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US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR
What caught my eye was the break of the record 7150 high yielded only 2 pips (new high 7152), indicating it ran into sellers rather than stops. So far, it has only caused a pause but bears watching given the importance of the “50” level.
To keep the focus on the high, 7089-7119 needs to hold.
US500 (SP500) 1 HOUR
When in unchartered waters, resistance is a guess so use the new high (7043) and the “50” level (7050) as initial levels. If broken, then 7080-00
If they hold, then upside slows but still keeps a bid while above 7000, stronger if above the former 7014 record high.
Below 7000 would cool the risk.
US500 (SP500) DAILY
If it wasn’t that 7014 is the record high and thus a formidable level, it would be a clear path as charts show no obstacles above 6969.
In any case, 7000 is likely most important in dictating whether US500 is ready for a fresh run into uncharted territory as price action suggests market is pricing in the end game to the Middle Rast crisis.
US500 (SP500) 4 hour
I call 6900-7000 a sticky zone as the record high looms just above the top end.
Only one resistance ahead of it at 6969, which was nicked (high 6972).
Meanwhile, it remains to be seen how far hope will take it… hope not only for the resumption of peace talks but hope that it will lead to an agreement.
US500 (SP500) DAILY
What a difference a few hours makes as the reversal from the opening down gap has more than erased it.
It is now 10 out of 11 green (up) candles with the exception a minor one.
With possible US-Iran talks resuming later in the week, there should be support on dips as long as US500 stays above 6800.
On the upside, 6893 and 6969 are obstacles to the record 7014 high.
US500 (SP500 4 HOUR
Bounce from the opening gap, which held above the trendline, came close to filling the gap on this chart (6803 high vs 6810 Friday close) . This sugge3sts 6800-10 would need to become support to make it more than just a bounce.
‘Keep watching the reaction to news more than the news itself as a clue to trading.
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR
Reaction to news suggests bulls are looking for reasons to extend the rebounds but an uncertain outcome to weekend peace talks and associated risk of a failure argue for a cautious end to the week,
Otherwise, for the strong rebound off 6310 to gain momentum, 6837 needs] to be broken and 6800 would need to become support.
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR
Glass half empty, glass half filled again
Glass half empty: Failure to establish above 6800 and cloud of the Middle East hovering overhead
Glass half full: The strong rebound off 6310 and HOPE. despite signs of cracks, that the ceasefire will hold after weekend talks.
In any case, 6800 remains pivotal on top and the trendline the closest key level on the downside
US500 (SP500) 4 hour
The best we can say right now is that US500 will not be trading around this level following Prez T’s deadline tonight.
Market will take its cue from the reaction more than the news and how US500 trades vs, 6500 and 6600.
In the meantime, given the risks, it is hard to see follow through going far on the upside barring news with the deadline coming out after the close.
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR
With US stock markets closed on Friday expect a gap opening on Monday that would need to move outside of 6400-6600 to put key levels at risk (6378, 6310/6600-10.6636)
Note Friday sees US NFP before those4 trading look to head for the exits (US banks are open,, bond market closes at noon).
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR
I gave the clue yesterday when the up (grteen) candle pattern was broken (red candle) followed by an up the escalator, down the elevator reaction.
With US stock markets closed tomorrow for a 3 day weekend, look for position adjustments to dominate the rest of the day with a 6500 acting as a pivotal bias setting level and a limited upside unless 6589+ trades given the headline risk during the holiday break.
Key level: 6378 support
6500 pivotal
6460 intra-day low (minor)
6500-20 resistance (minor)
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR
With one day to go for most in this holiday shortened week and liquidity thinning, all bets are off ahead of the President’s address to the nation at 9PM EDT tonight and likely volatility afterward.
Meanwhile the first red (down) candle after a straight run up from 6378 suggests caution where 6637 needs to be taken out to add to the up m omen tum, while dependent on 6500-20 holding to keep a bid
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR
Outside day key reversal has seen the break of 6437 make a textbook run at key 6522 resistance (high 6539).
Similar to NAS100, with month/quarter end over, test will be whether stocks can retain a bid ahead of the long Easter break given the headline risk.
To give this rebound legs, 6500-22 would need to become support.
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR
Whether it is month end or news algos reacting to a headline there is some life in stocks so far today.
To build on the bounce off the new 6310 low, 6437+ would be needed for an outside day and 6443+ to shift the focus back to 6500.
Otherwise, range is intact and dependent on 6378 holding to keep a bid and focus away from the new low.
Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks hit and oil surges into the weekend as geopolitical tensions remain high
SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries mixed, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold up
COMING UP: Data: Spanish Retail Sales (Feb), EU Consumer Inflation Expectations (Mar), German Inflation Prelim. (Mar), US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar). Speakers: Fed’s Williams.
Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days
US500 (SP500) WEEKLY CHART
