[Mtl JP]

POLITICALLY THEMED TRADE MUSING
–
Having successfully made all significant wokes’, liberals’ and defenders of democracy heads’ explode, the only minor qtn now is how they will send joe packing. Regardless of the method , I don’t expect it being as affecting market re-pricing reaction as the reactive re-pricing of joe’s replacement.

I suspect the “saving democracy as we know it” theme will be somewhat toned down by the “replacement of joe” and markets will likely try to figure out the economic, fiscal and legislative effect of the pivoted policy. One thing I do not see being compromised is the money flow into the veins of the military complex – which remains BoD.

[GVI Forex 2]

FINANCIAL TRADING AND SPORTS BETTING IN ONE PLATFORM

[Mtl JP]

DLRchf .90 or so

c’mon puppy perk up some more
9020ish first , 9035 after and 9050+ after that

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP BUY ORDER AHEAD OF THE FIING

[SF Monedge]

Point of control in my board is Dxy is 106.02.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 160.56

Nice bounce from AT suport at 160.27

[Belgrade Bobby]

S&P – SPX Hits a New All Time High
S&P 500 to bring home 15% pop.

Nvidia behind 30% of S&P 500 gains.

Three companies sit on $3 trillion each.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART – Does the bounce have legs?

The bounce from sub-2300 has nicked 2337, above which would confirm end of the down episode.

However, this would just put it back into 2300-2400 where 2350 will set its tone.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nike – NKE – Just Do It

Nike took a dive

Nike’s Warning Shakes European Footwear Stocks

Nike on Thursday said it expects revenue to be down in the mid-single digits for the year ending May 2025, blaming uneven consumer trends in the European, Middle East and Africa region, and planned declines of classic footwear franchises given fourth-quarter trends. Analysts polled by FactSet expected revenue growth of 1.4%, to $52.11 billion.

[SF Monedge]

Second week into July is when more determinant allocations will show up across the board.  I expect some noticeable shifts in overall bias in some key houses but not dramatically so.

[SF Monedge]

Closed a couple of dollar shorts from prior when Aussie paused at 6680 in UsdJpy 160.30’s, for example, and some considerable guns suddenly went off.  Surely there is widespread portfolio adjustment transpiring this morning.  Bottom line is no market shock in the data but cause for adjustments in a lot of offices.

[GVI Forex 2]

U of M consumer sentiment revisions

Headline higher

Inflation expectations lower

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 160.44

Testing my carry trade theory if stocks steady and JPY demand eases

Wahtever the case,160.27 support held

[GVI Forex 2]

Big uposide miss (stronger) in Chicago PMI … yawn reaction… quarter ebd flows the focus

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – OUTSIDE DAY

There appears to be some unwinding of short JPY positions into quarter end. I am not privy to the follows but the dip in stocks early on suggests maybe some profit taking on short jpy-long stocks carry trades.

Whatever the case, it would need to close below 160.39 for an outside day key reversal day although I have heard mixed analysis whether this works well in fx.

So far, 160.27 support has been tested.  160.00 is probably more important than any technical level.

Back above 160.50-63 would be needed to cool the risk.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Now this 4h Bar is important for near term moves.

If it closes above 1.07000 it will be a Bullish pattern with a possible next leg UP.

However, close bellow 1.06950 will be Bearish , with the chance to attack 1.06600

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up is the Chicago PMI and UofM consumer sentiment where a focus will be on inflation expectations.

Then the focus shifts to the 4PM London month/quarter end fixing. There is often a flurry of activity into the fix.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 1 HOUR CHART – OUTPERFORMER

 

AUDUSD has been the outperformer so far today but it is still a swing within the range unless it taskes out .6684-89 and then .6704.

As the chart shows, it should find support while aboe .6652 as long as this level holds.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Apple – AAPL
Oppenheimer Adjusts Price Target on Apple to $250 From $200
Apple  AAPL has an average rating of outperform and price targets ranging from $125 to $275, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ.

[SF Monedge]

Nikkei futures are still bid which is another indication traders/banks will keep buying stocks post-PCE, just not as aggressively as this quarter and with some partial liquidations of holdings.  Casual portfolio adjustments to hedge along the way is likely to be the catchy tone.

[SF Monedge]

If I were a floor trader I would be keeping the portfolio intact with no dramatic adjustments, status quo with a slighter lean toward Dollar sell side through option spreads.  See no reason to be overly aggressive in switching the overall Dollar buy side but would definitely be fitting in a few new short out of the money and holding overall until decay sets in.  To this point it would take a bit to push a good manager to make wholesale changes I would think.

[GVI Forex 2]

PCE about as expected.. initial dovish reaction but no surprise

[GVI Forex 2]

PCE is a big market data release but the components are already known so any miss is seen as a big event.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4302
—
Question: will there be one rate cut before yr-end ?

Answer: in less than 10 minutes.

[Mtl JP]

and nevermind these two yakkers on deck
–
12:00 bowman
12:40 daly

[Mtl JP]

Friday 28th trading musings
–
08:30 – US PCE – Potential for price moving reaction
10:00 – US Mich Cons Conf – ditto re reaction

then … players likely to poof! early for the week-end

joker in the deck:
market reaction to potential week-end ambulatory carting off joe due to “health issues”

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

If TV debates decided elections, world markets seem remarkably calm about the prospect of a Donald Trump return to the White House as the first half of the trading year ends on Friday.

It may be too early to stake bets on November’s U.S. election outcome just yet, and there are many pressing issues on the table before then – not least a critical update on Friday on the PCE inflation gauge favored by the Federal Reserve and the first round of the French assembly election at the weekend.

Morning Bid: Parsing Biden TV flop, France poll, PCE time

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Supports at : 1.06850 &  1.06600

Resistances at : 1.07150 , 1.07250 , 1.07500 & 1.08300

I am not going to lie to you only cause I truly detest EUR – Seems as it had found the footing here.

Pattern suggests that we are about to break up in days to come – of course all depends on tonight’s Close !

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSDJPY DAILY CHART – 1.07 PATTERN

 

1.07 Pattern Extended to 6 days in a row, rewarding the range traders and penalizing the breakout players.

While trend is still down, the current consolidation around 1.07 suggests there will be a diredtional move once the pattern is broken (either 1.07 becomes support or resistance).

Key levels remain at

1.0666/1.0549/1.0600

1.0745/50/1.0761/1.0800/1.0852

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY hits AT Alert target

[Author]

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