-event but all that matters is the reaction.

[GVI Forex 2]

10-year 3.614% pre-data

Stocks: Watch S&P (USD500, SPX500) 5500 as a pivotal level, both post debate and post-CPI

Forex: Watch EURUSD 1.1050 as the anti-dollar pivotal level

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY (141.70 last) , perhaps the hidden hand is now protedtng 140. This is what I would do if I was in the BoJ’s shoes.

Otherwise, dollar is a touch softer as market sets up for the US CPI.

[GVI Forex 2]

LONDON, Sept 11 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Dhara Ranasinghe.

As a combative U.S. presidential debate grabs attention, upcoming U.S. inflation numbers have fallen into the background — but perhaps only temporarily.

Morning Bid: A swift change to inflation-watch

[GVI Forex 2]

Next focus is on the US CPI report in 2-1/2 hours. Click below for a detailed preview.

Newsquawk.com Week Ahead: 9th-13th September
Highlights include China CPI, US CPI/PPI, ECB rate decision; UK GDP & employment/wages

[Mtl JP]

according to jeff cox

Two key inflation reports this week will help decide the size of the Fed’s interest rate cut

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will first release the consumer price index Wednesday and then
the producer price index Thursday, both measuring August prices.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCAD Daily

Loonie went on several occasions on stop hunting below The Major Support trend line, but never – ever closed even ones below.

Important resistance and deal breaker is at 1.36300 – if above sky is the limit 😀

Supports : 1.35650 , 1.35150 & 1.34850

Resistances : 1.36300 , 1.36850 & 1.37850

[Mtl JP]

CRUDE (wti) 66.9x

personally … I like it here
as a BoD

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports : 1.10300 , 1.10200 & 1.09900

Resistances : 1.10500 , 1.10650 & 1.11200

Now 1.10300 presents the support that needs to hold for the pair to test higher.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Data Today

Economic Data Calendar

[Mtl JP]

cnbc’ trumpet
“European Central Bank set to cut interest rates just days before the Fed’s big decision”

so what are you gonna do with it,
how are you going to trade it grasshopper ?

[Mtl JP]

US 10-yr Yield | 3:36 AM EDT
3.616%
–
what is that watson ?

US economy going the way of a morning turd
on economy’s impottant indicators: GDP, job turfings and type of new job creation and … price inflation
the rate may be coming down somewhat BUT inflation is cumulative so the APPARENT cost of goods and services keeps going up.

[SF Monedge]

UsdJpy 141.70 or so could be a low for a while.  Not my favorite idea to go long so I will only be short on pull ups.

[SF Monedge]

Yen futures have barely budged during the UsdJpy debate volatility after over an hour.

[GVI Forex 2]

It is hard to write about tonight’s U.S. presidential TV debate without expressing a political view but I will give it a try.

Trump vs. Harris Debate: Will Markets React?

 

[SF Monedge]

I am either catching UsdJpy perfectly or the market is not searching to rebalance and goes back to the lows.  One of the two.

[SF Monedge]

If It goes the way it is behaving UsdJpy should see 145.25 again in coming days and the probabilities we have already seen the bottom the other day.  I was long yesterday in NY and sold in late Asia and am now getting long again.

The US debate is the wild card.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 15 MINUTE CHART – HOW TO USE CROSSES TO TRADE SPOT FOREX
Note how EURUSD lost the bid (last at 1.1020) after EURGBP met resistance (at the blue AT line)

[GVI Forex 2]

FWIW A firmer EURGBP is so far keeping EURUSD from breaking 1.1026.

GBPUSD weighed down by a firmer EURGBP and weaker GBPJPY but still above its 1.3057 intra-day low.

[GVI Forex 2]

If looking for the current driver, it is buy orders for JPY on its crosses despite a modest risk on for stocks.

[Author]

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